D'Ornano + Co.

AI Investment Amid Economic Uncertainty: The Productivity Paradox We're witnessing a fascinating economic contradiction: As markets reel from sweeping tariffs and downgraded growth forecasts, AI investment is accelerating at unprecedented rates. OpenAI just raised $40B at a $300B valuation while economists predict slowing growth and rising inflation. What explains this paradox? Companies must reckon with the Discontinuity created by AI. The traditional playbooks – especially those used during recessionary times – are no longer suited to a moment when these companies face tremendous risk to their competitiveness if they don’t invest in AI. Making these investments now is a massive bet on AI's deflationary potential. Investors are wagering that AI-driven productivity gains—particularly through autonomous agents—will offset broader inflationary pressures by transforming the $70 trillion global wage structure. While leaders can't rely on classic playbooks, there are several key concepts that will help them navigate this Discontinuity: 1️⃣ The shift from tools to agents is transformational. Unlike earlier applications requiring human guidance, autonomous agents can execute complex workflows independently across multiple systems. This represents an order-of-magnitude increase in potential labor substitution. 2️⃣ Measurement will separate winners from losers. Companies establishing rigorous frameworks for evaluating AI's impact demonstrate substantially better outcomes. Yet most organizations making bold AI claims lack empirical validation. 3️⃣ Discipline will win in uncertain times. The "unlimited investment" approach to AI will prove unsustainable as growth slows. Companies with disciplined allocation frameworks maintaining high-value AI initiatives while eliminating unproductive experiments will protect profitability. The question isn't whether to invest in AI, but how to identify organizations capable of transforming technological potential into financial performance. The coming economic turbulence will expose which companies have built foundations for genuine productivity transformation and which have merely adopted fashionable technology. #ArtificialIntelligence #Economics #Productivity #AIAgents #Innovation

Shopify CEO Tobias Lütke published this bold memo today: "Using AI effectively is now a fundamental expectation of everyone at Shopify. It's a tool of all trades today, and will only grow in importance. Frankly, I don't think it's feasible to opt out of learning the skill of applying AI in your craft; you are welcome to try, but I want to be honest I cannot see this working out today, and definitely not tomorrow. Stagnation is almost certain, and stagnation is slow-motion failure. If you're not climbing, you're sliding." This is an example of the #Discontinuity being unleashed by AI. When thinking about business strategy and models, the old playbooks are obsolete. Human brains aren't naturally wired to deal with Discontinuity, and so many businesses will struggle to adapt. The moment requires radical shifts in thinking to position companies so they can be ready for possibilities that we can't even imagine today. Read the full memo --> https://lnkd.in/epBnPPvU

Congrats to Raphaelle d'Ornano!

CoreWeave's filing of its S-1 on March 3 triggered significant market interest as one of the first generative AI infrastructure companies to seek an IPO. Initial market reaction focused on the company's growth metrics, with many observers highlighting "sharp growth" and "revenue surges." Early market expectations suggested CoreWeave would seek to raise approximately $4 billion at a valuation of around $35 billion. However, the IPO teardown we published for D'Ornano + Co. Insight clients uncovered potential challenges to this valuation thesis based on several structural considerations. So, how did we spot these weaknesses so quickly? We applied our firm's Durable Growth Moat Framework, an analytical methodology specifically designed to test the resilience of disruptive companies and provide a clear understanding of how Discontinuities like generative AI can reshape growth trajectories. In this case, our methodology assigned CoreWeave a 2.55 out of 5 on our Durable Growth Index, highlighting significant structural challenges: 1️⃣ Alarming customer concentration: 77% of 2024 revenue from just TWO customers, with 62% from a single customer (up from 35% in 2023). 2️⃣ Hardware lifecycle risks: GPUs depreciated over 6 years despite accelerating innovation cycles. 3️⃣ Potential "stranded assets" scenario: If next-gen hardware emerges faster than anticipated. Before the IPO, our framework predicted CoreWeave would face valuation challenges - a forecast validated when they adjusted their offering to $40 per share, below the initial $47-55 target range. Since the IPO, CoreWeave's stock has been volatile (for internal and external reasons). But our firm focuses on longer-term structural factors rather than short-term market dynamics when evaluating AI infrastructure plays. The full report is exclusive to our clients. But you can find a link to an extended explanation of how DGI was applied to CoreWeave in the comments. 👇 We've released a similar teardown for Klarna that also questions that company's AI bonafides. What other companies would you like to see evaluated through our Durable Growth Moat lens? #AIInfrastructure #InvestmentAnalysis #CoreWeave #TechIPO #VentureCapital

