Term Sheet: Real estate’s tariff reality; Ares’ industrial balance; Affinius’ extended streak
PERE Credit
PERE Credit is the source for insight and analysis on alternative real estate credit strategies.
The US commercial real estate debt market is contending with waves of volatility following the implementation then overhaul of broad tariffs by President Donald Trump. In lending news, Ares Management Corporation has refreshed some of its stateside industrial exposure with a $536.9 million CMBS refinancing package; Affinius Capital extends its lending streak with a $215 million construction deal in Manhattan’s Midtown South neighborhood; and more in his week's Term Sheet.
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They said it
“This is not about pricing increased uncertainty anymore, but about pricing greater certainty that bad outcomes will be realized”
Wei Li , global chief investment strategist at BlackRock , earlier this week on the rising likelihood of a stagflation scenario in the US economy
Alternative Lending Barometer 2025
Last train out
This is the final week to participate in PERE Credit’s inaugural Alternative Lending Barometer, a survey through which we will gauge the state of the US commercial real estate finance market.
What’s new
State of play
Commercial real estate markets have been given good reason to retool their debt and equity investment approaches this week as the residual effects of President Donald Trump’s initial tariffs and subsequent 90-day pause and rework come into view. On Wednesday, Trump lowered reciprocal tariffs over the next 90 days to 10 percent with the tax rate on Chinese imports now increased to 125 percent. Continue reading...
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Industrial tune-up
Industrial portfolio refinancing was on the menu this week for Ares Management Corporation . The firm secured a $563.9 million commercial mortgage-backed securities loan to refinance a 37-property, 7.4 million-square-foot industrial portfolio spread across nine states. Morgan Stanley , Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank originated the floating-rate loan with an initial term of two years and three one-year extension options, with the loan accruing interest at SOFR plus an estimated spread of 1.95 percent, a pre-sale report published by New York-based data provider Moody’s noted.
Metropolitan match-up
Lending activity in New York City has held steady through the first quarter of 2025. San Antonio-based manager Affinius Capital extended the streak and its own origination momentum this week with a $215 million construction financing package for the ground-up development of a multifamily and condominium project in Manhattan’s Midtown South neighborhood. Dive in the detail here...
Data snapshot
Construction crawl
Construction pipelines by square footage are falling and may face further headwinds with tariff and material costs refactoring how development financings are underwritten. A report published this week by Cushman & Wakefield shows multifamily and industrial construction pipelines are below their Q1 2020 levels, respectively clocking in 8 percent and 17 percent lower in Q4 2024.
The PERE Podcast
Shopping spree
Last Friday’s episode of The PERE Podcast, hosted by affiliate PERE Americas editor Greg Dool , focused on renewed investing interest in the retail sector.
Loan in focus
Housing seniority
Lenders are finding more opportune avenues in niche residential sectors such as senior housing to stay active in the current market environment. Cleveland-based advisory BWE this week lined up a $308 million refinancing package for a pair of trophy senior living communities on behalf of a joint venture consisting of Seattle-based manager Columbia Pacific Advisors, LLC , Ohio-based Lamb Properties LLC and the South Bay team of Alabama-based manager Harbert Management Corporation .
Get the details of this week's Term Sheet here.