Rethinking Africa’s Energy Mix: Prioritizing Fossil Fuel Development or Transition to Renewable Energy Sources.

 Energy access remains one of Africa's most pressing challenges. Over 600 million people live without electricity, limiting opportunities for growth and development. The continent faces a critical choice: prioritize the development of fossil fuels to meet immediate energy demands or transition to renewable sources for long-term sustainability. This decision is not just about energy; it’s about shaping Africa’s development trajectory, economic sovereignty, and global standing.

 This article examines how Africa can tackle its energy crisis through a pragmatic, phased approach. By drawing on historical precedents, economic realities, and innovative frameworks like Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, we uncover a viable path toward an inclusive and sustainable energy future for the continent.

 "Energy is the golden thread that connects economic growth, social equity, and environmental sustainability [UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, 2012]. About 600 million people in Africa lack access to electricity. Household air pollution is one of the greatest health hazards; according to the World Health Organization (WHO), indoor air pollution accounts for about four million premature deaths per year, more than malaria and AIDS combined. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), women and children in Africa account for 60% of early deaths due to smoke inhalation from household air pollution from cooking. As outlined in the African Union's Agenda 2063, access to reliable and affordable energy is the key to the continent's economic transformation.

 According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Africa possesses some of the world's most significant potential for renewable energy sources, including solar power generation capacity estimated at (7,900 GW) gigawatts, far exceeding amounts for most other continents combined, potential for hydropower estimated at (1,753 GW), wind energy potential at about (461 GW), including geothermal and modern bioenergy sources. According to IRENA, investing in Africa's renewable energy transition could create up to three times as many jobs as fossil fuels per millions of dollars spent. According to IEA, the developing world needs about $190 Billion annually between 2026 and 20230 to achieve its energy and climate goals, with about two-thirds devoted to clean and renewable energy sources. Who will finance these heavy capital-intensive investments? The 2015 Annual Climate Finance commitment of $100 billion from the developed countries to help developing countries mitigate climate action has not been met, the $13.5 billion Green Climate Fund support promised to 120 developing countries is yet to be delivered, the $700 Million promised at COP 27 in Egypt, zero dollars has been paid so far.

Historically, most developed countries have enjoyed the benefits of cheap domestic energy and export revenues from coal, oil, and natural gas (fossil fuels). They still use fossil fuels to power their high-energy needs, sustain industrialization and economic growth, and power heavy industries. The United States, for example, gets 81% of its total energy from coal, oil, and natural gas. The US uses fossil fuels to run vehicles, heat homes, power industries, and sustain heavy manufacturing.

 The reliance of developed countries on fossil fuels during their early stages of development underscores the argument that Africa, too, should prioritize its immediate energy needs. Abraham Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs theory, which ranks human needs from the most "basic" to the most “advanced,” provides a framework for understanding why Africa might focus on fossil fuel development before transitioning to more advanced needs, such as alternative energy sources.

  Stage 1: Physiological Needs (Africa must first meet its Basic Energy Needs)

 Africa's most basic energy needs are currently unmet, with over 600 million people lacking access to electricity (IEA, 2020). Fossil fuels are currently the most reliable and affordable energy source for meeting basic needs like lighting, cooking, and heating. Developing Africa's fossil fuel resources can help ensure a stable energy supply for basic needs, reduce energy poverty, and improve overall well-being.

 Stage 2: Safety Needs (Energy Security and Stability)

 As Africa's energy demands grow, ensuring a stable and secure energy supply is crucial for economic development and poverty reduction. Developing Africa's fossil fuel resources can help reduce dependence on imported fuels, improve energy security, and reduce the risks associated with price volatility. A stable energy supply also enables the development of critical infrastructure, such as hospitals, schools, and emergency services, essential for ensuring public safety and security.

 Stage 3: Love and Belonging Needs (Energy Sovereignty Leads to Social Connections)

 Energy access enables social connections, communication, and community development, which are essential for building strong, cohesive societies. Widespread energy access in Africa can foster social growth by allowing the development of community centers, schools, and healthcare facilities. Energy access also enables small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to grow, which is critical for creating jobs and stimulating local economic development.

 Stage 4: Esteem Needs (Energy Sovereignty Leads to Recognition and Respect)

 As Africa develops, it will want to assert its global presence and recognition. Leveraging its fossil fuel resources can help, as developing them can reduce dependence on foreign aid and improve the continent's economic sovereignty. A diversified energy sector can enhance Africa's global reputation as a reliable and competitive economic partner.

 Stage 5: Self-Actualization Needs (Energy sovereignty will provide necessary funding for renewables)

 Once basic needs are met, Africa can focus on Innovation, renewable energy, and sustainable development. Developing Africa's fossil fuel resources can provide the necessary economic foundation for investing in renewable energy technologies and reducing the continent's carbon footprint.

  According to the IEA, If Africa were to fully develop its fossil fuel energy sector, its share of global greenhouse gas emissions would still be relatively small, at 3%, compared to the share of developed countries, which is about 33%. Africa's cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions would account for no more than 4% of global emissions by 2050.  Excluding South Africa, almost one billion people across 48 African countries share nearly the same generation capacity as Germany, with just about 83 million people.

It's worth noting that Africa's per capita emissions are currently very low, and the continent has significant potential for renewable energy development, particularly solar and wind power. The IEA estimates that Africa could become a leading player in the global hydrogen market, producing 5,000 megatons of hydrogen per year at competitive prices. Still, Africa must invest heavily in natural gas, the cleanest form of fossil fuels, to reduce energy poverty. If you produce all of Africa's natural gas, our greenhouse emissions go up by only 6-8%, which is still way below the emissions by developed nations; despite Africa having 17% of the world's population at about 1.4 billion, our green gas emissions are same as that of Spain alone at about 4%. "Renewables will come into our energy systems, but we need to go step by step. We cannot go on the timelines set by wealthy nations that have used fossil fuels to develop their economy and drive human flourishing [N. J Ayuk, LinkedIn, 2024] NJ Ayuk JD, MBA.

 Africa’s energy journey must prioritize its immediate realities, with fossil fuels critical in powering homes and industries and driving economic growth. These resources are essential to lifting millions from energy poverty and laying the groundwork for a self-reliant and prosperous continent. Only once this foundation is firmly established can Africa begin transitioning toward renewables as a long-term goal. By leveraging its vast resources, fostering global partnerships, and coordinating regional efforts, Africa can secure energy access for all and chart a path to sustainable progress, fully aligned with the vision of Agenda 2063.

 @Franco Bonghan is the Executive Director of Bright Light Projects (BLP)

 References:

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 -PwC. Africa Energy Review 2021. 2021.

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 -United Nations. "Secretary-General's Remarks at the Launch of the Sustainable Energy for All Initiative." 2012.

 -Ayuk, N.J. " LinkedIn Post." LinkedIn, 2024.

 -IEA (International Energy Agency). Africa Energy Outlook 2020. International Energy Agency, 2020.

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 -WHO (World Health Organization). "Household Air Pollution." World Health Organization,

 -World Bank. Energy Access in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Overview. World Bank

 -Maslow, Abraham H. "A Theory of Human Motivation." Psychological Review, vol. 50, no. 4, 1943, pp. 370-396.

 -African Union. Agenda 2063.

 -IEA. 2020. Africa Energy Outlook 2020.

 -Scofield, Rupert. "Energy Poverty." FINCA, 2021

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