The Clingendael Institute

Initiating and accelerating the reconstruction of #Syria becomes more important by the day as an interim government is now in place while the economy remains in dire straits. Initial euphoria about the fall of #Assad is starting to face the harsh realities of destitution without much prospect. Our work with Bourse & Bazaar Foundation suggests that the EU, US and UN permanently lifting existing sectoral economic sanctions is a key ingredient to progress, based on the following logic: (1) Fully and permanently lifting sanctions on Syria looks like taking a risk on the genuineness of #HTS moderation (2) However, not, partially or temporarily lifting sanctions will make a successful political transition in Syria impossible (3) The country is economically so destitute that without reconstruction it remains a humanitarian emergency, a source of flight and becomes a pit for geopolitical knife fights This brief analyzes the current situation and what steps can be taken: https://lnkd.in/eb969uu7 My thanks to all the participants in our 17 March workshop, as well as Mohammad Kanfash

🌍 Check out some of Clingendael Academy's moments of early 2025! ⤵️ Swipe and click through our work with diplomats, humanitarians, and partners around the world. 𝗦𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗗𝘂𝘁𝗰𝗵 𝗥𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗳 𝗔𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗽𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗻𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗘𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗼𝗽𝗶𝗮 𝗝𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗲 ⏩ https://lnkd.in/eeYQd9bN 𝗗𝗲𝗹𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝗰𝗿𝗼𝘀𝘀-𝗰𝘂𝘁𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗺𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗦𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗵 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗱𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗼𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘀 ⏩ https://lnkd.in/eb_Ps7zy 𝗛𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝘆𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗯𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 & 𝗱𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗼𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗽 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗢𝗦𝗖𝗘 𝗺𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿𝘀 ⏩ https://lnkd.in/e-FZeYck 𝗛𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗿𝗱 𝗲𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗳 𝗖𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗗𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗼𝗺𝗮𝗰𝘆 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗰𝗼𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗱𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗼𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘀 ⏩ https://lnkd.in/e6fXtXSx 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗴𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝘆𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝗰𝗮𝗽𝗮𝗰𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗸𝗻𝗼𝘄𝗹𝗲𝗱𝗴𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗔𝗦𝗘𝗔𝗡 𝗱𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗼𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹𝘀 ⏩ https://lnkd.in/eJrafg3e 𝗡𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗴𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗱𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗼𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝘀𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗷𝘂𝗻𝗶𝗼𝗿 𝗱𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗼𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘀 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗔 𝗿𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗼𝗻 ⏩ https://lnkd.in/eu345uFG 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗵𝘂𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗻𝗲𝗴𝗼𝘁𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘀𝗸𝗶𝗹𝗹𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗖𝗮𝗶𝗿𝗼 ⏩ https://lnkd.in/etTRS6kg 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗗𝘂𝘁𝗰𝗵 𝗨𝗡 𝗣𝗲𝗮𝗰𝗲𝗸𝗲𝗲𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗱𝗲𝗽𝗹𝗼𝘆𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 ⏩ https://lnkd.in/eKeW_K3s 𝗧𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗘𝗨 𝗡𝗲𝗴𝗼𝘁𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗰𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗖𝘇𝗲𝗰𝗵 𝗱𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗼𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗣𝗿𝗮𝗴𝘂𝗲 ⏩ https://lnkd.in/ecg8wHk7 𝗪𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗸𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲? 𝗖𝗵𝗲𝗰𝗸 𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝘄𝗲𝗯𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗲: https://lnkd.in/e5cZmwEk

🌊 Water security is a key challenge for the more than 82 million people living in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan ⤵️ Unequal water distribution, infrastructure problems, the legacy of Soviet-era water management systems and other issues have heightened competition over water resources in Central Asia. These challenges are further exacerbated by climate change and population growth, threatening agricultural production and food security, energy generation, and overall socio-economic development across Central Asia. What can Europe and the international community do to address these challenges? You are most welcome to join our online seminar! 🔎 View the programme and speakers and registere here: https://lnkd.in/eYhr_84S Co-organised with the International Tax and Investment Center.

The EU's Global Gateway, an investment strategy to boost sustainable infrastructure and connectivity worldwide, is at a pivotal moment ⤵️ Maaike Okano-Heijmans and Alexandre Ferreira Gomes explore the Global Gateway's Digital pillar and how the Netherlands could contribute. 𝗜𝗻 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁: 🔵 Only 6 of 46 Global Gateway projects for 2025 target the programme's digital pillar, focusing on hard infrastructure and overlooking sector-specific applications 🔵 The Netherlands can bring digital capabilities in EdTech, HealthTech, Semiconductors and Logistics 🔵 Indonesia, South Africa and India show that aligning Member States' sector-specific strengths with local needs would enhance the Digital Global Gateway's profile. See also the figures! ⏩ 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝗳𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗿𝗶𝗲𝗳 𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲: https://lnkd.in/ePTGF-TM This brief is the first of ‘𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗣𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗻𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗽𝘀 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗲𝗿’ series!

