Forecasting State

The Right Forecast does it exist ??

For years that passed and years to come this is a question always raised

We don't have a magic wound to depict each and every detail of what's gonna happen

So what's , how and where to start from Let us take these few logical steps :

1- Know where you are :

Size of your company , Size of your business & Industry

From vision to execution is the road clear to everyone from The executives to the newest member in the team if it is a janitor no matter what his title is everyone has a purpose and the right to know why he works here in the organization.

2- People & Company Structure / Culture :

You dont have to be a multinational if you are a small startup understand that there is

no one size fits all solution build your forecast based on this concept .

3- Portfolio Management & Product Classification :

From Group to Family to sku to material build your forecast

Top-Bottom / Bottom-up or through mid tier ,

based on importance profitability to ensure availability know that this will drive the main Supply Chain & business goal of Supreme Customer Service level & achieving cost efficiencies .

Use ABC 80/20 analysis here to hit the jackpot ! combine it with XYZ analysis which focuses on the trend of each product where X is more stable easier to forecast , Y less stable & Z toughest with alot of high variability

4- Measure & Adjust / Repeat :

Market conditions change / Economies fluctuate we are living in a VUCA world , technology is improving making life easier what we used to get in days we can get in minutes now set the basics build your foundations, measure adjust and repeat the cycle till everyone is familiar with the process and you start to see better results.

5- Invest / Improve :

Now you set the basics tested the process for a year start to think of combining techniques high descriptive analytics , AI and apply step by step to yield faster flow of information

Make sure whatever upgrade you apply is step by step as change management is the toughest thing you can do to an organization the steps must be easy and clear to everyone and doesn't affect there job but improves there outcome .