Top Things to Watch

The S&P 500 fell 10.5% on Thursday and Friday, marking the fifth largest two-day decline since 1950. Including dividends, it is down 13.4% so far in 2025, the worst start to a year since 2001 and 2020. Last year at this time, the index was up 9.7%.

The $VIX, known as the "fear index," surged by 109%, the third largest weekly spike ever. While significant $VIX spikes have historically led to above-average stock returns, the current market situation panic is different from any other circumstance in the past.

Trump's tariffs could disrupt production and retail, leading to widespread price increases and an economic downturn. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have already revised their forecasts, notably raising their recession risk prediction.

Exporting countries to the U.S. may also suffer, with factories potentially halting production, and risking unemployment.

High volatility can present opportunities for long-term investors BUT you must have sufficient funds to cover up for the losses in the positions you hold.

Many investors are turning to U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven, and Gold has dropped to a three-week low as investors liquidate bullion to cover losses.

Although I consider myself an optimistic person, I’m feeling quite the opposite this time. Last week, I had to fund my account to avoid closing positions with significant losses. Thankfully, I was able to make profits by opening bear positions that kept me afloat. If you are inexperienced and struggle to manage your emotions, it's best to sit on your hands and wait for the situation to improve.

Volatility will continue, but here are the major events you should keep your eyes on:

New Zealand Interest Rate Decision

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on April 9th.

In the monetary policy statement that followed February's rate cut, the RBNZ said inflation remained near the mid-point of its target band of 1%-3%, prompting it to lower rates along 2025 to encourage spending. However, elevated global economic uncertainty will weigh on business investment decisions and consumer inflation is expected to become unstable in the near term, due to a lower exchange rate and higher petrol prices.

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories

Oil prices dropped 7% on Friday, reaching their lowest point in over three years as China increased tariffs on U.S. goods, escalating trade tensions and heightening recession fears.

Additionally, OPEC+ plans to boost output significantly, returning 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) to the market in May, up from a previous plan of 135,000 bpd.

This development is likely to impact U.S. crude oil stocks and push prices even lower in the short term.

U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes

Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated last Friday that he expects President Trump’s tariffs to increase inflation and slow growth. He described the outlook as "highly uncertain" suggesting the Fed will hold off on interest rate changes for now. While he was cautious about the Fed's response, markets are anticipating significant interest rate cuts starting in June, with a possibility of a one percentage point reduction by year-end. The FOMC is will provide more guidance on future moves.

U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY (Mar)

This report is related to March data so it won't show any effect from Trump's Administration tariff policy.

I stronlgy advise you to check the Yale Budget Lab, which states that the announced tariffs can imply a rise in consumer prices of roughly 1.3% in the short-run, assuming no policy reaction from the Fed. This will be equivalent to a loss of purchasing power of $2,100 per household on average.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

This index measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

Last week the Initial Jobless Claims came in less than expected but these numbers are most certainly about to shift.

U.K. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) MoM (Mar)

This week’s data for March doesn’t reflect the effects of the Trump tariffs, but will most likely deliver a negative stance.

The UK now has a 10% tariff on nearly all goods imported to the U.S., but around 75% of the UK economy is based on services not directly affected by tariffs.

Nevertheless, economic growth may decline due to the disruption and uncertainty.

U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) MoM (Mar)

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

The expected March figure is -0.1%, a decline that suggests a moderation in producer price inflation, possibly due to easing costs for raw materials and energy. These slight MoM decrease could also reflect seasonal adjustments, reduced demand, or a temporary slowdown in production activity, leading to marginally lower prices at the wholesale level.