🌍 Explore international security with top experts. Go beyond the headlines with our course international security ⤵️ 𝗜𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗲𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁-𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗿𝘀𝗲, 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻 𝘁𝗼 🔵 Spot key international security trends and assess their impact for your organisation 🔵 Sharpen your skills to analyse shifting contexts for strategy and planning 🔵 Improve your knowledge and abilities to analyse conflict and peace 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 📅 12 - 21 November, Clingendael Institute ✒ 𝗥𝗲𝗴𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗰𝗸𝗹𝘆 (this course is popular) https://lnkd.in/emkXJ2Ka

💡Report and Policy Brief! Trump's tariff war, China’s non-market overcapacity, uncertainty in supply chains, and the politicisation of critical technologies, raw materials, and energy - the global political economy is increasingly unstable. As competition and economic coercion intensify, governments worldwide are placing greater emphasis on securing their economic security (ES). 🌍💰 In this context, what can the Dutch government learn from the 11 frontrunner countries leading the way in economic security? In our new report and Policy Brief for The Clingendael Institute, Maaike Okano-Heijmans, Vera Kranenburg, Tobias Koster and I explore how different states are addressing the shifting landscape of economic risks, competitiveness, and critical infrastructure protection. In short: 🔸 Governments are increasingly focusing on economic security in response to rising geopolitical tensions and the use of economic pressure tools. 🔸 Frontrunner countries are designing their ES approaches differently, combining protective, promotional, and cooperative measures. Currently, frontrunners are looking to improve cooperation and knowledge exchange with the private sector. 🔎 The figure shows country comparison of seven economic security areas, according to level of prioritisation/implementation. 🔸An effective ES strategy requires coherent policies, inspired by international best practices. 🔸Key pillars include collaboration between governments, a vigilant and knowledge-driven approach, and alignment with (international) sector partners with shared interests. 🔎 Read the full Dutch version here: https://lnkd.in/eecFDtKv 🔎 Read the short English policy brief here: https://lnkd.in/ewG3b8_E

𝗟𝗲𝘇𝗶𝗻𝗴: 𝗗𝗲 𝗡𝗔𝗩𝗢 𝗶𝗻 𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗼𝗻𝘇𝗲𝗸𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗱   Het NAVO-bondgenootschap heeft gezorgd voor meer dan 75 jaar vrede en veiligheid in Europa. De oorlog in Oekraïne en het presidentschap van Trump hebben Europa en Nederland wakker geschud. Militaire steun van de VS aan Europa lijkt niet meer zeker. De VS eist een aanzienlijk grotere bijdrage van de Europese NAVO-lidstaten. Wat betekent dat voor de toekomst van de NAVO? Hoe belangrijk is en blijft de NAVO voor het beschermen van onze vrijheid? Blijft de VS in de NAVO? Wat kunnen we verwachten van de NAVO-top op 24 en 25 juni 2025 in Den Haag? In zijn lezing zal Dick Zandee ingaan op deze vragen, maar ook op onderwerpen zoals Europese defensie, maatschappelijke weerbaarheid, en defensie-industrieën in Europa. ⏩𝗞𝗼𝗼𝗽 𝗷𝗲 𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗵𝗶𝗲𝗿: https://lnkd.in/e5c5xpw4 AG - Eindhoven (Academisch Genootschap)

Kan de NAVO meer doen op de noordpool en daar een speciaal commando oprichten? ⤵️ Karen van Loon onderzoekt de strijd in het arctisch gebied en beantwoordt deze vraag van onze volger Nino. Het is de eerste video van onze nieuwe serie 'Jouw NAVO-vragen beantwoord'. Op 24 en 25 juni 2025 is er een grote NAVO-top in Den Haag. Daarom vroegen wij onze volgers welke vragen zij hebben over het bondgenootschap en collectieve verdediging.

The Lundin court case about corporate liability for aiding war crimes in South Sudan is progressing. The courts decision may have profound implications for what constitutes responsible business conduct, even if in full compliance with local law. This policy brief delves into some of the potential implications. https://lnkd.in/dz_5yk6T

De AIVD berichtte begin april over toenemende dreiging vanuit online radicalisering. Met name minderjarigen zijn kwetsbaar. De geopolitieke achtergrond hiervan is een onderwerp waar Clingendael-onderzoekers eerder al aandacht voor vroegen in een rapport over voorstelbare toekomsten. Wat als…IS weer voet aan de grond krijgt in een nieuw onlinetijdperk? Swipe voor een 𝗳𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘃𝗲 𝘀𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼𝘀𝗰𝗵𝗲𝘁𝘀. In de Strategische Monitor werkten Clingendael-onderzoekers acht geopolitieke toekomstscenario’s uit waar rekening mee gehouden kan worden tussen 2025 en 2030. Deze toekomstverkenningen zijn nadrukkelijk géén voorspellingen, maar voorstellingen van mogelijke toekomsten. In de verschillende scenario’s staan diverse wereldspelers centraal. In deze monitor stellen de auteurs de vraag hoe deze actoren in de wereld staan, hoe de interactie tussen hen eruit zou kunnen zien en hoe ze – individueel of gezamenlijk – invloed en impact op onze nationale veiligheid kunnen hebben. Er is geen enkelvoudige toekomst. Het is niet zo dat de wereld naar één vaststaande toekomst toe beweegt. Op elk moment zijn er uiteenlopende toekomsten voorstelbaar en mogelijk. Beter inzicht in deze bandbreedte aan mogelijke toekomsten en hun impact is van belang voor een robuust buitenland- en veiligheidsbeleid. In de Strategische Monitor tref je meer over de methodologische verantwoording. Lees de monitor van auteurs Koen Aartsma, Liam Klein en Chiara Schrader hier: https://lnkd.in/edZZtS3b