Solar's Exponential Rise: Cheaper, Faster, Unstoppable?

💡 Hugely compelling visual: are we entering the age of super-cheap, super-abundant solar energy? I saw this graph around 10 years ago. Some could question the underlying data or methodology, but: 1) the graph surely presents energy costs in a bold manner; 2) I doubt anyone could prove the key point wrong.

Then, one could look at a key global reference in renewables cost data: the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) costing reports that the great Michael Taylor has been leading for years and which have an incredible depth of analysis and data. See graph below.

Michael is a great fan of compelling visuals and thoughtful data representation, he is one of my inspirations in this field. The point in IRENA's graph is still the same, although now compared in more uniform terms with power generation technologies.

Finally, we might ask why this is happening. An important part of the answer may come from Wright’s Law*. But what happened in the last year (big overcapacity in China driving costs even below what Wright's Law can explain) is outstanding, as shown in the next graph by Ember .

The Economist did an article on the subject a few months ago. I now reproduce a few sentences: "To call solar power's rise exponential is not hyperbole, but a statement of fact. Installed solar capacity doubles (...) grows tenfold each decade. Such sustained growth is seldom seen in anything that matters. That makes it hard for people to get their heads round what is going on. (...). The next ten-fold increase will be equivalent to multiplying the world's entire fleet of nuclear reactors by eight in less than the time it typically takes to build just a single one of them."

In future posts of this newsletter we will be analysing implications, e.g. on extraordinary deployment levels, on needs for flexibility in the power system, or on the role of (smart, digital) grids on this.

You may see it differently—opinions always welcome!

📌 References: Bernstein Research (2014) cited by Ramez Naam; IRENA (2024); Ember (2024), The Economist (2024)

[* Wright’s Law: technologies get cheaper with deployment, and they get deployed more as they get cheaper]

#SolarPV #Era #Exponential #Competitiveness

📋About: "Visual Energy Transition" newsletter offers an image-driven perspective on the energy transition and related issues: concise, insightful, quality-driven and respectful of sources. Different views all welcome. Usual disclaimers apply (personal views, not employers' or clients'; informational purpose, no accuracy/completeness/reliability guarantee; no responsibility/liability)