D’Ornano + Co. advised Slate Venture Capital as part of the €51.5M funding round raised by Fairmat, a pioneer in carbon composite recycling. ☀️     The context: Founded in 2020, Fairmat is revolutionizing the materials industry through innovative carbon fiber composite recycling. The company has developed a patented "Infinity Recycling" process using cold plasma technology that enables near-infinite recycling of carbon fibers. Its "FairFactories" in France and the US integrate robotics, AI, data analytics, and machine learning to optimize production in real-time, creating ultra-efficient and scalable operations that produce cost-effective composite materials. Fairmat had previously raised a total of €42.6M. It was seeking additional capital to scale production capacity, expand internationally, and develop new applications.    The deal: We provided a comprehensive analysis of the company’s financial and operational data to ensure absence of financial and ESG risks.   The outcome: D'Ornano + Co. worked rapidly to help Slate gain confidence and close the deal. Other investors in the funding round included: Bpifrance, Cape Capital, Pictet Group, Temasek, Singular, and CNP Assurances.   The D’Ornano team on the deal included: Raphaelle d'Ornano, Thibaud Leblanc, Louis-Marie Bordier, David Ramarokoto, Charles Foussard, Sylvain Geissert, Malcolm Sambe-Drouhet, Emma Gellé, and Nicolas Sporrer.     Many thanks to Slate for the trust: Clément Buyse, Chloé Giard, and Sébastien Léger. Congratulations to Fairmat’s team: Ben Saada, Emanuele Farro, and Guillaume Laheurte.

The latest insights from Raphaelle d'Ornano --> When Images Meet Language: The Implications of the Architectural Revolution in Visual AI OpenAI's and Google's recent integration of image generation is not merely another iterative advancement but a structural shift with profound strategic implications. 👇

🚨 CoreWeave is scaling back its IPO, lowering both its target valuation and fundraising goals. Originally aiming for a ~$30B valuation, it now seeks something closer to its previous $23B private valuation, while also halving the amount it plans to raise to $1.5B, according to SEMAFOR reporter Liz Hoffman. (link in the comments) This tracks with the analysis we provided to clients weeks ago in our exclusive IPO teardown. This move signals broader investor caution around AI startups going public. But it also reflects concerns such as CoreWeave’s heavy reliance on Microsoft as its primary customer and a generally tough market for tech stocks, with hedge funds—typical IPO buyers—pulling back amid recent losses. Set to allocate shares Thursday night and start trading Friday, CoreWeave's debut is seen as a critical test for both AI and IPO markets, which have been largely dormant.

Great to see this recognition of Raphaelle d'Ornano!

Raphaelle d'Ornano digs into the #Discontinuity that Manus and AI Agents represent: "We have become so accustomed to the drumbeat of incremental improvements in raw model capabilities that it is easy to tune out yet another announcement. But it would be risky to ignore or downplay the implications of Manus because it has the potential to reshape competitive dynamics across the technology landscape. Manus and the rise of similar AI Agents isn't merely an incremental improvement but a fundamental transformation in how AI creates value."

D’Ornano + Co. is proud to have advised BlackFin Capital Partners on the $7M Series A raised by Wealthcome, a SaaS platform that simplifies wealth management operations for private advisors and family offices.    The context: Wealthcome offers a system designed to optimize data aggregation, compliance management, and client relations for finance professionals and wealth advisors. The wealth management sector is undergoing rapid transformation, driven by the diversification of financial products, stricter regulatory requirements, and the imperative of digitalization. To meet these challenges and seize growth opportunities in both French and European markets, Wealthcome sought additional capital to enhance its offerings and expand its reach. The deal: Our analysis sought to understand the main ARR and ARR growth components, and to identify any potential red flags while also providing critical insights into the company's revenue structure, growth dynamics, and cost efficiencies.    The outcome: We worked closely with Wealthcome’s Management to give BlackFin Capital Partners a clear view of the company’s overall cost structure and operational KPIs to give it the confidence to close the deal quickly.    Kudos to the D’Ornano team Olivier Aubert, Louis-Marie Bordier, Sylvain Geissert, Malcolm Sambe-Drouhet, and Emma Gellé. Many thanks to Blackfin Capital Partners, including Chloé Novène and Julien Creuzé. And congrats to the Wealthcome founder Cyprien Delmeule.  #FDDplus #Discontinuity