Impact of Shifting Supply Chains on U.S. Retail: Pricing and Assortment Amid Trade Dynamics

Written By: Gargi Sarma

The environment of international trade is changing dramatically. Retailers are being impacted by the emergence of regional wars, changing trade regulations, and leadership changes. Retailers confront new opportunities and problems in price, assortment, and sourcing as the U.S. adopts more localized and diverse supply chains, partly due to political upheavals and disruptions in Asia.

Figure 1: Impact of Shifting Supply Chains on U.S. Retail Pricing and Assortment (Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Retail Federation (NRF) and Deloitte's annual Global Powers of Retailing reports.)

The following data and salient points highlight these dynamics:

Supply Chain Changes:

• Supplier Diversification: To lessen their dependency on China, American retailers are aggressively expanding their supply networks. This covers sourcing from nations such as Mexico, India, and Vietnam.
• Nearshoring: In an effort to cut costs and shipping times, businesses are shifting their manufacturing closer to the United States. 60% of executives are thinking about shifting production out of China, according to a survey.

Impact on Pricing: 

• Increased Costs: A McKinsey analysis found that 53% of businesses expected costs to rise as a result of increased tariffs and sourcing tactics. Higher labor costs are frequently associated with the move from foreign to domestic manufacturing.
• Consumer Prices: Inflation and rising transportation costs have had an impact on the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), with some product categories—such as clothing and electronics—seeing price hikes of 5% to 20% annually.

Product Assortment Changes:

• Product Availability: Due to supply chain limitations, retailers are modifying their assortments. According to a poll, 70% of merchants had to restrict their product lines and deal with stockouts while they rushed to adjust to new suppliers.
• Emphasis on Domestic Brands: Supported by the "Buy American" movement, there is a growing customer preference for products sourced domestically, as seen by an estimated 27% rise in sales for local brands.

Bottlenecks in the Supply Chain

• The Port Congestion & Delays: Despite merchants' efforts to switch suppliers, there are still issues. Delivery timetables were impacted by congestion at the Port of Los Angeles, where container ships were often held up for more than 30 days.
• Prices of Logistics: The logistics index increased dramatically, with freight prices rising by over 30% in 2021 alone. This forced retailers to reconsider their pricing policies and impose consumer surcharges.

Retailers' Strategic from Retailers

• Technology Investments: To improve supply chain visibility and flexibility, many retailers are making technology investments. According to a Deloitte analysis, improved data analytics can cut supply chain interruptions by 30–50%.
• Higher Inventory Levels: Many retailers have raised their inventory levels in an effort to prevent stockouts, which has raised the need for working capital and may have an effect on short-term profitability.

A Changing Global Landscape

There has been a disruption to the previously stable reliance on Chinese manufacturing. Retailers are being forced to reconsider their sourcing methods due to geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and growing salaries in China. To diversify their supply chains and reduce risk, many companies are increasingly looking into alternative manufacturing hubs in nations like Mexico, Vietnam, and India.

Furthermore, there is an increasing trend toward domestic production. Local sourcing is growing in popularity as a result of regulations designed to increase U.S. production, especially in important areas. The long-term advantages of lower transportation costs and supply chain resiliency make "reshoring" an alluring alternative, despite the higher upfront expenses.

Figure 2: Resilient Supply Chain Planning (Source: McKinsey & Company)

How Supply Chain Shifts are Impacting Retail Prices

Changes in the supply chain require merchants to reassess their pricing plans. Here's how:

• Greater Production Costs: Labor costs are typically greater when manufacturing in the United States or neighboring nations. Customers may pay more as a result of this increase, particularly for things that were previously cheap because of cheap labor overseas.
• Decreased Transportation Costs: Although local production may result in higher unit costs, some of these costs may be compensated for by the reductions in tariffs and transportation. This change enables brands to make more competitive price adjustments in particular categories.
• Stabilized Inventory Levels: Reliance on long-distance shipping may cause inventory to be delayed or interrupted, which may lead to price increases or out-of-stock merchandise. Retailers can maintain more stable stock levels and give customers more consistent prices by locating production facilities closer to one another.

Figure 3: Relevance of Different Technologies for the Supply Chain Paradigm Shift (Source: Roland Berger)

Retail Assortments Evolving Due to Supply Chain Diversification

Additionally, retailers are reevaluating their product lines to adapt to evolving production techniques and supply chains:

• Local Product Variations: A lot of stores are experimenting with regionally customized assortments, offering products that represent area preferences and likes. They can better adapt to customer wants and provide products that appeal to particular demographics by sourcing locally.

• Prioritize Quality and Sustainability: Many firms are shifting to quality-over-quantity assortments as a result of closer-to-home manufacturing. Because firms want to adapt to changing customer values while defending the greater cost of local production, consumers are more likely to perceive products that prioritize sustainability and durability.

Political Influence and Trade Policy Shifts

Another important factor in changing the retail scene is political shifts. Tariffs on imported goods and measures that promote domestic manufacture encourage U.S. retailers to rely more on North American suppliers and less on manufacturing abroad.

• Possible Future Tariffs: New trade restrictions or tariffs may be implemented as a result of political changes. Brands may be encouraged to diversify their supply chains by shifting to other areas that provide tariff-free access or depending more on North American suppliers.
• Support for Vital Industries: Governments are spending more money on vital sectors including renewable energy, healthcare, and technology. A new wave of domestically made items may be fueled by retailers who specialize in products from these industries and find new support for local sourcing and manufacture.

The Rise of Tech-Enabled Supply Chain Flexibility

Figure 4: Latest Technologies Impacting Supply Chain Management (Source: Appventurez)

Retailers are increasingly using technology to assist them in efficiently manage these changes as they adjust to an uncertain global economy. Supply chain automation, artificial intelligence, and advanced data analytics are enabling brands to make well-informed decisions instantly.

• Demand and Supply Predictive Analytics: Retailers may reduce stockouts and overstock scenarios by using machine learning and predictive algorithms to better predict changes in demand. This is particularly helpful when using a variety of sources from various geographical locations.

• Agile Pricing Models: Brands can dynamically modify their prices thanks to technologies that track worldwide raw material prices, transportation expenses, and rival prices. For example, a shop can base prices on the most economical source at any given time if they source similar products from both domestic and foreign vendors.

Consumer Impact: Rising Prices and the Push for Transparency

These changes in the supply chain are becoming more apparent to customers at the point of sale. Due to inflation and the possibility of higher retail pricing as a result of increased production costs, consumers are becoming more aware of the origins of items.

As a result, retailers are becoming more open about their sourcing and pricing policies. Brands can attract customers who value ethical buying and defend higher pricing by telling tales of regional craftsmanship, sustainable production, or ethical sourcing.

Looking Forward: The Role of Resilience and Responsiveness

Retailers are working to create robust, adaptable supply chains that can withstand unpredictability as the global trade environment changes. The objective is to stay flexible and competitive in a market that is changing quickly, whether that is achieved by reshoring production, diversifying suppliers, or using data-driven insights for pricing and selection.

Conclusion:

U.S. retail is changing due to technological improvements and shifts in the dynamics of global trade. This is a period of adaptation for retailers, one that calls for a fusion of creative pricing, strategic sourcing, and consumer-focused openness. The new retail period will probably be characterized by closer-to-home production, dynamic pricing, and a dedication to resilience as supply networks change. These strategies are all intended to satisfy the needs of contemporary customers and the difficulties of a turbulent global market.

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