Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

Last week, on 25-26 March, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies participated in the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe EGRM and GEG Cross-cutting Session titled ‘Hydrogen as a resource’. During the event, OIES presented a recently published paper on natural hydrogen, a collaborative effort between the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and the Bureau of Economic Geology at UT Austin, which discusses natural hydrogen’s potential role in a net-zero carbon future. 👉 Link to research paper: https://lnkd.in/etEcnTCg Key points: 💠 There are still significant uncertainties regarding native hydrogen’s origin and accumulation mechanisms, as well as the locations of its most likely occurrences. 💠 At present, the only proven reserve of natural hydrogen is in Mali. 💠 If exploration activities lead to multiple discoveries of significant native hydrogen resources, large-scale production could become economically viable and attractive. 💠 At the moment, due to all the uncertainties, although native hydrogen could have a potentially high impact, its probability remains low #decarbonization #energy #geologicalhydrogen #Hydrogen #nativehydrogen #netzerocarbon

New Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Podcast discusses Challenges and Opportunities for Renewable Hydrogen in Europe 👉 Link to Podcast: https://lnkd.in/e5PeRj3M 👉 Link to related Publication: https://lnkd.in/efRvcgxq 🎙️ In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Anne-Sophie Corbeau about the EU’s plans for #RenewableHydrogen, with a particular focus on the #IndustrialSector. 🎙️ The discussion starts with a description of the current state of the hydrogen market in #Europe before defining the nature of renewable hydrogen in particular and explaining why it is being given such a high priority by the #EU. 🎙️ The targets set in the #REDIII directive are then discussed, before we move on to the actions being taken by individual member states to implement them and the implications of the divergences that are emerging between countries. 🎙️ We then look at particular sectors which are being affected by the new initiatives and look at the question of cost competitiveness and the need to incentivise demand in order to support the transition process. 🎙️ Finally, we examine the need for new infrastructure and assess whether enough is being done to ensure that the full hydrogen value chain is in place. All of our podcasts are also available on #Spotify and #AppleMusic #hydrogen #RED3 #renewable #EU #industry

Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Head of Carbon Management Research Hasan Muslemani featured in an article by The Wall Street Journal on the benefits of retrofitting energy-from-waste (EfW) facilities with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. 💠 This is in light of recent and world's first purchase of carbon dioxide removal (#CDR) credits from an #EfW facility with #CCS: Hafslund Oslo Celsio in Norway. 💠 Producing energy from waste, coupled with CCS, is considered a more environmentally-sound way of dealing with residual #waste than its alternative: waste dumping or landfilling, as both lead to long-term negative impacts on the environment including release of methane emissions. ❗ OIES published a number of studies and podcasts on the potential to retrofit EU and UK EfW plants with CCS. ------------------------------------------------------ 📜 Research Papers: 👉 'Europe's untapped potential to generate valuable negative emissions from EfW with carbon capture technology' https://lnkd.in/eUyC4idY 👉 'Carbon capture from energy-from-waste: A low-hanging fruit for CCS deployment in the UK?' https://lnkd.in/e6sSyn6j ------------------------------------------------------ 🔈 Podcasts: 👉 EU market analysis https://lnkd.in/ebETGNpD 👉 UK market analysis https://lnkd.in/eiPW_ZNd #carbonmanagement #EfW #wastemanagement #energytransition https://lnkd.in/dQGhv4Cy

Last week Beth Hebditch, CCSA’s Head of UK Policy, spoke at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Carbon Management Day. 👥 Alongside Stuart Haszeldene (Professor of CCS, The University of Edinburgh) and Dan Maleski (CBAM Lead, Redshaw Advisors), Beth discussed the status of the UK’s policy landscape for CCUS and the steps toward a self-sustaining market, as well as the importance of immediate action to reduce subsidies and meet net zero targets. 🔎 The event brought together industry leaders, policymakers, academics, and stakeholders to explore key developments in CCUS policy, regulation, carbon dioxide removals (CDRs), and carbon markets, as well as the broader market and contractual frameworks shaping the sector. A huge thank you to Hasan Muslemani and the OIES team for organising the event and providing a platform for valuable and insightful discussions.

