Barclays Investment Bank

Global economic forces to 👀 for the week of 14 April, according to our Research team. 👇 ◾ The US retreated from reciprocal tariffs, with an upswing in bond yields a key catalyst for the pause. Market jitters continued amid an escalation of retaliatory tariffs with China. ◾ The pause in reciprocal tariffs only partially contained financial market fallout, as rising Treasury yields and a weakening dollar suggest flows out of USD assets. An escalating US-China trade war adds to global growth fears, and the focus is now on tariff negotiations and central banks. ◾ Our analysts continue to forecast a euro area recession in H2 despite the US tariff pause as announcements about exempted goods and updates on trade negotiations will be key to reassess the impact on growth. In the UK, our analysts expect labour market and inflation data this week to both show easing. ◾ The 90-day pause seems to reduce the likelihood that Emerging Asia is headed for the worst-case GDP outcome, but negotiations will be more important than ever. Monetary easing is likely across most economies. ◾ Idiosyncratic stories are developing in Latin America. Domestic dynamics shape some, like Ecuador's elections, but others are catalysed by US pressures, as in Mexico, Venezuela, and Panama. Read more in our latest Weekly Insights: http://ms.spr.ly/6040qAZQs

🚨 New Episode Alert: Tariffs have been introduced and subsequently paused – what does this mean for the economy? Listen as Brad Rogoff and Ajay R. break it down. 🔗 Link in comments.

Listen to the two sides of the #AI story in our latest Flip Side episode. Brad Rogoff, thinks the AI bubble might have overinflated with hyperscalers investing too much in compute power. Ross Sandler, on the other hand, sees plenty of potential growth ahead with the shift to reasoning models and specialized chips. Who's right? 🔗 Link in comments.

📈 NEW REPORT: How to supercharge the 🇬🇧 UK-India 🇮🇳 economic partnership, for mutual growth? Our latest report identifies four key areas of focus: trade, investment, payments and government mechanisms. We believe now is the time to accelerate progress between the world’s fifth 🇮🇳 and sixth 🇬🇧 largest economies. Learn more about the report’s findings: https://lnkd.in/daQez6fc

Kristin DeClark, our Global Head of Technology Investment Banking, joined CNBC to discuss the outlook for the tech M&A environment in light of recent market volatility, and what key indicators of market stability provide may provide businesses with reassurance to pursue their IPOs. Watch her full segment for more insights.

Meghan Graper, our Global Head of Debt Capital Markets, spoke to Bloomberg News about the factors impacting Fed rate decisions and the outlook for Investment Grade credit against a backdrop of choppy market conditions. The Investment Grade market, while not immune, has remained a safe harbour for issuers and investors. Meghan also discussed foreign investments and how that may be an area to watch moving forward. See her segment on BBG (2:13): https://lnkd.in/egr6XK6h

Barclays’ Q1 2025 Review of Shareholder Activism has just been released to clients. Here’s what Jim Rossman and our Investment Banking Shareholder Advisory team found in the data: 📢 Activist activity remains strong with 70 campaigns launched in Q1, despite global uncertainty 🇺🇸 US campaign activity was up 43% year-over-year and constituted 57% of global activity, higher than we have seen in the past two years 🇯🇵 Japan was the second busiest jurisdiction, with 16 campaigns, whilst Europe activity remains subdued with 10 campaigns vs a three-year-average of 15 🏢 Unusually high concentration of campaigns in the Industrials, Technology and Healthcare sectors – comprising of 66% of all campaigns YTD 🤝 M&A campaign demands were down, featuring in just 26% of campaigns vs. 45% four-year-average 🗃️ Strategy & Operations demands continue at an elevated pace, consistent with 2024’s trend 🪑 Activists won 51 board seats, up 34% year-over-year and matching 2023’s record pace 💼 More activists are launching proxy fights – with 13 finished or prospective proxy fights in the US for Q1 #ShareholderActivism #BoardChange #ProxyVoting

We are pleased to welcome Andrew Woeber as Global Head of M&A. With over 25-years’ experience advising on complex, transformational transactions for some of the biggest companies in the world, Andrew will enhance our ability to deliver value for clients through strategic advice and integrated solutions. https://lnkd.in/eSpehayP

Global economic forces to 👀 for the week of 7 April, according to our Research team. 👇 ◾ The announced US tariffs upend global trade, leading to slower growth across the regions and higher #inflation in the US, which may limit the Fed's actions while other central banks can ease. ◾US #tariffs are likely to drag more on UK growth than we previously assumed, reducing our analysts’ GDP outlook and raising their forecast for unemployment. ◾ In the euro area, our analysts forecast a #recession in 2025, with inflation moving sideways. #ECB should ease more and quicker than expected, bringing the depo rate to 1.25% by October. ◾ Our analysts cut their GDP forecast for China to 4.0%, on new tariffs, slowing external demand with likely mild US and EU recessions, and more policy support. ◾ Latin America was relatively spared in the tariff announcements, which could eventually favour some trade replacement. However, slower global growth and lower commodities will still be negative for the region. https://lnkd.in/ej3Zv4qH

We are pleased to welcome Jason Short as a Managing Director within our Financial Sponsors Group in Investment Banking. With a nearly 20-year career in financial services, Jason rejoins Barclays leveraging his extensive skillset and network to enhance our delivery and strengthen relationships with financial sponsor clients and their portfolio companies’ management teams. https://lnkd.in/epkCbBhe