Beauty in 2023: Fun, Accessible, and Effective Will Win

At the end of each year I like to create a thematic matrix for the upcoming year – what secular shifts am I seeing in consumer behavior, the categories that will be effected by those shifts, and the exciting new brands I think champion those categories. This work helps dictate where I spend my time attention for the year to come – including personal seed investment strategy + my business development approach for Fortress Brand . I did a similar thing for BeautyMatter earlier this year, discussing 2022 trends.

My overall theme for 2023 is that fun, easily accessible (pricepoint and broad distribution) and effective brands will win.

Below are specific brand attributes, categories, and example brands that I'm excited about.

Top 10 Overarching Brand Attributes:

1. Active ingredients / topical therapeutics across hair and skin K18 Hair , Skinfix Inc.
2. To coin a term I'm taking from Bonnie Szucs : "Dopamine beauty" - visually energetic brands allowing creators to promote in a fun way – borrowing the term from Bonnie. INNBEAUTY PROJECT , Youthforia .
3. Broad distribution across prestige and mass/masstige retailers – particularly watching ones who can successfully create depth with a primary partner and demonstrate expansion to others. Rare Beauty , Saie , Bubble *
4. Though, after accepting a glut of new brands in 2022, I’ll also watching how retailers will derisk their positions, while also expecting to field more interest of lovely brands wanting to do Amazon in a thoughtful way.
5. Brands with very tight product assortment of multiple hero SKUs. BeautyStat Cosmetics *
6. Further evolution to change otherwise stigmatized or serve under-represented categories/consumers. maude *, Megababe , Ami Colé .
7. Maybe for first time we have exciting products serving 15-24 ( Bubble *, Topicals ) as well as 45-55yrs of age ( Womaness *, Pause).
8. With a recession looming, there's much to watch: (i) consumers will care less about "signaling" via prestige pricepoints and (ii) will trade down, without sacrificing efficacy (ii) brands that allow consumers to minimalize their routines, resulting in tighter & more thoughtful spending ( NATURIUM *). At the same time, I believe (iv) consumers will not trade down from cult products they "cant live without" Dr. Barbara Sturm , Augustinus Bader .
9. I continue to watch and wait for international markets to further influence consumer behavior. Ayurveda is continuing to rise ( RANAVAT ),
10. Although still nascent, I’m still exciting for what social selling will do for beauty, though I believe the funded-platforms have a ways to go before they are true brand building partners. That said, I do have a growing interest in seeing if there will be a resurgence QVC as a channel of interest for select brands.

Specific categories and sub-categories:

1. Brands who are founded by an actual authority figure in their category - building consumer trust and product efficacy. MAKEUP BY MARIO , Shani Darden , Hair by Sam McKnight
2. The baby & maternity category, as we millennials defer family-planning and as the same demographic cares more about BFY products for their babies (though retail distirbution might Pink Stork
3. Beauty services – exciting new concepts focused. THE WELL , WTHN , and Modern Age – thanks for making me aware of the latter concept Divya Gugnani
4. Maybe for the first time in my career, i have started to look towards brands with pro-channel distribution (as well as DIY brands, skipping the salon) including wigs/weaves, color, and nail Manucurist , Beauty Industry Group
5. Fragrance showed resilience in 2022, while beauty fatigue set in. With a recession upon us, I believe that fragrance will continue with its resilience as a discrete luxury allowing self-expression for consumers. Perfumer H *, 19-69 I NINETEEN SIXTY NINE *, Boy Smells
6. Following the same recession rationale, I believe categories providing anti-anxiety will thrive

Momentum that I believe will slow down:

1. Influencer and celebrity brands.
2. Acne patches (but not broader acne solutions). As Hero Cosmetics and Starface essentially created a new category (at least for us US consumers) and M&A already occuring with Hero and Zitsticka, I think the industry will become more and more ubiquitous
3. Watching the numerous multi-brand platforms rolling up niche brands in various categories – this might not slow down, but i'm going to sit on the sidelines and simply remain curious if the sum of these parts will demonstrate more strength than if winning brands were to stay independent
4. While the SPF category creates a lot of noise with many new brands, I wait for a one to take the lead in a real way. Supergoop! , EltaMD Skin Care , Sun Bum and others have historically owned the category.
5. Trading multiples for venture, growth and buyouts. Thank goodness!

I will also simply continue to closely watch (and admire) specific brand builders/leaders, vendors, and trendsetters like Ben Bennett , Brian Bordainick , Ellen Maguire , School House NYC *, True Beauty Ventures , SPATE , and obviously Fortress Brand *

Let's talk again in a year and see how I did...

*Brands that I have either personally invested and/or is a partner to Fortress Brand. That said, my thesis still holds true.  Christophe M. , Johan Bergelin , Éva Goicochea , Francois Bonin , Shai Eisenman , Ron Robinson , Sally Mueller