Dragonfly

We're on the ground in Marrakech for the Safer Skies Forum! If you're attending, come say hello at our desk — we’d love to connect. Don’t miss our Director of Intelligence Operations, Joel Gulhane, speaking this Thursday at 8:30am on “Anticipating Conflict: The Importance of Early Warning.” He’ll be diving into how timely intelligence can make all the difference in aviation security. Looking forward to some great conversations and insights over the next few days! #aviation #aviationsecurity

Geostrategic competition in the Arctic is heating up. The Trump administration has signaled its intention to take control of Greenland, proposing a peaceful acquisition while keeping military options on the table. This move risks encouraging other major powers to adopt a similar stance toward other Arctic territories.  Key issues to monitor over the next few months include potential US-Russia deals on resource extraction, military provocations and challenges to Arctic governance. Read our latest assessment for a complete list of knock-on implications for anyone considering geopolitical and security risks for their organisations: https://lnkd.in/ezDBmTDM To access our latest assessments and analysis like this, please get in touch today: https://lnkd.in/eT-CAcAJ #Trump2.0 #Greenland #Russia #Security #geopolitics #securityintelligence

What high-impact issues could shape risk in Europe in 2025? In our Strategic Outlook 2025 report, we identified five key forecasts for Europe and explored how each could unfold over the coming year. Originally published in November, the report also features similarly concise forecasts for every global region — each with assessed likelihoods, potential consequences and key indicators to watch. Access Dragonfly’s definitive forecast on global security and geopolitical risks here: https://lnkd.in/eqjmbZVy #strategicoutlook2025 #SO25 #geopolitics #securityintelligence

Far-right extremists pose the most pressing terrorism threat in the US. As seen in the graphic below, our TerrorismTracker data suggests that the majority of violent incidents and plots during President Trump’s first term in office and President Biden’s term were carried out by far-right actors, rather than far-left extremists and jihadists. Our data also shows that attacks by far-right groups caused the most deaths over the past five years. This graphic featured in our recent intelligence assessment on the outlook for political violence in the US. Graphics such as this are available through our SIAS platform. To gain access, please get in touch with us: https://lnkd.in/eT-CAcAJ #geopolitics #terrorismtracker #securityintelligence

This week, Dragonfly was thrilled to join the Dow Jones family, together with our colleagues at Oxford Analytica. Dragonfly and Oxford Analytica will operate as part of Dow Jones Risk & Compliance, complementing its existing product suite with proprietary geopolitical risk and security intelligence. The strategic acquisition is the latest in a series aimed at building Dow Jones’s portfolio of specialized news, data, analysis and events for business professionals. ➡️Read more here: https://lnkd.in/eSFjCZwe ➡️ Dragonfly subscribers, please watch your Inbox for further information.

Every month, we provide our clients with an estimate of the overall trajectory for security and stability for each country for the coming 12 months. This April, we estimate that 43 countries face a worsening outlook over the coming 12 months, four fewer than last month. Only ten countries have an improving outlook over the coming year. Of these ten, seven are new additions to that list (Armenia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Germany, Kyrgyzstan, New Caledonia and Tajikistan). This assessment is part of our Geostrategic Estimate report, the definitive monthly briefing product that provides high-level, anticipatory analysis of emerging geostrategic risks and trends. It also includes emerging issues; dates and situations to watch; and more. To find out more about how your organisation can access the Geostrategic Estimate, please get in touch today:  https://lnkd.in/eT-CAcAJ #geopolitics #securityintelligence

What might a military coup d’etat in Pakistan look like? How might an organised uprising in Iran play out? And what could the implications be, if President Nicolas Maduro was removed from office in Venezuela? In this month’s Dragonfly Dispatch newsletter, our analysts outline three grey swan scenarios which your organisation might not be paying sufficient attention to, together with indicators to watch out for. Read the article here: https://lnkd.in/gxCp8diC #Pakistan #Iran #Venezuela #securityintelligence #geopolitics

Over the past six months, we've seen a surge in interest and engagement with our industry-leading TerrorismTracker database. To help our clients extract even greater insights, we’re rolling out a series of enhancements to improve visualisation and responsiveness. These upgrades make it easier to cluster and analyse events, navigate expanded legends, quickly access relevant country information — plus much more. ➡️ Dragonfly clients: Keep an eye on your inbox for full details. ➡️  Not a SIAS client? If you’d like a one-on-one demonstration of TerrorismTracker — the definitive resource for understanding global terrorism trends - please get in touch with our specialists today: https://lnkd.in/eT-CAcAJ #TerrorismTracker

*Dragonfly in the media* - Could Russia’s conditions for a ceasefire with Ukraine be met without Europe’s participation? Analyst Piotr Majda comments for Lloyd's List : https://lnkd.in/e24_Jhdz #Russia #Ukraine #geopolitics #securityintelligence