2025 Truckload Transportation Industry Forecast: Navigating Uncertainty in a Shifting Market
Anderson Trucking Service
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As we head into 2025 under a new administration in the White House, it’s hard to recall a time of greater uncertainty in the transportation industry.
While political shifts often bring regulatory changes, economic ripples, and new market dynamics — all of which have direct implications for the freight industry — there are many questions still unanswered nearly three months into the year.
With so many variables in flux, making strategic transportation decisions — whether it's planning capacity, budgeting for freight, or securing reliable carrier partnerships — is more challenging than ever.
As chief financial officer of Anderson Trucking Service (ATS) and an industry professional of over 20 years, I’ve seen a lot of different policies and markets influence the state of truckload transportation.
While no one can be 100 percent certain of what 2025 will bring, I’d like to address three key questions to help you understand the governmental, economic, and industry factors that will shape the year ahead:
While there are still many unknowns, my hope is that you’ll come away from this article with greater context for this unique moment in the trucking industry — and perhaps greater comfort in knowing that shippers, carriers, and logistics professionals all across the industry join you in navigating the same complexities, searching for stability in an unpredictable landscape.
Let’s get started.
What Actions Will the Trump Administration Take in 2025?
The number one question I get walking the halls of ATS these days is “What is Trump going to do, and how will it impact our industry?”
The truth is, I don’t know — but if past performance dictates future behavior, we may be able to glean some insights by looking at his actions during his first administration and the early weeks of his second.
As is customary in the first days and weeks of a new presidential administration, President Trump prioritized his biggest campaign trail promises as he returned to the Oval Office. While his previous administration looked to the Legislative Branch to fulfill its early priorities (e.g. the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act), the second Trump administration is taking a different approach.
As of Feb. 20, Trump has signed over 70 executive orders, nearly 40 of which were signed during his first two weeks in office. Many of these orders address Trump’s key campaign trail talking points, including border security, government spending, and economic issues like lowering regulations and enacting tariffs.
Each of these issues has the potential to impact the trucking industry, albeit to varying degrees.
Tariffs and U.S. Borders
In this first quarter (Q1) of 2025, it is still too early to say with any certainty how the issues of border security and tariffs — which for this administration are critically linked — will ultimately be handled in the months ahead.
Tariffs were a tool in the first Trump administration, and they continue to be in his second. While Trump initially announced 25 percent tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, an additional 10 percent tariff on Canadian oil, natural gas, and electricity, he later agreed to a 30-day pause on the order. In early March, they were back on (with some exemptions), then subsequently delayed again until April 2.
Still, the threat of tariffs alone had a ripple effect across the transportation industry, increasing port traffic and raising container rates. ATS has also experienced a significant increase in phone calls from customers hurrying to move freight to the U.S. as quickly as possible, hoping to delay the disruptive effects of potential tariffs on their supply chains.
Whether these tariffs will indeed go into effect in early April remains to be seen, but they are having an impact on the global supply chain regardless.
Government Spending & Regulation
This administration is using the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to reduce or outright eliminate federal agencies, thereby reducing government spending and lowering regulations.
Among the federal agencies affected by DOGE’s workforce cuts is the Department of Transportation (DOT), which contains the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA). The FMCSA is the federal agency responsible for safety regulations in the trucking industry.
The degree to which DOT and the FMCSA have been impacted — and how that impact could affect the transportation industry — is currently unknown.
Lawmakers are asking Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy to clarify details of the Trump administration’s plans for the DOT, including how many DOT employees were offered a buyout and how many have lost their jobs since Jan. 20.
Clarity into the extent of the workforce cuts at these agencies will be the first step toward understanding how the trucking industry may be affected moving forward.
While actions to shrink the federal government are in line with Trump’s campaign promises, they are driving overall uncertainty both politically and economically.
Uncertainty on this scale can lead to supply chain volatility. It can also gum up the works of our economy by slowing spending by consumers and businesses alike, as both are unwilling to make significant investments in uncertain times.
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How Is the U.S. Economy in 2025?
Two-thirds of the U.S. economy is driven by consumer spending, and the other one-third is driven by industrial production and durable goods. In early 2025, overall spending is down in both the consumer and industrial segments.
Consumers continue to prioritize spending on services rather than goods (the likes of which would travel on a truck, vessel, or aircraft), but even that type of spending has slowed. It is likely that consumer spending will slow further as the job market softens.
On the industrial manufacturing and durable goods side, things haven’t gotten much worse since 2024 — but they haven’t improved much, either. The manufacturing industry is only recently emerging from a long period of contraction, and industrial spend is down.
Most economists are forecasting gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2025 in the low two percent range — a rate of growth that doesn’t match up to the level of inflation.
When GDP growth is lower than the level of inflation, it means that the economy is producing goods and services at a slower rate than prices are rising. This represents a decline in the real purchasing power of the population, often leading to a situation where people can get fewer goods (buy less) for their money.
It should be noted that the early GDP growth forecasts for 2025 may be negatively impacted by the threat of tariffs. This could mean that the actual GDP will be higher than the low-to-mid two percent range currently predicted, but only time will tell.
So, what advice would I give to businesses about the state of the U.S. economy this year? Assume we’ll experience the same level of depressed economic demand as we did in 2024.
How Will the Government and Economy Shape the Trucking Industry in 2025?
In mid- to late-2024, supply and demand hit equilibrium in the transportation industry, meaning the freight demand roughly equaled the supply of available trucks in the U.S.
When that happens, spot rates and contract rates both fall to the bottom and are effectively the same. This is where the trucking industry found itself as we entered 2025.
If I were to make one prediction for the coming year, it would be this: Freight rates will rise in 2025.
Balanced supply and demand, even spot and contract rates, and supply chain volatility driven by overall uncertainty will all combine to push rates higher.
It does not take much change in demand to affect freight rates and send them higher.
The unpredictability surrounding tariffs is a great example of this in action: While the situation is still too uncertain to definitively say what will unfold, the tariffs proposed in early 2025 did cause supply chain spikes that pushed rates to a higher spot market for short periods of time.
This could ultimately lead to lower consumer spending and less demand for trucking services, which carriers are likely to react to by raising transportation rates.
I also expect other activities throughout the U.S. in 2025 to contribute to increased rates, including:
Rising rates are good news for drivers, and even shippers may be surprised to see that higher rates can empower better service.
On the whole, expect a 2025 freight market not much different from 2024, with the notable exception of higher rates. Using the 2024 market as your baseline expectation will be the best, safest approach to your transportation planning and budget in 2025.
Preparing for Shipping Success in 2025
As we move further into 2025, uncertainty remains the dominant theme across the transportation industry. The truth is that right now, no one has all the answers, ATS included. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t ways to prepare for the road ahead.
While we can’t predict every twist and turn, there are key takeaways to keep in mind:
For shippers, this means that as truck capacity tightens in certain regions, securing reliable transportation won’t be about finding the lowest rate. Instead, shippers should expect to pay a bit more to ensure consistent service, minimize disruptions, and keep their supply chains running smoothly.
Shipping success in 2025 will require agile planning, strategic carrier relationships, and a proactive approach to risk mitigation. While the market may feel uncertain, the best way to stay ahead is to be prepared.
To help you plan more effectively, we’ve put together the 2025 Freight Shipping Calendar, which outlines which days will be the most (and least) budget-friendly days to ship all year long.
Download your copy for free today and use it as a tool to help you take control of your transportation planning in the weeks and months to come.