Moon First, Mars Maybe: How the USA Is Competing For Space Dominance Today

by George Pullen , Chief Space Economist, MilkyWayEconomy

While headlines love to sell the dream of putting boots on Mars, the reality is this: the real competition isn’t red; it’s gray. It’s not decades away. It’s happening now—just a quarter-million miles above your head. Space is the high frontier, and the Moon is the next New Orleans. And Team USA is very much in the game despite the political divide, budgetary fights, and a private sector that sometimes outpaces its own regulators. Not just on the Moon, but across orbital real estate and space stations too. Let’s break it down.

1. Orbital Dominance: Real Estate Isn’t Just Terrestrial

If you want to understand modern power projection, look up. The space around Earth isn’t a void—it’s an increasingly crowded and contested battleground. From Low Earth Orbit (LEO) to Sun-Synchronous Orbit (SSO), the United States is actively positioning itself to control key orbital lanes through both public and private initiatives.

In LEO, SpaceX’s Starlink constellation of 7,000+ satellites leads the global charge, blanketing the Earth at 550km with broadband internet. It’s more than just data. It’s dual-use capability: imagine instant communications in the Indo-Pacific or real-time battlefield awareness over Eastern Europe. Starlink’s satellites make a floating fortress of information superiority. Amazon’s Kuiper project is next in line, quietly ramping up to launch 3,000+ sats of its own, reinforcing USA dominance in civilian and defense-adjacent LEO infrastructure.

MEO (Medium Earth Orbit) is less crowded, but no less important. This is where GPS lives. GPS alone is responsible for $1T in economic activities. The U.S. maintains the Global Positioning System as a national asset, used worldwide. But GPS is more than driving directions. It’s embedded in banking, logistics, precision agriculture, and defense systems. Efforts are underway to modernize GPS III and beyond, with added resistance to jamming and spoofing, especially as allies and adversaries alike advance projects like China with BeiDou and Russia’s GLONASS.

In GEO (Geostationary Orbit), legacy defense and communications infrastructure remains critical. This is where satellites maintain line-of-sight coverage for long-term surveillance, communications, and early-warning systems. U.S. companies like Maxar, Northrop Grumman (NGC), and Lockheed Martin continue to operate platforms here, even as new entrants like Voyager Space propose using GEO platforms for laser communication and cislunar logistics.

The stakes become strategic regarding Polar Orbit (PO) and Sun-Synchronous Orbit (SSO). Polar orbits provide global surveillance for both weather and keep an eye on the opening up of the Arctic to increasing economic activity. SSO, a subset of PO, offers consistent solar exposure for imaging comparison tools, making it ideal for Earth observation and reconnaissance. U.S. agencies like the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) and private players such as Planet Labs group of Dove satellites are deploying fleets capable of providing near real-time imaging across the globe. These aren’t just maps—they’re data streams that power AI-driven intelligence systems.

So yes, America’s orbital dominance is real, dynamic, and increasingly privatized. But don’t confuse privatization with vulnerability. The DoD and NASA are deeply integrated into every significant platform's design, approval, and usage.

2. Space Stations: From Monopoly to a Free Market in Orbit

For decades, the International Space Station (ISS) symbolized orbital cooperation and American-led dominance. But the ISS is aging. By 2030, it’s expected to retire—and the next generation of space stations won’t be born from government alone.

NASA is hedging bets through its Commercial LEO Destinations (CLD) program, investing in private companies to build the next frontier of orbital habitation. Among the 3 leaders in this new real estate boom:

• Axiom Space, which plans to attach modules to the ISS before spinning off into an independent station, is the farthest along and the most likely to be ready in time to transition current ISS civil scientific activities.
• Blue Origin and Sierra Space's Orbital Reef, pitched as a “mixed-use business park” in orbit.
• Voyager Space, NGC, and Airbus—a transatlantic partnership building Starlab, one of the more serious efforts with firm NASA backing and a launch date before 2030.
• Honorable Mention (#4): Not part of the current CLD phase, newcomer Vast is also seeking to build space stations and aims to launch a smaller model next year.