🌍 Last week’s Oxford Institute for Energy Studies workshop brought together leading experts from North America, Europe, and Asia - spanning industry, government, international organizations, academia, consultancy, and NGOs. ⚽ A key focus was the EU’s pioneering role in making methane emissions from fossil fuels subject to import requirements, such as MRV (Measurement, Reporting, and Verification), with an initial emphasis on #naturalgas and #LNG. However, the potential impact on the crude oil market cannot be overlooked. 🏈 Recent changes introduced by the US administration - such as halting the enforcement of OOOOb/OOOOc - signal a fundamental shift in the government’s role in regulating the private sector, creating uncertainty for US producers and exporters. Whether voluntary and market-based initiatives can fill this gap remains to be seen. ⚾ Asian buyers are closely monitoring the issue, requiring exporters to provide methane emissions data associated with specific projects. Meanwhile, regulatory developments in the Middle East, Latin America, and North Africa remain limited, with a few exceptions. 💡 While #measurement and #verification complexities persist, significant progress in methane science and detection/quantification technologies over the past decade has reinforced confidence that effective solutions are within reach. 🌐 The discussions underscored the importance of global collaboration in addressing #methaneemissions and global MRV standards. 👉 For latest publication on EU methane import requirement, please see: https://lnkd.in/eRyQ3GrJ

New Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Energy Comment discusses Russia-US thaw and possible Defrosting of Arctic LNG sanctions 👉 Link to Comment: https://lnkd.in/e2jDNX7p Key points: 💠 Context for a boost to Russian LNG exports is the loss of most of Gazprom’s European pipeline market, which declined from a peak of almost 180 bcm in 2019 to 31 bcm in 2024 and that flow fell further to the equivalent of 17.5 bcma in the period from 1 January to 16 March 2025, following the end of all remaining Ukraine transit flows on 1 January 2025 💠 All residual Russian volumes are now delivered to southeast European and Balkan markets through the Turkish Stream pipeline operating at close to full capacity on the border between Turkey and Bulgaria 💠 In an attempt to counter that loss of volume, Russia has pivoted its marketing efforts south and east, seeking to maximize gas trade with its central Asian neighbours to the south and boost exports to China further east, where volumes transported through the Power of Siberia 1 (POS-1) pipeline ramped up to full capacity in December 2024 💠 While western sanctions have frozen Russian plans to expand its LNG sector, an easing of US sanctions could allow planned projects beyond Arctic LNG 2 to move towards FID 💠 Currently, Russian LNG largely comes from Sakhalin in Russia’s Far East and Yamal in Russia’ North-West. There are also two smaller plants - Portovaya and Vysotsk in the Baltic, both under US sanctions since January. 💠Sakhalin LNG almost all goes to Japan, Korea, China and Chinese Taipei. Yamal LNG has mostly gone to Europe with some volumes to Asia, mainly China. Portovaya volumes have gone to Greece and Turkey largely with some to Spain and China, while Vysotsk volumes have all gone to Europe with Belgium being the principal importer. While Arctic LNG 2 is a near neighbour to Yamal, almost all the volumes are contracted to Asia, mainly China. 💠 For Arctic LNG-2 to restart operations, the US would need to lift the threat of secondary sanctions on companies seeking to buy cargoes from the project. If that threat was lifted, Train 1 could bring its nameplate capacity of 6.6 MTPA of additional LNG supply to market from as early as the third quarter of this year, softening global LNG balances #lng #sanctions #russia #europe #china #gas

In a discussion paper in collaboration with KAPSARC, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, KAUST (King Abdullah University of Science and Technology), Clean Air Task Force, and Global CCS Institute, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies explores Saudi Arabia's plans to expand its current storage capacity to 44 million tons annually by 2035. 💠 Saudi Arabia stands at a pivotal point where it can lead the Middle Eastern region in carbon capture and storage (#CCS) deployment, with significant potential in geological carbon storage and opportunities for carbon mineralization. 💠 Saudi Arabia has the capacity to store up to 318 gigatons of CO2 in its saline aquifers, with an additional 5.2 gigatons available in depleted gas reservoirs. 💠 As a nation with a significant stake in the global energy landscape, an extensive oil and gas industry, and hydrocarbons and chemicals industry with a substantial carbon footprint, Saudi Arabia stands at a crossroads where it can play a pivotal role in addressing climate change while securing its own economic future. #carbonmanagement #energytransition #climateaction

New Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Research Paper discusses the economics of decarbonising Europe’s ammonia industry 👉 Link to Research Paper: https://lnkd.in/emQjzCiB   💠 Study provides a comprehensive economic analysis of four key hydrogen production pathways: Steam Methane Reforming (SMR), SMR with CCS, Biomass Gasification (BIOH₂), and Renewable Electrolysis-based hydrogen for ammonia synthesis across 52 fertiliser production sites in Europe, UK, Norway 💠 Under a Reference Case Scenario, where no subsidies or carbon prices applied, SMR-based ammonia production remains most financially viable option due to its low operating costs and limited reinvestment requirements 💠 Low-carbon hydrogen-based ammonia pathways exhibit significantly lower NPVs due to the high capital costs associated with new infrastructure investments; renewable ammonia is between 50% and 300% more expensive than SMR, even in regions with abundant renewable resources 💠Analysis finds that a $1/kg H₂ subsidy improves NPV of renewable ammonia by approximately 36% on a European average helping to close the cost gap with fossil-based production but in high-energy-cost countries such as Germany and Austria even subsidies do not fully bridge the financial gap due to high costs of large-scale battery storage and oversized renewable generation 💠 Per-country averages illustrate that while some regions such as specific locations in Poland and Spain require modest subsidies (approximately 0.43 to 0.47 $/kg H₂), many locations fall far outside this range and this disparity signals that a one-size-fits-all subsidy approach would be ineffective 💠 By 2040, cost reductions in electrolysers, battery storage, and renewable energy deployment expected to improve competitiveness of renewable ammonia but cost declines are not automatic and require early, decisive investment to unlock positive learning spillovers, cost reduction, and economies of scale 💠 RED III mandate for hourly matching emerges as a significant financial burden for green ammonia projects and a more significant economic barrier than carbon pricing or even the lack of subsidies in many regions 💠 Study finds that US-produced ammonia from CCS, BIOH₂, and renewable hydrogen can meet stringent EU carbon intensity reduction thresholds 💠 By 2030, ammonia produced via BIOH₂ and CCS in the US is projected to be more cost-competitive than even depreciated SMR-based ammonia in Europe and by 2040, US renewable ammonia is expected to surpass European production in cost competitiveness due to declining electrolyzer costs and improved efficiencies #ammonia #greenammonia #decarbonization #europe #hydrogen #us

A new Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Energy Insight looks at decline in Russian pipeline supply to Europe and assesses the challenges in overcoming those obstacles 👉 Link to OIES Energy Insight: https://lnkd.in/ervR76Ex Key challenges include: 1️⃣ Transportation capacity: Both lines of Nord Stream 1 are damaged, Nord Stream 2 is unable to launch without approval from the German authorities, and the Yamal-Europe pipeline is closed to transit via Poland due to sanctions. Transit via Ukraine halted on 31 December 2024 and will not restart in the absence of a durable and lasting political settlement to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This leaves only Turkish Stream, which is currently operating close to full capacity. 2️⃣ Spot trading: Gazprom halted sales via its Electronic Sales Platform in October 2021 and withdrew from its downstream European trading subsidiaries in April 2022. Re-establishing subsidiaries may not be possible if arbitration awards remain outstanding and Gazprom assets in Europe remain at risk of seizure for enforcement of awards. 3️⃣ Long-term contracts: Gazprom has already seen several long-term contracts expire without renewal since April 2022, while other have been terminated either following the conclusion of arbitration or unilaterally. Other contracts have been suspended following the refusal of Gazprom’s counterparties to accede to the demand to pay in rubles or following the closure of pipeline transportation capacity routes. Both the ruble payment and supply shortfall issues have resulted in arbitration cases, and Gazprom’s approach at present is to file anti-suit injunctions with Russian arbitration courts, rather than pay awards made to its European counterparties in European arbitration courts. This implies that once Gazprom’s European contracts have expired or been terminated, European buyers are unlikely to sign new terms with Gazprom. 💠 As a result of the developments, Gazprom has been left with just one delivery route to the European market (the Turkish Stream pipeline and its onward connections from the Turkey-Hungary border as far north as Hungary and Slovakia), and roughly 15 Bcma of long-term contracts from a portfolio that was an estimated 150 Bcma prior to 2022. 💠 It is unlikely that the challenges relating to delivery routes, spot trading, and long term contracts will be overcome in order to enable the volume of Russian pipeline supply to Europe to ‘rebound’ from its current level, especially if it is to happen before the wave of new LNG supply renders Europe a much more competitive market than when Gazprom mostly withdrew from it in 2022-24. #gassupply #gas #europe #russia #sanctions #geopolitics #gastrading

On 27 March 2025, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies hosted its 3rd annual Carbon Management Day, bringing together global experts on carbon capture and storage (CCS), carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and carbon markets representing industry, academia, consultancy and government. Key discussion topics include: 💠 Business models for CCS and carbon storage 💠 Evolution of CCS industry into a self-sustaining market 💠 Rise of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (#CBAM) and their impact on industry and trade flows 💠 Potential linkage of UK and EU Emission Trading Systems #EUETS #UKETS 💠 Enablers for #crossborder CO2 transport, including contractual arrangements amongst parties 💠 Role of CO2 non-pipeline transport (#NPT) in enabling CCS 💠 Opportunities and challenges for CO2 #shipping 💠 Inclusion of non-pipeline CO2 transport into ETSs 💠 Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (#MRV) for CDR and CCS OIES wishes to thank all speakers and attendees for their valuable and insightful contributions to the event. To learn more about OIES’s carbon management research, visit https://lnkd.in/e92AsGkz or contact Hasan Muslemani Tim Dixon, Stuart Haszeldine, Beth Hebditch, Paul Zakkour, Ryan Edwards, Dan Maleski, Navraj Ghaleigh, Namrata Janani, Kostas Papadakis #carbonmanagement #energytransition #climateaction