Deutsche Bank Research

"Tariffs are worse for the U.S. than they are for Europe," says our Head of European Equity- and Cross Asset Strategy, Maximilian Uleer. "There's no winner in this." Max joined CNBC’s ‘Money Movers’ yesterday to recap his market view and discuss how the newly unveiled tariffs from the Trump administration may impact European markets. Max's key takeaways are: 1️⃣ Don’t underestimate Germany’s capacity to change - the German fiscal plan surpassed even our conservative expectations 2️⃣ Tariffs announcements are higher than expected and could be a bigger problem for the US than for Europe 3️⃣ Earnings growth in Europe is trending up while US is trending down – the earnings growth gap between the S&P and STOXX could narrow from 12% last year to 0% this year 📺 Watch his full interview here: https://lnkd.in/ef9zBddD #dbresearch #UStariffs #Europeanequities

Germany faces two urgent challenges: a subscale defence sector and too many car factories lying idle. It now has a historic opportunity to solve both problems by turning some of its automaking prowess to military production. Germany’s decision to relax the debt brake, effectively permitting open-ended borrowing for defence, may encourage resources to move from auto manufacturing to defence, as car production scales back and defence production increases. Retooling auto factories is easier said than done though. It will take several years, even after orders are received, and faces hurdles including the fact that clusters of factories are in largely different parts of the country. In its latest report, the Deutsche Bank Research Institute (DBRI) offers some ideas that could ease the transition. 📄 Read the full report here: https://lnkd.in/gwdsuxM5 ▶️ And visit the Deutsche Bank Research Institute website to sign up to our mailing list: https://lnkd.in/ePqzgrFF #dbri #dbresearch #debtbrake

💡 Current geopolitical tensions are causing supply constraints on rare earth metals. But why is this so problematic? Marion Laboure, and Camilla Siazon have just published a report on all you need to know about rare earth metals, why competition for them is heating up, and how supply risks are accelerating. Here are some of their top takeaways: 1️⃣ Two countries (China and Brazil) account for over 70% of total rare earth reserves 2️⃣ China dominates the supply chain, processing ~85-90% of all rare earth metals, and 100% of heavy rare earth metals 3️⃣ The US and EU import 70% and 39% (respectively) of their rare earth metals from China 4️⃣ While EV headwinds might drag rare earth demand, the global clean energy transition should sustain rare earths past 2025 5️⃣ Increased export controls on rare earths could be next 📄 Read an overview of the report below. Subscribers to Deutsche Bank Research can read the full piece here: https://lnkd.in/efWc83Cc #dbresearch #rareearthmetals

❓ Do you think the US administration would currently prefer a strong or weak dollar? Our Thematic Research team, headed up by Jim Reid, carries out a quarterly global financial market survey, asking simple questions to tease out investors’ thoughts on market-relevant topics. The March 2025 survey, conducted from March 17-20, received 400 responses worldwide. The survey asked investors what they think about tariffs, whether their views on Germany have changed, whether they preferred US or European equities, and other timely topics. 📊 This week’s chart comes from the survey results and shows responses to the question: Do you think the US administration would currently prefer a strong or weak dollar? A surprisingly large majority (60%) think this US administration actively want a weaker dollar. ▶️ Subscribers to Deutsche Bank Research can read the full report on the survey’s results here: https://lnkd.in/eaQdUY_N #dbresearch #chartoftheweek #globalmarkets

Chinese Consumers Feeling Bullish in Q1 2025! 🚀 Is China’s consumer confidence back? Our latest Deutsche Bank survey suggests it might be! Deutsche Bank's Data Innovation Group (dbDIG) surveyed Chinese consumers in Q1 2025 and found a surge in optimism about income and spending. 📈 The results show that 54% of respondents reported feeling financially better off than a year ago, especially among those aged 35 and above and in Tier 1 cities. Increased confidence translates into a spending spree. Discretionary spending willingness hit a one-year high at 52%. Interestingly, sentiment in the property sector remains cautious despite recent market improvements. 💬 "The government's policy stimulus since September 2024 has visibly improved income expectations among Chinese urban residents," says Yi Xiong, our Chief Economist for China. This uptick in consumer sentiment aligns with the government's efforts to boost consumption. New initiatives, such as childcare subsidies and improved leave policies, aim to encourage spending further. #China #ConsumerConfidence #Economy #dbresearch

🎧 In the latest Podzept episode, US Head of Research Matthew Barnard sat down with research analysts Benjamin Black, CFA, Lee Horowitz, Bryan Kraft, Matt Niknam, and Benjamin Soff, CFA to discuss key takeaways from Deutsche Bank's 33rd annual Media, Internet and Telecommunications conference. Topics of discussion: ▶️ Potential regulatory changes from the new FCC on wireless spectrum and broadcast media ▶️ Early indications of some softening in the ad market ▶️ AI spending trends for data centers and communication equipment ▶️ Increasing wireless promotional activity Listen here: https://lnkd.in/ebHK9HrN #dbresearch #DeutscheBank #podzept

💬 “Trump has promised a clearer regulatory framework should come very soon, which will probably boost the crypto market” “Cryptocurrency mastermind” Marion Laboure, was on CNBC International this morning talking cryptocurrencies. Apart from the announcement of a crypto reserve, Marion sees current changes primarily as “reclassifications” rather than anything new. And there are still many unknowns: “Many cryptocurrencies will crash, some will stay,” she added. 📺 Watch her interview with Karen Tso and Stephen Sedgwick for more: https://lnkd.in/eZqED6xi #dbresearch #cryptocurrencies #Bitcoin Deutsche Bank

📈 📉 Corrections and recessions… There have now been 60 S&P 500 corrections since 1928. Of the past 59 corrections, 12% took place when the US was already in a recession, and 32% were followed by a recession within a year. 56% of corrections weren’t associated with a recession at all. This week’s chart shows the share of corrections by proximity to US recessions and is taken from a recent report written by our Global Head of Macro Research, Jim Reid and thematic research analyst Galina Pozdnyakova. Jim and Galina define the start date of a correction as when prices fall -10% from 52-week high. The correction ends when there are no new -10% declines from 52-week high within next 30 trading days. ▶️ Subscribers to Deutsche Bank Research can read the full report here: https://lnkd.in/eqaP6yrq #dbresearch #chartoftheday #recession #markets

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday. Deutsche Bank's Chief US Economist Matthew Luzzetti breaks down what the Fed's strategy might look like. #DeutscheBank #dbresearch #economy

🗨️ “The exchange of one currency for another appears to be the simplest transaction, yet the FX market has transformed into a highly sophisticated, competitive, and complex ecosystem.” The FX market is evolving at an unprecedented pace – offering benefits like lower costs and improved liquidity, but also challenges such as market fragmentation and potential systemic risks. Understanding this transformation is key to staying ahead. FX research analyst Rohini Grover, Ph.D. and Global Head of FX Research George Saravelos have published a white paper exploring the changing FX landscape, the hurdles ahead, and what the future holds. 💡 For more key insights from our experts, download the report “The brilliant world of FX” here: 👉 https://lnkd.in/epQ9f4dv #FX #Forex #DeutscheBank #MarketInsights #dbresearch