Key Learnings - How to Avoid a Climate Disaster by Bill Gates

Climate issue is a topic that I have always thought I ought to be more educated about. I have tried (perhaps not hard enough) educating myself by doing some research here and there, talking to people who are more informed than me, but I still couldn't wrap my head around the issue. Bill Gates' book provided very good answers to a lot of the questions that I couldn't get good answers for.

The book is worth reading - the best book I have read so far this year. It is very informative, well written, well balanced between being overly technical vs overly simplistic. So, it is highly recommended. To help myself solidify my own learning and to be a more educated climate advocate, I am summarising my top three key learnings here:

1."Green Premium" is the key

Free market economy is a powerful system that ensures resources are allocated optimally to maximise total output, but it can fail when the true cost is not factored into the price. Carbon emission is a cost that is not priced in for human activities today, and therefore humanity collectively has applied half hearted effort in advancing green alternatives. This is why there is often a hefty Green Premium for choosing carbon friendlier options. The Green Premium can so large that only the very rich can afford them - for example if commercial airlines were to fly on biofuel we might have to pay the price of First Class for an Economy Class ticket. While technological innovations and economies of scale can drive down the cost of green options over time, as we've seen in solar, wind and EV technology recently, we should also use tax and subsidy to create economic incentives to accelerate technological and commercial advancements.

2. Don't get distracted by the shiny stuff

We will not get ourselves to zero emission by doubling down on EV, solar or battery technology alone. There are many other things that we have paid too little attention to. For example I did not know that cement and steel contributes to 10% of carbon emission and there are no feasible alternatives to these materials today. There is unfortunately no Elon Musk equivalent for steel and cement today, we are still underinvesting in finding scalable green alternatives for these materials. Another important point I have also learned is that our negative sentiment towards nuclear energy might be misplaced - it is the only true zero emission solution today, and it is also the safest one (measured by death per unit of energy). The stigma around nuclear energy reminds me of the vast attention we pay to an occasional missing plane, while ignoring 3,700 who dies from road accidents everyday. There are many justifiable concerns about nuclear energy, such as disposal of its waste, but if we were to apply political pressure against flying because of the first few accidents, we wouldn't have gotten to where we are today with the aviation technology.

3. Short term gain may lead to long term pain

Doing something that "feels good" can be futile at best, and harming real progress at worst. By setting goals of reducing x% carbon emission by y year, we are setting ourselves for failure for the end goal of zero emission. For example, to reduce carbon emission, the world can simply switch from coal to gas power plant in the next decades. However, these newly built power plants together with the infrastructure will take another few decades to fully depreciate and decommissioned. The vast amount of investments here could have been spent on advancing zero emission alternatives. If we were to have handled COVID with the same mindset, we would have simply scaled up the best available drug that reduces death when the outbreak happened, rather than putting in the hard work to develop new vaccines.

What can we do personally? While doing things, such as using less plastics, driving EVs etc, can make a difference, they will not move the needle. The reduction in carbon emission due to COVID has only been less than 5% at its peak and was short lived. Most of our carbon emissions are systemic. We emit carbon everyday, whether we choose to or not, by simply living in this modern world. We can only really move the needle if we educate ourselves and others with the latest facts and knowledge, and use them to create political pressure for globally coordinated policy changes that aim to drive down Green Premium, increase investments in non-shiny stuff, and to aim for net zero ASAP.