Why does this matter? Because the future of American orbital presence isn’t just satellites assisting your phones or astronauts doing experiments—it’s real estate projects. It's places where new life-saving drugs are manufactured drugs, organs are 3D-printed, the next generation of infrastructure building occurs, microgravity tech is perfected, and space tourists and private space travelers train. It’s commerce!!

But, the ISS is NOT alone. Because meanwhile, China’s Tiangong station is already operational. It’s smaller than the ISS but fully Chinese-owned and independent of Western constraints. That makes U.S. leadership in next-gen space stations not just a matter of pride, but one of access. If we don’t lead the party, we may not get on the guest list. 

Team USA was lucky enough that between the Space Shuttle program ending in 2011 and Crew Dragon in 2020, we could buy rides for astronauts on Russian Soyuz spacecraft to reach the ISS. This cooperation for space stations should NOT be assumed with China. And this is why not just diversity of commercial space stations but also crew options like Boeing's Starliner for transporting are so important. 

3. The Moon: The Prize Before Mars

The Artemis program is the United States Moonshot—but not in the metaphorical JFK sense. This is hardware-on-the-pad, boots-on-the-ground, contracts-awarded Moonshot.

Artemis I proved that the Space Launch System (SLS) and Orion capsule could work. Artemis II, scheduled for 2025, will fly humans around the Moon. And Artemis III will put the first woman and first person of color on the lunar surface. But it’s not about symbolism. It’s about infrastructure.

NASA’s long-term strategy involves establishing a sustainable lunar presence, starting with the Lunar Gateway, a space station in orbit around the Moon that will serve as a logistics hub. Then comes Artemis Base Camp, where astronauts will live, work, and conduct research. Again, this next phase of the high frontier is about real estate development. 

Enter the commercial players: SpaceX is providing the Human Landing System. Astrobotic and Intuitive Machines are delivering cargo and tech demos through the CLPS (Commercial Lunar Payload Services) program. Meanwhile, Firefly delivered the first fully successful commercial Moon landing whilst running all 10 of its NASA payload instruments on its Blue Ghost Mission. These aren’t test flights—they’re the early legs of a Moon-based supply chain.

China and Russia are planning their own International Lunar Research Station at the Moon’s south pole, where frozen water may be mined for life support and fuel. China’s brick-making from regolith is a serious move. However, the U.S. has already mapped the poles in high resolution and is lining up launch windows and landers. Worth noting US allies in Europe, Australia, Japan, and more also have plans for Moon real estate. For example, the Australians are backing the Moon to Mars supply chain initiative in an effort to establish roles for its domestic space industry. 

The real game on the Moon isn’t who touches down first. It’s who stays, who builds, and who governs. America’s approach, through Artemis Accords and its 54 signatory partners, is to establish peaceful norms and property rights—laying the foundation of lunar law. If successful, that will define economic activity on the Moon for generations.

The Bottom Line: Mars Can Wait

The USA isn’t chasing Mars because it understands something critical: you don’t colonize Mars if you can’t hold the Moon. Just like you don't get to the American West without New Orleans and control of the Mississippi Riverway. Every ton of cargo, every robot, every bootprint, and policy position on the Moon lays the groundwork for broader cislunar economic development, advanced biotech research for the next little blue pill, and defense posture.

Dominating Earth’s orbits, replacing the ISS with a constellation of USA-backed space stations, and building permanent logistics, mining, and habitation systems on the Moon isn’t just a flex. It’s the long game. It's the opening of a $4T zone of economic activity in the 2040s that grows to $10T in the 2050s–a new continent's worth of opportunities, and the USA is racing to lead it.

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© George Pullen. For strategic briefings, economic advisement, or collaboration inquiries, contact Official@MilkyWayEconomy.com. This article reflects the author’s personal analysis and does not constitute investment or legal advice.