Since 1953, there have been 19 occasions that the S&P 500 has had a drawdown greater than 10%. Nine of those coincided with recessions. Christopher Holdsworth asks the question whether this tariff-induced fall in US equities will lead to a recession – with betting markets pricing in a 64% chance of a US recession and bond markets pricing in a 50% chance.
Investec Wealth & Investment International
Financial Services
Sandton, Gauteng 11,569 followers
Internationally recognised as the best Wealth Manager in South Africa by the Financial Times of London
About us
Investec Wealth & Investment International specialises in partnering with high net worth individuals, their families, charitable trusts, and pension funds. As South Africa's largest manager of private client wealth, we are responsible for managing in excess of $35 billion in client assets across Europe and Asia. Our international presence, with established investment operations in Switzerland, Mauritius and South Africa, ensures a robust understanding of both developed and emerging market dynamics. Your relationship with us is nurtured through a dedicated Wealth Manager/Investment Manager, who provides access to active portfolio management, stockbroking, and a spectrum of unique investment opportunities (spanning a wide range of asset classes, including alternative investments, private equity, and structured products), all underpinned by our rigorous local and global investment processes. We also offer specialist international investment management and distribution capabilities, with a client-centric approach to active asset management. We have a strong commitment to creating and preserving enduring wealth and worth for our clients.
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Updates
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The fall in US equities over the last two months stands in stark contrast to the market performance at the start of President Donald Trump’s first term in office in 2017 and has been the worst total return for the S&P 500 at this point of a presidency since George W Bush’s first term. Christopher Holdsworth looks at how US markets have underperformed against its peers so far this year.
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Against a backdrop of tariff uncertainty ahead of next week’s reciprocal tariffs against a range of nations, the Fed opted to keep rates unchanged. Christopher Holdsworth notes that the Fed has flagged softer growth and higher inflation later this year, but despite this the market is expecting three rate cuts this year. He also looks at the weaker US dollar and the latest monetary policy meetings of the Bank of Japan and the SA Reserve Bank, both of which opted to leave rates unchanged too.
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Our funds have been in the news lately, earning recognition at prestigious industry awards. The Investec BCI Dynamic Equity Fund won a Raging Bull Award in the category best South African equity general performance, risk-adjusted over five years, while the Investec BCI Balanced Fund of Funds received a Morningstar Award for Investing Excellence in the Moderate Allocation category. In addition, the Investec BCI Property Fund was recognised as a runner-up in the recent FundHub awards. These achievements reflect our commitment to excellence and the trust our clients place in us. Barry Shamley Peter Vogel, CFA Riaan Wagner Kyle Lasarow, CFA Marc Fellner
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US economic concerns are on the rise, with the S&P 500 and consumer confidence coming off. Meanwhile, labour market expectations are at their worst since 2008, which will likely to less spending by the US public. Christopher Holdsworth examines the impact of these trends, as well as why Investec’s Global Investment Strategy Group has kept its risk score unchanged.
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Congratulations to our Investment Management team for winning the Morningstar Award for Investing Excellence, in the moderate allocation category, for the Investec BCI Balanced Fund of Funds. Launched in September 2012, the Investec BCI Balanced FoF is a conservatively managed, traditional balanced fund that provides investors with exposure to equities, fixed income, property and absolute return mandates with some of the finest investment managers both locally and globally. The R9.4 billion fund is FSCA approved and Regulation 28 compliant. Kyle Lasarow, CFA Riaan Wagner
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The big story in Europe isn’t a monetary one, but a fiscal one, says Christopher Holdsworth. Germany is signalling increased spending on infrastructure and defence, while China is looking to grow its economy by 5% this year on the back of increased stimulus spending.
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Part of the reason why the earnings outlook has been deteriorating in the US is because of the state of the US economy. Christopher Holdsworth looks at a number of economic indicators, including consumer sentiment and labour market weakness, that are clouding the picture for US growth.
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It’s not uncommon for coalition governments to encounter spending pressures, especially in emerging markets where coalitions often result in higher budget deficits. Christopher Holdsworth discusses the implications of the postponement of the 2025 SA Budget.