Dealing With a Rogue Nation: This Is Not Business as Usual

In the emotionally charged aftermath of the Pahalgam terror attack, where civilians and tourists were deliberately targeted by Pakistan-backed proxies, public discourse in India remains alarmingly fragmented. While security forces are on high alert and strategic circles contemplate calibrated responses, large swathes of the public remain disengaged, distracted by cricket tournaments and entertainment. This dissonance must be urgently addressed. For India is not confronting a neighbour in the traditional sense, but a state whose actions increasingly resemble that of a rogue actor.

Understanding the Nature of the Threat

In global diplomatic parlance, a 'rogue state' refers to a government that consistently violates international norms, harbours and supports non-state actors, flouts treaties, and uses asymmetrical warfare as a tool of state policy. Pakistan’s consistent record of hosting terror groups designated by the United Nations, its repeated use of proxies to foment violence in India, and its nuclear brinkmanship increasingly fit that definition.

What differentiates Pakistan from past rogue states like North Korea or Iran is its obsession with parity against India. It does not seek just strategic deterrence, but sustained disruption. It does not aim for negotiation, but for narrative distortion. From 26/11 to Pulwama, and now Pahalgam, it is clear that conventional diplomacy cannot succeed with an actor that systematically violates its commitments.

Misplaced Normalcy: A Dangerous Illusion

In this context, public figures who call for business as usual in Kashmir post the attack must be reminded that this is not peacetime tourism. It is a potential theatre of asymmetric conflict. The call to support the local economy is well-intentioned, but dangerously naive if it overlooks the immediate tactical risks.

Kashmir is not immune from the wider strategic shifts. It borders a state that is potentially preparing its own proxy escalation. Sleeper cells, hybrid militants, and cross-border handlers remain active. The region is not just recovering from an attack; it is bracing for what may follow.

Meanwhile, the Indian hinterland continues in a posture of disconnect. Cities far from the border remain unaware that in a conflict with a rogue actor, no geography is immune. Cyber threats, critical infrastructure sabotage, and disinformation campaigns are not hypotheticals. They are established Pakistani tactics.

What Might Pakistan Do Next?

Unlike conventional states, rogue actors do not always pursue survival above all. A cornered Pakistan may choose escalation over negotiation. The possibilities include:

• Activation of sleeper cells in Indian metros
• Escalation along the LoC or IB through small-unit attacks
• Disinformation warfare targeting communal fault lines
• Cyber operations aimed at financial or transport infrastructure
• Use of proxies to stage attacks and maintain plausible deniability

India must also remain alert to false-flag operations intended to provoke internal discord. The response, therefore, must be multi-dimensional.

India’s Strategic Response: Beyond Military Action

While a kinetic response may be part of the toolkit, India's approach must remain layered and long-term:

• Military readiness along the border and within India's strategic rear must be maintained at high alert.
• Diplomatic offensives should be launched to isolate Pakistan at international forums, exposing the terror infrastructure.
• Financial intelligence coordination with global allies can help freeze assets and restrict funding to extremist groups.
• Cyber defences must be hardened across power grids, telecom, financial institutions, and media platforms.
• Counter-radicalisation efforts must be intensified, particularly in vulnerable regions.

India must also prepare its citizens. This includes public awareness on how to report suspicious activity, understanding basic civil defence protocols, and resisting the influence of hostile propaganda.

Institutional Readiness: Are We Prepared Internally?

Beyond military preparedness, India must assess its own institutional architecture. The National Investigation Agency (NIA), Intelligence Bureau (IB), National Technical Research Organisation (NTRO), and armed police forces must operate in seamless coordination.

Border states require specialised attention, but so too do metro cities. Public transportation, airports, and major infrastructure must have updated threat assessments. Emergency response frameworks must be tested and revised.

The Global Theatre: India’s Diplomatic Position

In this moment, India’s international positioning is critical. Post-Pahalgam, global sympathy exists, but must be converted into strategic alignment. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the United States increasingly see Pakistan as a liability. India must work to ensure that international financial aid to Islamabad is conditioned, and that any external mediation attempts do not reward terror sponsorship.

China remains a complex player, and while unlikely to side with India, may not oppose firm action if regional instability affects CPEC or Xinjiang security. India must also communicate clearly to the UN and FATF that Pakistan’s actions represent a breach not only of bilateral agreements like Simla but of international security norms.

Public Clarity: What Every Indian Must Know

We are not facing an accidental provocation. We are responding to a systematic, state-supported campaign that has persisted for decades. Public complacency is a strategic liability.

Every Indian must understand:

• War is not always announced. Sometimes it seeps in.
• Distance from a border does not equal safety.
• Cyber and financial attacks can paralyse cities.
• Sleeper cells may exist in unsuspecting communities.

The public must be alert, aware, and responsible. Supporting the armed forces is not just waving flags. It is reporting threats, resisting fake news, and recognising that moments of crisis demand collective resolve.

Conclusion: Time for Strategic Sobriety

India cannot afford to respond emotionally. It must respond with clarity, maturity, and conviction. Pakistan is not merely an adversary. It is a declining state with rogue characteristics, dangerous precisely because it has little left to lose.

India’s strategic task is twofold:

• Prevent escalation without rewarding provocation
• Prepare the nation for both external pressure and internal disruption

This is not the time for slogans. It is the time for preparedness.

Our democracy, our unity, and our civil resolve are now part of our national defence. And every Indian, knowingly or not, is now a frontline stakeholder in this struggle.

Let us act like it.