Adaptogen Capital

Our Managing Director James Mills spoke to Ed Porter on the Modo Energy Transmission podcast about all thinks BESS and Net Zero System related. We have confidence the technology already exists to run the digitised, and de-centralised Net Zero Grid of the future. Where we differ with others perhaps is our belief that that the only way to optimise such a complex energy system is to allow real time price signals to determine asset behavior, and to ensure open market access for BESS to compete against fossil fuel and subsidised generation. National Energy System Operator Find the episode on Youtube, Spotify or Apple and let us know what you think! https://lnkd.in/eZcn9Hre https://lnkd.in/eBHW2QQ6

I had fun talking to Ed Porter on the Modo Energy Transmission podcast about all thinks BESS and Net Zero System related. At Adaptogen Capital we have confidence the technology already exists to run the digitised, and de-centralised Net Zero Grid of the future. Where we differ with others perhaps is our belief that that the only way to optimise such a complex energy system is to allow real time price signals to determine asset behavior, and to ensure open market access for BESS to compete against fossil fuel and subsidised generation. National Energy System Operator Find the episode on Youtube, Spotify or Apple and let me know what you think! https://lnkd.in/e55iD7CV https://lnkd.in/eBHW2QQ6

Adaptogen Capital is pleased to share that our Managing Director, James Mills, will be participating in a panel discussion titled "Scaling Storage for 2040: The Role of Storage in Long-Term Network Planning" at the upcoming Energy Storage Summit 2025. 📅 Event Date: February 17-19, 2025 📍 Location: InterContinental London – The O2, London, United Kingdom We invite all attendees to join us for this insightful session and to engage with our team. This event represents a significant opportunity to explore the future of energy storage and its critical role in sustainable network planning. We look forward to connecting with industry leaders and discussing innovative solutions that will shape the future of energy. #EnergyStorageSummit2025 #AdaptogenCapital #SustainableEnergy #EnergyStorage #NetworkPlanning

Lion Hirth’s work triggered our focus on battery investments over ten years ago and remains as valid today as it did then. Our uninformed and un-academic gut feeling is the capture rate will accelerate to zero over the next 15% increase in penetration.

We're excited that our portfolio company Varco Energy is expanding its partnership with Arenko by deploying their fully integrated asset management software platform and we look forward to the enhanced control that Nimbus will bring to our portfolio.

Battery Energy Storage Systems are critical infrastructure to help balance the intermittent nature of renewable energy generation and break the UK's reliance on fossil fuels. We are therefore delighted that our portfolio company Varco Energy will collaborate with GE Vernova on our 47.5MW (2hr duration) Sambar Power project.

The economic value of wind energy is moving away from the upstream generation of that power to when and where and with what quality it is delivered to the customer. What excites us as a BESS investor is the path to operating an 80-90% renewable system is clear and totally achievable with existing technology. However it does require a regulatory and economic acknowledgment of the complex and systemic within-day volatility that this net zero grid creates. This in turn requires industrial scale hedging with storage and a fully digitised grid to manage that complexity.

For those interested in renewable value cannibalisation/duck curves and the value or dangers of interconnectedness, Lion Hirth is the academic we look to first and foremost, and this new paper is a welcome addition to his research. Our take? 1) Solar market values rapidly plunge above 20% penetration, but could this impact accelerate towards zero before the theoretically suggested 60% rate? The duck curve has appeared earlier in the UK than we expected but maybe explained by 2) Interconnectors exaggerate Solar cross border cannibalisation effects, although mitigate domestic wind penetration impacts. 3) Hydro Storage empirically mitigates renewable market value destruction, but with limited sources of future hydro across Europe, this is where other storage technologies can come in to add value to renewable generation. 4) Just as we are having to 'unlearn' the idea that baseload generation is a good thing in renewable markets, so maybe we need to realise interconnectors can introduce as a well as mitigate risks. IE small markets with high interconnector capacity can experience an accelerated destruction of domestic renewable generation value by being overwhelmed by large neighbouring market developments.

The COST of generating solar in high insolation countries has collapsed ,(whilst the cost of offshore wind in decent locations has also fallen but not by as much). However the VALUE of solar and wind generation to a power system has also collapsed as penetration rates of those technologies have risen. So many of the regulatory and financing problems the renewable generation industry faces today (merchant pricing/cfd’s,locational pricing,constraints) stem from the failure of policy makers and industry participants to acknowledge this fact. We must increasingly value/pay for and finance renewable energy according to When, Where , and with What reliability it is delivered to the system. Adaptogen Capital believes the greatest economic value for green energy will be generated in the midstream storage assets that shape and load shift those green MWs.# Varco Energy # Arenko # Rupert Newland # Roger Hollies