Sibylline Ltd

What Just Happened? Trump's 'Liberation Day' Tariffs In this episode, Ignacio J. A. and Claire Brady discuss President Trump's recent tariff announcements. They explore the motivations behind these tariffs, their calculation, global reactions, and potential domestic economic implications. The discussion highlights the significant impact these tariffs may have on international trade relations and the U.S. economy. Listen on Spotify: https://lnkd.in/eeX9E5Ax Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://lnkd.in/e6VZCdQi   If you enjoyed this episode, let us know by liking, subscribing or leaving a review! You can also contact us with any questions or feedback at info@sibylline.co.uk #RefinedInsight #LiberationDay #WhatJustHappened #Trump #Tariffs

“We know they’re doing it, we know exactly how they’re doing it and yet we’re not allowed to stop it. If we were serious, we would stop it. That’s the missing ingredient.” In a recent The New York Times article on NATO's Baltic Sentry operation, Justin Crump, our CEO, highlighted a critical gap in maritime security: While NATO effectively monitors suspected sabotage in the Baltic Sea, Russia's 'shadow fleet' continues to transport crude oil worldwide, funding its military activities despite international awareness of these operations. Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/duRnMmQz #RefinedInsight #Russia #GeopoliticalRisks #MaritimeSecurity

SOUTH KOREA: IMPEACHMENT VERDICT - IMPLICATIONS AND SECURITY RISKS On 4 April, the South Korean Constitutional Court confirmed Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment, removing him as president after he imposed a short-lived martial law last December. The political environment has become increasingly polarised since the martial law incident, with regular protests in Seoul from both supporters and detractors of Yoon. The verdict is likely to drive discontent from his supporter base. Additionally, South Korea will now have 60 days to hold a presidential election to replace Yoon. Join us as we discuss the implications of the court’s decision and what it could mean for South Korea’s political, security and economic trajectory in the near and long term. This briefing builds on the Situation Update Brief we produced in early March, which explored the potential outcomes. If you’d like to receive a copy of the report, please email info@sibylline.co.uk. Register here: https://lnkd.in/ey9uKp6E When registering for the event, please be aware that we do not accept personal email addresses. When registering, please use a corporate email address. If you are unable to register with a corporate email address, please email events@sibylline.co.uk. #RefinedInsight #SouthKorea #YoonSukyeol #Impeachment #Seoul

UP & OUT: FROM INSIGHT TO AUTHORITY (PART I) Empirical evidence illustrates that executive committees (ExCo) are focusing more on geopolitical risks and the widening range of downstream business impacts. In this iteration, we reveal the strategic opportunity for intelligence teams as ExCo perceptions of geopolitical risk increase and how intelligence managers can manoeuvre towards earning authority and institutionalising their teams' roles. There are three areas where intelligence teams can expend more focus to position themselves effectively with their ExCo teams and deliver tailored intelligence to support geopolitical risk: 🔹 Understanding their firm's operating model to assess impacts coherently. This entails researching growth strategy, key supply and demand-side market dependencies, different product/business lines, and footprint in the industry sectors in which your firm operates. 🔹 Strengthening their organizational awareness to understand the risk appetite of different business functions. Geopolitics generates differing impacts for firms, even those operating in the same industry sector. However, there are common themes, and building your understanding of how other functions track external developments will enable you to proactively identify areas you can support. 🔹 Framing insights around business priorities and decision-making needs. Intelligence analysts should drive engagement by framing insights around business priorities and decision-making needs. The Up & Out way of thinking is not always easy for analysts operating in a ‘security first’ environment. Building an intelligence team’s interface with an organisation's wider range of teams is a process. It requires an active effort to understand the work and speak the language of others in the business. The rewards of doing so can be significant. Read the article here: https://lnkd.in/eieHuhjv #RefinedInsight #UpandOut #GeopoliticalRisks #RiskIntelligence

Sibylline CEO Justin Crump spoke at the CSO/CISO Americas Pulse Conferences in NYC last week, facilitating a workshop on the convergence of physical and cyber security. In addition to the excellent sessions, the Sibylline team, including Alyssa Nayyar, Kit Gould, MBA, Leo Collins, and Kailyn Johnson, greatly enjoyed networking with colleagues and discussing the future of corporate and cyber security. Sibylline was also honoured to sponsor the networking dinner at The Yale Club of New York City, an iconic NYC venue! If you’d like to learn more about the convergence of physical and cyber risks and what it means for security teams and your organisation, just get in touch at info@sibylline.co.uk. #RefinedInsight #CyberSecurity #CorporateSecurity #CSO360 #CISO360

What Just Happened? The IDF's Latest Airstrikes on Beirut In this episode, Ignacio J. A. speaks with Middle East and Africa Analyst Megan Sutcliffe about the recent IDF airstrike on Beirut, its implications for the ceasefire with Hezbollah and the potential perpetrators behind recent rocket attacks. They explore the recent historical context of the ceasefire, the dynamics of the current situation and the likely future developments in the region. Listen on Spotify: https://lnkd.in/eweCYFMa Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://lnkd.in/eJtTUvVR If you enjoyed this episode, let us know by liking, subscribing or leaving a review! You can also contact us with any questions or feedback at info@sibylline.co.uk #RefinedInsight #Israel #Lebanon #WhatJustHappened

