The Trump Phenomenon: What America Can Learn From Europe's Experience
He promises to stop illegal immigration, to refuse to observe political correctness, to restore his country’s greatness, he uses crude, provocative expressions that make him sound like an ordinary guy and pretend to be the best opponent to “the system” or the “political etablishment”, even though he’s a millionaire. He’s a narcissist who craves media attention.
Who is he ? French former National Front President Jean-Marie Lepen, of course. But the parallels with a certain American politician known as the “The Donald” are obvious.
Donald Trump is in some respects an American version of Le Pen. Like the old French leader, he seeks to fight declinism and return his country's former glory as he promises a restoration of power and prestige.
Trump’s official slogan is “Make America Great Again!” as Le Pen's former one was “France is back”. Trump promised a “crusade” to make America great again, a word Le Pen used many times in the past in order to illustrate his battle against muslim immigration. Their message is as much psychological as political.
Like Le Pen in 2002 when he fought (and lost) against Jacques Chirac in the 2nd leg of the French presidential election, Donald Trump does believe he can win. “Chuck, it'll work out so well” Trump enthused to Todd. “You will be so happy. In four years, you’re going to be interviewing me and you’re going to say, ‘What a great job you’ve done, President Trump.’ You’re going to say, ‘You’ve done one of the great jobs.’ It’s going to happen.”
The appeal of such politicians is partly their brash self-confidence. They don’t explain. They just assert.
Le Pen, like Trump, seems to understand that power and provocation are inseparable, especially for a nation that is traumatized by economic losses and a strong feeling of potential decline. It’s a confidence game.
Trump enjoys when commentators deride him as an uncouth lout and rabble-rouser, underestimating the power of his message, especially among the poorest part of the people. His blunt comments speak to a nation that’s sick of political double-talk.
Trump’s provocative speeches about illegal immigration, his loudest campaign theme, look like what made Le Pen major success in France among people who have suffered the most massive unemployment and who had the feeling they “weren't in France anymore”, bashing African immigrants, especially Arabs.
Americans have had flirtations with demagogues, from Father Charles Coughlin in the 1930s to Sen. Joseph McCarthy in the 1950s. But the bullying authoritarian personality — the Le Pen style — usually doesn’t work in the US. This summer has been an cruel exception. Will it last ? Absolutely !
While people do not feel the effects of the recovery in their daily lives. Trump has the great advantage of being able to embody the violent exasperation of the average American and middle class. His accusations in every direction allow frustrated voters to think or hope that a candidate has finally heard and understood them. He put himself out of the political spectrum, playing the maverick with talent. The attacks coming from the medias as well as his own party has given sustance to his strategy. “If he is under fire from all over the place, what he says must be true”. And he smartly called the shots when he has suggested that he could run as a third-party candidate if he does not win the GOP nomination.
The consequences of Trump's lone wolf strategy have been more than positive for him. More than 30,000 people have signed up to see Trump at his “pep rally” in Alabama two weeks ago, marking the largest crowd yet for a presidential primary campaign this year. He claimed victory after the 1st GOP debate on TV because of the tremendous number of people who watched it. Polls show Trump leading the Republican field nationally as well as in the early presidential nominating states of Iowa and New Hampshire. A CNN/ORC poll released last week showed Trump with an 11-percentage-point lead over Governor Jeb Bush. In New Hampshire, a recent survey showed Trump leading Bush by 5 percentage points.
Also in the CNN poll, Trump trails Hillary Clinton, by 6 points among registered voters in a hypothetical national matchup. Trump showed he is able to take advantage of a number of dynamics in American politics as they exist right now. This is an crucial moment.
Trump's behaviour is the exact copy of what Le Pen has done for years. A hyper-fast media environment means Trump’s candid comments and jaw-dropping insults, such as his jab at US Senator John McCain’s respected military service, permeate Facebook feeds, quickly making him the most-discussed candidate in the field, according to social media analytics.
In addition to demographic changes such as Latino population growth, polling shows an underlying anxiety from a shrinking middle class.
Trump’s comments, like calling some illegal immigrants rapists and murderers, offend many. But when Le Pen called Arabs terrorists, his message was resonating, judging by his position in the polls and the throngs of people who embraced him. When Trump talks about building a secure fence along the Mexican border the crowds cheer him.
When he took to the stage, last week, in New Hampshire in front of a raucous audience of nearly 1,000 people, Trump declared that “the silent majority is back,” borrowing a line from Le Pen’s famous presidential campaign in 2002. Le Pen used that term to describe the majority of French people who do not publicly express their opinions.
Trump is different from past third-party candidates like socialist Eugene V. Debs in 1912, segregationist George Wallace in 1968, Ross Perot in 1992, or Ralph Nader in 2000.
Trump can succeed as a cultural phenomenon. He is no longer the one who use showmanship to appeal to middle America’s anxiety. Like Le Pen in the 2000 in France, Trump seems now to have a purely personal relationship with his listeners. It is not based on factual issues. It based on mutual understanding without using words. But only codes. That's the most serious threat for the American democracy.