New Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Energy Comment discusses Russia-US thaw and possible Defrosting of Arctic LNG sanctions 👉 Link to Comment: https://lnkd.in/e2jDNX7p Key points: 💠 Context for a boost to Russian LNG exports is the loss of most of Gazprom’s European pipeline market, which declined from a peak of almost 180 bcm in 2019 to 31 bcm in 2024 and that flow fell further to the equivalent of 17.5 bcma in the period from 1 January to 16 March 2025, following the end of all remaining Ukraine transit flows on 1 January 2025 💠 All residual Russian volumes are now delivered to southeast European and Balkan markets through the Turkish Stream pipeline operating at close to full capacity on the border between Turkey and Bulgaria 💠 In an attempt to counter that loss of volume, Russia has pivoted its marketing efforts south and east, seeking to maximize gas trade with its central Asian neighbours to the south and boost exports to China further east, where volumes transported through the Power of Siberia 1 (POS-1) pipeline ramped up to full capacity in December 2024 💠 While western sanctions have frozen Russian plans to expand its LNG sector, an easing of US sanctions could allow planned projects beyond Arctic LNG 2 to move towards FID 💠 Currently, Russian LNG largely comes from Sakhalin in Russia’s Far East and Yamal in Russia’ North-West. There are also two smaller plants - Portovaya and Vysotsk in the Baltic, both under US sanctions since January. 💠Sakhalin LNG almost all goes to Japan, Korea, China and Chinese Taipei. Yamal LNG has mostly gone to Europe with some volumes to Asia, mainly China. Portovaya volumes have gone to Greece and Turkey largely with some to Spain and China, while Vysotsk volumes have all gone to Europe with Belgium being the principal importer. While Arctic LNG 2 is a near neighbour to Yamal, almost all the volumes are contracted to Asia, mainly China. 💠 For Arctic LNG-2 to restart operations, the US would need to lift the threat of secondary sanctions on companies seeking to buy cargoes from the project. If that threat was lifted, Train 1 could bring its nameplate capacity of 6.6 MTPA of additional LNG supply to market from as early as the third quarter of this year, softening global LNG balances #lng #sanctions #russia #europe #china #gas
