Oxford Analytica

*A new edition of Oxford Analytica Insights is out* - Grey Swan events are not wholly unpredictable like Black Swans, but they can be equally problematic and no decision-maker can afford to be surprised by them. Oxford Analytica's Global Risk Monitor (GRM) tracks low-likelihood, high-impact risks that would cause significant disruption if they came about. This month, Oxford Analytica Insights outlines three of the grey swans tracked in the GRM - so you can keep them on your radar more easily. Read the article below 👇 And while you’re there, don’t forget to sign up to Oxford Analytica Insights, to get each edition directly to your inbox!

We're delighted to have made our first contribution to Dow Jones #RiskJournal this week! #RiskJournal provides trusted news and actionable insights for risk and compliance professionals as well as senior leaders throughout an organization. Find out more here: https://lnkd.in/eXRUH6H2

GRAPHIC ANALYSIS — US tariffs will unsettle Colombia’s coffee sector. A 10% ‘reciprocal’ tariff imposed by Washington this month on Colombian imports looks likely to dampen a coffee boom. Impacts: ➡️ Coffee producers in Hawaii, California, Puerto Rico and Guam may benefit from the tariffs, but will never meet US demand. ➡️ Colombian growers of other crops such as flowers and cacao also face uncertainty; flower exports especially focus on the US market. ➡️ Uncertainty in legal crop markets could further discourage coca growers from participating in voluntary crop substitution programmes. Would you like to know more? 📩 Start your free trial today of the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief to receive impartial and actionable analysis of emerging trends and developments, delivered straight to your inbox every business day: https://lnkd.in/eQhVpM7v #tariffs #colombia #coffee #imports

🖥️ WEBINAR: Europe’s Defence Dilemmas 🕒 DATE/TIME: Wednesday, April 23, 10:00am - 11:00am EDT | 3:00pm - 4:00pm BST Oxford Analytica invites you to a webinar considering the challenges for European states to indigenise their security arrangements. European states have for years relied on a US-centred NATO for military security. Although the EU forged deep integration in commercial and other domains, it has always been a subsidiary actor to NATO. However, the Trump administration’s outreach to Russia and doubts over its commitment to NATO have pushed European states to consider how they might defend themselves without US military strength and enablement: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, a lifelong Atlanticist, has underscored the need urgently to address this question. However, the scale of the challenge is huge and doubts remain over whether there is the will and unity of purpose in Europe to indigenise NATO as a European entity. Moreover, the volatile nature of decision-making in the Trump White House offers an argument that the United States can be persuaded to remain onboard. In this webinar, we will examine: 🌎 The unique capabilities that the United States brings to NATO 🌎 The force requirements that Europe might need to generate to meet a Russian military challenge 🌎 The capability gaps that exist within European militaries, with and without Turkey 🌎 Roughly how much time and money it might take for European to plug any gaps created by a US withdrawal 🗣️ Presenter: Dr. Richard Connolly, Senior Analyst 🎤 Moderator: Dr. Nicholas Redman, Director of Analysis ➡️ Register now! https://lnkd.in/ef4muf9K #EU #defense #security #militarysecurity #NATO

GRAPHIC ANALYSIS — Turkish democracy may buckle under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ambitions. The jailing of his main rival seems to be part of an effort by Erdogan to consolidate power. Impacts: ▪️ Erdogan is hoping to end the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)’s insurgency and turn the Turkish economy around in time for new elections. ▪️ The CHP may need to explore replacing Imamoglu as its presidential candidate; Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas is a strong contender. ▪️ Even if their momentum can be maintained, current levels of protests seem unlikely to oust Erdogan. ▪️ Erdogan will look to exploit judicial cases against prominent figures in the West to deflect criticism from abroad. Would you like to know more? 📩 Start your free trial today of the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief to receive impartial and actionable analysis of emerging trends and developments, delivered straight to your inbox every business day: https://lnkd.in/eQhVpM7v #turkey #democracy #geopolitics

VIDEO ANALYSIS — Oxford Analytica's Niall Walsh, Analyst, Western Europe, breaks down Europe's evolving defense landscape, highlighting the strategic implications of increased spending, shifting alliances, and long-term resilience. 📧 Stay up-to-date on this issue and other emerging trends and developments in the global political economy — sign up for your free trial of the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief: https://lnkd.in/eQhVpM7v  #EU #europe #defensespending #geopolitics

GRAPHIC ANALYSIS — Tariff turmoil hits global GDP and raises crisis risks. The new US tariffs hit Asia and Europe hard; US bilateral talks with these regions will be key to world economic impacts. Impacts: — World cooperation will be far less than in the global financial crisis, and foreign aid and budget spending less than during COVID-19. — Nations with largely domestic-driven GDP and diversified exports by sector and partner will be more insulated from tariff turmoil impacts. — Intra-regional trade will rise, especially within Asia, Europe and USMCA-compliant sectors in North America. — If most nations were to get their US tariff rate cut to 10% or less, equity markets would rally strongly. 📨 Stay up to date on emerging trends and developments in the global political economy every working day — subscribe to the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief. https://lnkd.in/eQhVpM7v #tariffs #globalGDP #asia #europe #geopolitics 

VIDEO ANALYSIS — Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s new government aims to ease domestic and international concerns by including ministers who represent the country's ethnic and religious minorities. 🗣️ Oxford Analytica’s Rawan Maayeh, Senior Analyst, MENA, examines how this move fits into broader efforts to address internal divisions, ease external pressure and navigate the serious risk of fragmentation amid ongoing regional tensions. For more insights into navigating the complexities of the global political economy, request a free trial of the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief. https://lnkd.in/eQhVpM7v #MENA #syria #middleeast #geopolitics

VIDEO ANALYSIS — Richard Connolly, Oxford Analytica Senior Analyst, Russia/CIS, examines the recent Black Sea ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, brokered by the Trump Administration. He explores the obstacles to its implementation, including Russia's demands for sanctions relief and Europe's reluctance to engage in negotiations with Moscow. 💡 For more insights into navigating the complexities of the global political economy, request a free trial of the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief. https://lnkd.in/eQhVpM7v #russia #ukraine #blacksea #CIS #moscow

GRAPHIC ANALYSIS — Eastern US states are expected to face a nuclear power crunch, with alack of recent requests to extend the operational licences of reactors threatens a fall in nuclear generation capacity. Impacts: ⚡ Increased electricity demand from data centres and AI development will add to pressure on existing generating capacity. ⚡ Only California’s Diablo Canyon plant has so far had a renewal request resubmitted following an increase in power demand. ⚡ The nuclear sector’s almost total reliance on imported uranium concentrate may become problematic in an extended trade war. ⚡ A second licence renewal, extending operational life from 60 to 80 years, is now possible (five applications are under review) but costly. For more insights on navigating the complexities of the global political economy, request a free trial of the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief. https://lnkd.in/eQhVpM7v #nuclearpower #electricity #datacenter #AI