Misconception 3: Developing the technology was the hard part. Now we “just” need to scale up.

Particularly in the transit sector, successful pilot projects have convinced the public, elected officials, and others that we have workable solutions that simply need to be applied. In truth, the hard part has yet to come for fleet decarbonization. As vehicle manufacturers convert a greater and greater share of their production line to zero-emissions solutions, component suppliers will be pushed to keep up. What happens if they aren’t up to the challenge?

Electric vehicle technology is following a typical product lifecycle. When a new product enters the market at essentially a functioning prototype stage, volumes are low, quality is low, and reliability is low…and costs are high. As the product matures, volume grows somewhat, reliability and quality improve, and prices begin to come down.

Fleet defects and recalls are likely to occur, through no real fault of vehicle builders. In fact, as I sat down to write this piece, I received an email from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) that General Motors is expanding their recall on certain model years of the Chevy Bolt due to the risk of fire. Safety issues must be prioritized and disruptions to operations must be minimized, but they will happen.

The electric vehicle industry is also about to enter a significant growth stage, spurred by changing societal pressures and further accelerated by federal funding incentives. Demand is ramping up, which will drive vehicle manufacturers and charging equipment manufacturers to scale up operations. This may result in production outpacing the ability of supply chains to deliver a reliable quality product.

Let’s get some perspective on the scale of the growth we are talking about. Transit agencies across North America are all under the same pressure to electrify, and the federal government is proposing significant funding. According to the 2019 National Transit Database (the most recent year published), transit fleets nationwide include a total of 567 battery electric and hydrogen power buses. Out of 58,413. That is just shy of 1 percent.

Meanwhile, MTA in New York has announced funding in their 2024 capital plan for the purchase of 500 new battery electric buses. One agency’s procurement plan would result in a near doubling of the total electric bus fleet today. And neither MTA nor the transit sector at large are alone in their push to decarbonize. With school buses, garbage trucks, private fleets, and passenger autos all moving in the same direction, new battery and hydrogen vehicle orders within the next two or three years will eclipse the total number of vehicles ever before delivered.

As the scale of market penetration increases, the risk goes up for everyone. From a vehicle manufacturer standpoint, the risk of suddenly entering large procurement agreements after years of smaller more diffuse orders, will be substantial. The consequences of quality issues and supply chain disruptions become significantly enhanced. For fleet operators, the accelerating transition to new vehicle types means standards for performance must be met. If you have technical issues on your 10-vehicle pilot project, you can probably work around that. If you have issues with 100 vehicles, it’s a different story.

None of this is to say that we are not ready for transportation decarbonization. Quite the opposite. Though there will inevitably be significant technical and supply challenges over the next several years, they will eventually pass as volumes increase and supply chains mature. Patience and vigilance will be key as the industry winds its way through this challenging time. And we should be realistic in our expectations for a rapidly growing industry to hit some “bumps in the road” to a zero-emissions future.