CYBER: PROTRACTED WAR IN UKRAINE WILL HIGHLY LIKELY INFORM RUSSIA’S CYBER STRATEGY IN SHORT, LONG TERM In H1 2023, Russian cyber operations against Ukraine increased by 123% compared to H2 2022; this was followed by a 19% rise in H1 2024 compared to H2 2023. These significant figures highlight the consistent adoption of cyber attacks by Russia in the war in Ukraine despite an overall decrease in intensity. The later stages of the war have also displayed a more tactical use of cyber operations by Russian state-sponsored groups, underscoring Moscow’s ability to integrate and adapt cyber tactics to shifting strategic objectives. Earlier in March, the Russian forces intensified their counter-offensive operations across the Kursk salient, significantly threatening Ukraine's prospects of maintaining its presence in the region. If Russia remains confident that it can achieve its goals through military action despite the resumption of US aid to Ukraine, it is unlikely to agree to the US ceasefire proposal made on 11 March. As such, we assess that Moscow will likely continue to supplement short-term kinetic efforts with cyber operations if fighting continues as well as longer-term destabilisation efforts against Ukraine and its Western partners. These regional updates are part of Sibylline's World Risk Register service. If you would like to discuss a free trial, please get in touch with our team by emailing info@sibylline.co.uk. #RefinedInsight #CyberWarfare #CyberEspionage #Disinformation #Russia

State-Sponsored Cyber Actors and Cyber Criminals | Sibylline Insight EP. 34   In this cyber episode of the Insight Podcast, Lead Analyst Kailyn Johnson and Associate Analyst Denise Schipani, two experts from our Cyber desk, sit down to explore the increasing collaboration between state-sponsored cyber actors and cyber criminals, highlighting the implications for cybersecurity, business risks and attribution challenges. Denise explains the commercialisation of cybercriminal tools and how state actors leverage these resources to enhance their operations. The conversation also delves into the long-term effects of adopting cybercriminal tactics and the future trends in cyber cooperation.    Watch the full episode on YouTube: https://lnkd.in/e8cWg5Cg Listen on Spotify: https://lnkd.in/ekfuyj5v Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://lnkd.in/eHjxTUAB   If you enjoyed this special cyber episode, let us know by liking, subscribing or leaving a review! You can also contact us with any questions or feedback: info@sibylline.co.uk #RefinedInsight #CyberCrime #CyberAttacks

What Just Happened? The Arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu In this episode, Ignacio J. A. speaks with Middle East and Africa Analyst Megan Sutcliffe about the recent detention of Turkish opposition leader Ekrem İmamoğlu, the subsequent protests in Turkey, and the international response to these events. They highlight the political climate in Turkey under President Erdogan, the implications of İmamoğlu's arrest, and the reactions from civil society and foreign governments. Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://lnkd.in/erJdR-AW Listen on Spotify: https://lnkd.in/ed6bG3nD #RefinedInsight #Turkey #Erdogan

In the last hour I’ve been contacted by many about the fire near #LHR (Heathrow), in the context of hybrid warfare. Ironically this is spookily exactly one of the scenarios my colleagues at Sibylline Ltd red teamed as part of a preparedness piece of work a year ago. I’m pleased to confirm though they all have alibis, so it wasn’t one of them trying to get a bonus. Having ruled that out, is this mishap or “enemy action”? The point of hybrid warfare is it’s hard to tell. The timing post Northwood meeting of military chiefs to support Coalition of the Willing is significant - maybe. Will there be a smoking gun? Maybe, but hard if any possible sabotage was well executed and fundamentally hard to tell from vandalism (unless clearly a malfunction which would rule out enemy action - mostly). The issue is that once hybrid warfare is happening, wondering about every incident isnt hugely useful for companies. Rather the point is that the overall probability and impact of events is rising, and so crises - whether genuine or driven by adversaries - will impact us more often. See the wood, don’t focus on each tree, is perhaps the lesson as best as I can think of after only one coffee. The implication remains that resilient thinking is vital - what could be written off as low probability before is now more likely, and complacency will be punished. Planning, exercising, and testing will be key in this environment along with thinking the unthinkable, a challenge I have often set out to those who have worked with or been coached by me. I suspect that the UK will shortly see a major shift in preparedness and many European partners are already on this journey; one might argue not before time. I’m now off to deal with the immediate implication, which is the impact on my scheduled US travel over the coming week (NYC and D.C.). Luckily, I happen to have a plan for that, and although this wasn’t the crisis I was anticipating in particular, I’m therefore at least mostly prepared to have my team step up to cover critical meetings and events. Smug! *Disclaimer, this is more often NOT the case but I won’t tell you about those times, this is LinkedIn after all. (Spurious Concorde picture at Heathrow because why not brighten everyone’s day? Also a visual reminder of the 1,320 plus flights a day from an airport that has no surrounding capacity to mitigate shocks.)