Spain saves its future with immigration

Before her passing at 117 years old, Spain’s Maria Branyas Morera was thought to be the world’s oldest living person. Mrs Morera took the title in January 2023, following the death of a 118-year-old French nun, Sister André. The title then passed to Tomiko Itooka of Japan, who passed away 116, and is now held by Inah Canabarro Lucac in Brazil, also 116 years-old.  

Brazil, Japan, France and Spain have more in common than their longevity. Each country is swiftly running out of young workers. If current projections are accurate, by 2050 Brazil and France will have four million fewer working age people than in 2023. Spain will have eight million fewer workers, and Japan 19 million.  

Without enough people contributing taxes, these governments will struggle to pay generous (and not-so-generous pension) schemes. Aging populations mean governments need to spend more on healthcare for the elderly, and find a way to pay for extra caregivers to look after them. As medical advances keep pensioners in rich countries alive even longer, economies need more young people to keep pension schemes running. 

Spain is one country most at risk of falling off the demographic cliff. The retirement age this year went up to 66, but Spaniards are living much longer than many of their peers in other rich countries. Life expectancy in the US is 77; in Spain it’s 83.

Things aren’t looking so great at the other end of the age spectrum: last year the birth rate hit its lowest level since 1941. At 1.19 live births per woman, the country is well below the European average of 1.53 and far below the replacement level of 2.1. The figures remain stubbornly low despite generous allowances of maternity and paternity leave (16 weeks for each parent) and state-subsidized childcare. Faced with the reality that its citizens will not have enough babies to take care of the quickly aging population and pay their pensions, the Spanish government has realised that immigration is the best way to keep the country running. 

Starting next month, the Spanish government will begin issuing residency and work permits to 900,000 undocumented migrants. Speaking before Parliament last year, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez explained that Spain had a choice “between being an open, prosperous country or being a closed and poor one, it’s as simple as that.”  

The prime minister said the decision wasn’t only about respect for human rights, but also about ‘prosperity’, citing statistics that 250,000 to 300,000 additional taxpayers are needed per year to maintain the welfare state.   

“Almost half of our municipalities are at risk of depopulation,” he said. “We have elderly people who need a caregiver and can’t find one. Companies that are looking for programmers, technicians, bricklayers and cannot find them. Rural schools that need children so that they don’t have to close their doors.” 

The announcement comes at a time of economic prosperity in Spain. Last May the OECD cited Spain as the country with the fastest growing economy in the EU, driven in part by immigration and tourism. Of the almost 500,000 jobs created in 2024, 400,000 were filled by migrants plugging labour gaps in hard-to-fill roles. Not only did immigration help the economy by filling core vacancies, but it also stimulated demand by boosting consumption. According to the Spanish Household Budget Survey, 25% of consumption between 2021 and 2023 was driven by households where the main provider was an immigrant.  Analysis from the Bank of Spain estimated that immigration contributed a fifth of the near 3% GDP growth between 2022 and 2024.    

Increasing immigration levels can come at a political cost. Far right movements across the EU have pushed national leaders to take strong anti-migrant stances, and Spain’s far-right Vox party is now the country’s third largest.  

But so far, Spain is an outlier in pushing ahead with pro-immigration policies.  

Rafaela Dancygier, a political scientist at Princeton University, has found three common denominators in anti-immigrant countries: few babies, few workers, and lots of old people. She cites the example of European small villages and towns where young people have left for the cities, leaving behind aging populations with nobody to care for them.  

“When people talk about the aging of populations in general, they refer to this as a nationwide phenomenon,” Dancygier said in an interview to The New York Times.  

“And that’s of course true. But then there are some areas in countries, often outside of cities, where that’s already just extremely pronounced. Because the young people are leaving, working-age people are leaving.”  

This creates a sort of political doom loop whereby abandoned places become more anti-immigrant and therefore less likely to welcome workers who can help them to prosper, and care for the elderly. 

The Spanish government has recognised that accepting reality is a better long-term strategy than catering to perception.  

While other European leaders pander to anti-migrant extremists, Spain’s immigration policy looks to guarantee a strong economy, and provide services so that everyone lucky enough to reach 117 can live a life of dignity.