Navigating the Tech Hype Cycle: A Healthcare Perspective

In today’s fast-paced world, knowing when to embrace new technology can make or break a business, especially in healthcare. With Artificial Intelligence (AI) and other innovations on the rise, understanding where we are in the "AI hype cycle" is crucial for making smart decisions. Let’s explore this concept and its impact on healthcare.

A Story of Almost Success

Imagine this scenario: a company recognizes the potential of telehealth long before it becomes mainstream. But instead of acting boldly, they hold back, worried about risks and short-term profits. When the pandemic hit, they realized they had missed a huge opportunity.

My friend Dayo attended a retreat for his company’s innovation team a few years ago. It was a gathering of clinicians, tech experts, data specialists, and leaders, all there to discuss healthcare trends and explore new ideas. The relaxed atmosphere allowed for honest conversations.

By the end of the first day, the group had identified key trends like data sharing, security, telehealth, and patient engagement. This was late 2020, before telehealth became a buzzword. Dayo’s company had recently bought a telehealth platform, but it wasn’t being used effectively. The question was how to integrate this new tool with their core business, which focused on document management.

Over the next two days, the team developed a platform that improved their telehealth service and included a secure, physical way to carry essential health records—like a health passport. It was a great idea, and the company was ready to move forward.

However, in early 2020, senior management decided telehealth wasn’t profitable enough and shut down the platform. Then, COVID-19 hit. The U.S. declared a national emergency, and telehealth usage skyrocketed. By December, vaccines were approved, and vaccine passports became a reality. Dayo’s company had missed its chance.

Why Do Companies Miss the Boat?

Leadership Matters

The role of leadership is important. Leaders often hesitate to disrupt their steady revenue streams, a challenge the late Clayton Christensen frequently discussed. Another obstacle is knowing where a technology sits on the Hype Cycle.

Understanding the Hype Cycle

Jackie Fenn and Mark Raskino, in their book Mastering the Hype Cycle, compare it to a rollercoaster. New technologies start with an initial spark of excitement (the innovation trigger), followed by a sharp rise in expectations (the peak of inflated expectations). Then comes the reality check (the trough of disillusionment) when things don’t go as planned. Finally, the technology matures and finds its place (the plateau of productivity).

Understanding where technology is on this cycle helps businesses make informed decisions and manage risks wisely.

The Hype Cycle in AI and Healthcare

Right now, AI in healthcare is either at the beginning or nearing the peak of the Hype Cycle. We see investments in AI for data analysis, radiology, clinical trials, and reducing administrative burdens, but the results are mixed. Business leaders need to identify which technologies align best with their core operations.

For instance, consider how generative AI might transform case management and patient care or streamline claims processing. Can AI improve patient feedback systems, like HCAHPS surveys, to enhance outcomes and financial performance?

Lessons from the Past

The journeys of electronic health records (EHRs) and telehealth offer important lessons. Both had bumpy starts but are now indispensable in healthcare. These stories remind us that patience and persistence are key. By understanding the Hype Cycle and aligning technology investments with core business needs, healthcare leaders can avoid common pitfalls and foster real innovation.

Conclusion

Healthcare leaders must balance innovation with strategic foresight in today's ever-changing landscape. Recognizing where technology is on the Hype Cycle and aligning it with business goals is essential for seizing new opportunities and driving sustainable growth.

By navigating the Hype Cycle thoughtfully, healthcare leaders can make decisions that lead to long-term success and innovation.