China’s Rare Earth Retaliation: A Wake-Up Call for Tech’s Fragile Supply Chains

🧨 China’s latest retaliation in the trade war — restricting rare earth exports — is more than a geopolitical move. It’s a warning shot for tech’s fragile, linear supply chains and a wake-up call for circularity.

When a single country controls 90% of a material essential to everything from EVs to iPhones, any move they make echoes across the globe.

China’s latest escalation just turned that echo into a shockwave.

On April 4th, 2025, China announced sweeping new restrictions on the export of rare earth elements (REEs) to the West — further destabilising supply chains and threatening global production across tech, defence, and consumer goods.

REEs may only appear in trace amounts, but they’re critical to performance and impossible to replace.

Why does this matter?

Because there are no viable substitutes and while they’re not technically rare, they’re incredibly hard to source at scale.

China doesn’t just dominate production; it controls the supply chains beyond its borders, including Myanmar and Laos.

📌 “The United States has only one rare earths mine, and most of its supply comes from China.” - Reuters

And this isn't just a U.S. issue — the export ban is global.

I explored this further in a recent blog on why the Circular Economy needs a seat at the analyst table — especially when critical materials like rare earths sit at the heart of both economic and geopolitical risk: 👉 Read here

We’ve known for years that tech supply chains are fragile.

Anyone who lived through the 2020–22 semiconductor shortage still remembers the chaos: Predicting demand – Fighting for limited supply – Managing skyrocketing costs – Cleaning up the financial mess from over-ordering...the list goes on.

Now it’s happening again, but this time, on a far bigger scale.

If you’ve followed my blogs, you’ll know I talk a lot about circularity.  In the case of REEs, the focus must be on reuse.

These materials are almost never recovered from used tech. They’re present in tiny amounts. They’re hard to separate. Recycling isn’t viable: less than 1% of REEs are currently recycled.

Right now, we’re mining the Earth for REEs, using them once, and burying them again -sometimes within a year. That’s not a supply chain. That’s a self-inflicted shortage.

So what’s left? Reuse. And it’s not optional anymore.

Right now, vendors are still prioritising linear sales models and by doing so, they’re literally throwing REEs away.

And let’s call it out: that’s greenwashing.

If a vendor doesn’t have a reuse or remanufacturing program in place, they’re discarding critical raw materials. No circular badge can cover that up.

📈 In my SCTE Unplugged interview, I talked about just one of China’s newly restricted REEs: gallium.

In just over a year, its price has risen from $640.80 (Jan 2023) to $959.00 (today). That’s a 49.65% increase — and it’s only the beginning.

As Reuters notes: “China made that list strategically… They picked the things that are crucial for the U.S. economy.”

So what now?

✅ You need a reuse strategy ✅ You need a circularity roadmap ✅ You need to act now

Governments will reserve REEs for defence. Tech must build its own resilience.

The case for circularity has never been stronger — or more urgent.

📣 Final thought:

This isn’t just a trade war headline.

It’s a flashing red light for every tech manufacturer still operating on a linear model.

Greenwashing won’t protect you. Recycling alone won’t recover your risk.

🛠 If you need help building a reuse or remanufacturing program — I’m here. I’ve built them. I’ve scaled them. And I know where to start.

Let’s talk.

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