The Truth of the Matter

Consumer and Market Insights (CMI) teams build tools to help a broad range of end users make better business decisions. They centralise and streamline market intelligence, providing their organisation with a “single source of truth”. 

If you’re working in CMI, you may be funnelling data into analytical dashboards or leveraging AI to create chatbots. 

Whatever your mode of delivery, the concept of a “single source of truth” is problematic. 

Let’s break it down. 

“Single source” 

Are you aggregating and homogenising disparate sources of data in your quest for better decision-making? If so, you may run into the following issues: 

• Misinterpretation and oversimplification 

Without contextual understanding, artificial intelligence (and human intelligence) may give equal weighting to different inputs. Market dynamics are nuanced. As too are each of your data sources. 

• Skewed insights and recommendations 

By attempting to process data into workable insights at scale and speed, you may unwittingly be amplifying biases present in your source information. 

• Inability to validate 

If you can’t trace the origins of your insights, you’re not going to be able to understand how the source data was built. Without the ability to scrutinise and stress test, how can you be certain your insights are fit for purpose? 

• Spurious correlations 

You may take decisions based on insights that, whilst statistically significant, are not causally related. The answers you get will appear to be logical and airtight but will lack grounding. 

And what about “truth”? 

It depends on who you ask. And therein lies the problem.  

According to philosopher and psychologist William James (1842-1910) “The truth is what works”.  

In market intelligence terms, the truth is whatever insights lead to successful business outcomes.  

But markets are dynamic, and outcomes are hard to control. Data and insights reflect the fickle, ever-evolving nature of supply chains and consumer behaviour. 

So how to ensure insights are reliable? 

Transparency. 

Work with providers who are transparent about their methodologies, definitions and coverage. 

As long as you can trace the origins of a specific datapoint or piece of insight and understand how it was built, you can make business decisions with confidence, knowing you’ve done your best to scrutinise and validate sources. 

Euromonitor, for example 

Take a look at these two sample insights: 

• Successful innovation 

Euromonitor tracked the successful expansion of Grey Goose's 30% Essences vodka from initial release in USA in February 2021 to international launches in Brazil, Australia and UK. The lower-ABV spirit infused with fruit and botanicals is resonating with consumers and is consistently in-stock. 

• E-Commerce opportunities 

Jimmy Dean continues to dominate the Ready Meals category on walmart.com in the US, growing its value share from 39% in Q1-2022 to 47% in Q1-2024, according to Euromonitor estimates. 

Are these insights the absolute truth? No, they’re not meant to be. 

Are they fit for purpose? Absolutely. 

If your goal is to learn and take inspiration from brands that are successfully growing through innovation or winning online, then these kinds of insights are ideal.  

Conversely, we can shine a light on brands that have launched new products and failed, or those brands that are struggling to maintain sales in e-commerce. Equally valuable learnings for what not to do. 

And if you’re struggling to reconcile our data with other sources, or if your sector knowledge tells you our trends are off, then get in touch. 

There’s a lot that goes into building these insights: on-the-ground research, terrabytes of e-commerce data, 200 deep learning models, purchase history for 13 million online shoppers, to name a few. 

Through open dialogue and transparency, you build understanding and confidence.  

We’ve done our due diligence, and we encourage you to do the same. 

Copyright © Mark Omfalos 2024