Predictions

It seems trite to say, but these are trying times. The impact of this virus on the health of our loved ones and ourselves is proving tragic and terrifying. Economic activity worldwide faces immense downward pressure as phrases like “shelter in place” sound less and less strange by the day. Predictions about the future, on the other hand, have increased faster than the $VIX. Running the spectrum from apocalypse to over-reaction, everyone has an opinion (or two, or three, or eight…) about the future. We're all trying to make sense of the uncertainty and volatility.

I’m no different. And I’m proud to say that every one of my predictions since January has been right. At least that’s how I remember it. Unfortunately, I’ve failed to keep a record of my brilliance and my wife’s eye-rolling makes people suspicious of my claims. Fine. Going forward, I’m endeavoring to post my thinking here.

OK, that’s not true; my predictions have been terrible and I expect they’ll continue to be. But I’m inspired by folks like Scott Galloway, who regularly and boldly puts opinions out there. Earlier this year, he wrote…

“...why make predictions? Eisenhower said, ‘Plans are worthless, but planning is indispensable.’ The same is true for predictions — they matter for the strategy and data behind them. Predictions are useless, but scenario planning is invaluable.”

I can't imagine a time that would be more true than right now. I also regularly read Fred Wilson’s daily AVC blog… I admire his discipline.... seriously, every day?... and envy his ability to hop in a time machine and see what was top of mind for him a week, a month, a year, or a decade ago. I should note that Fred, too, posts predictions. In his words,

“I get it wrong more than right, and it is embarrassing to look back and see how off I was. So it is tempting to stop doing it. But I think that would be a mistake. It is useful to me to try and look into the crystal ball and see the future. It pushes me to get out of my comfort zone and imagine new and different things. So I keep doing it, largely for myself, and I publish it to keep me honest.”

Couldn’t have said it better myself… so I'll leave it there.