Is Luxury Shapeshifting?

Two notable things happened last week: one was glamorous with a twist, and the other was anything but glamorous but quite possibly anxiety-inducing for luxury brands and consumers (including myself).

The Met Gala was a feast ripe with imagination, a blooming garden affair replete with vision and ingenuity. The "Garden of Time" theme "Sleeping Beauties: Reawakening Fashion" allowed for creative interpretations that blended historical fashion references with a touch of the whimsical and fantastical. Looks ranged from Nicole Kidman, Michelle Yeoh, and Isabelle Huppert in Balenciaga to Zendaya in Galliano.

But this was the real kicker: we witnessed luxury democratized in the appearance of mass market brands - Da'Vine Joy Randolph in a custom-made Gap gown in denim by Zac Posen; several stars, including Awkwafina and Adwoa Aboah wearing custom H&M and K-Pop stars Stray Kids in Tommy Hilfiger. Incidentally or not so incidentally, Tommy Hilfiger received more social media traction than any other brand, including Chanel! In 2025, it is easy to imagine more "mall brands" will attend the Met Gala and similar events like the Academy Awards, elevating their image and desirability.

That same week, we also read news of Matchesfashion's move to offload overstock with Walmart's dedicated luxury website. A quick check on their website revealed that Rolex watches are for sale on its platform and other luxury brands in fashion, watches, jewelry, and beauty. Gasp. Not so long ago, it would have been unimaginable to see Walmart in the same sentence as Rolex, let alone Walmart being a distributor.

Put differently, the glamorous set embraced mall brands, and some luxury brands found themselves suddenly mass-market distributed, something they have been combatting with vigor for decades, and rightfully so. This is the age of strange turns. Expect the unexpected.

Free commerce is everyone's inherent right. Retailers can do as they please, but it is hard to imagine Rolex being thrilled with the prospect of potential, perceived brand dilution, even if temporary.

It seems like the fallout from the fiasco that luxury e-tailers are living through is a boon to price-conscious and deal-minded consumers who are increasingly under duress from persistent inflation rates and a jittery economy, not to mention geopolitical uncertainty. Add to that the sudden buzz and boost some mall brands will experience courtesy of the Met Gala, and here we have a recipe for more blurring of luxury/aspirational lines.

This might be the inflection point where some mainstream brands start to be perceived as having cachet. As consumers pull back across all socio-economic classes, including the wealthy, and most feel the pinch, we face a renewed embrace of mainstream brands. The brands that will enchant consumers in this accessible segment are those with upmarket potential and pizzazz, to name a few: Zara, H&M, Club Monaco, and where is Topshop when you need it?

Case in point: J Crew. In the past, their collections struck me as predictably preppy, with strange fit and sizing and a general lack of originality. But something is changing. I was recently drawn into one of their stores by an exciting window display and, to my great surprise, found an interesting selection of linen suits, jumpsuits, and tops of excellent quality and acceptable prices. Traffic was hopping.

How can luxury brands manage this potential shift successfully?

Prediction number 1:  Collaborations between luxury brands and mainstream brands (something we had grown tired of) will pick up again, but this time, luxury will go further "downstream." Banana Republic, take note.

Prediction number 2: Expect to see more diffusion lines by luxury brands as they try to capture a broader target audience.

Prediction number 3: We will return to "high-low" dressing, combining mainstream accessible pieces with absolute luxury, e.g., in accessories and jewelry. Luxury brands will focus on particular segments over others regarding marketing and innovation investments and retail spending to align with customers' preferences.

Prediction number 4: The luxury industry will, as always, nimbly adapt, pivot, and survive whatever happens. The years of great momentum and growth have given most brands financial staying power and reserves and, thus, the ability to make it through more challenging times. Intelligent investments in AI and data analytics will support all of these efforts. And it will be ready for when the pendulum swings back again.

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