10 signs we are being boiled alive...

“The boiling frog is a fable describing a frog being slowly boiled alive. The premise is that if a frog is put suddenly into boiling water, it will jump out, but if the frog is put in tepid water which is then brought to a boil slowly, it will not perceive the danger and will be cooked to death. The story is often used as a metaphor for the inability or unwillingness of people to react to or be aware of sinister threats that arise gradually rather than suddenly. “ – Wikipedia

Lest the same fate overtake me, I decided to take the temperature of the water around me, and am shocked by how hot it has gotten over the last 50 years! I have picked out a few things that are noteworthy, and that you might be even aware of, but it’s the scope and size of the change that may take you by surprise. Without any further ado, here they are :

#1. Digital Globalization.

Globalization as an economic phenomenon has been recognized, studied, talked about, and is hardly an unfamiliar topic. Global trade is a millennia old business, but what is new is the digital inter-connectedness of consumer/citizen, corporation, and nation-state across national boundaries.

These national boundaries will increasingly be seen as cumbersome to the free flow of goods and commerce (and after all, it is the corporations calling the political shots), and become more and more porous over time (Brexit and Ireland is case in point). Short term Protectionism may lead to the formation of free trading zones or partnerships , but over the long term, when a consumer can comparison shop, and buy anything online from any supplier, the costs of goods and services are going to level and bottom out GLOBALLY.

We are already a ONE-WORLD Government. Yes, nations still don’t get along, and we have a variety of countries, governance models, cultures etc… but on the whole, mankind has made tremendous progress towards a one-world governance structure. The water will boil over, when citizens/nations/corporations realize that wars are bad for business (as opposed to the current state, where Defence is the worlds must lucrative industry) – and in one stroke can move billions of dollars in defence spending to infrastructure, education, healthcare and basic necessities. Will it happen? Yes.

#2. David & Goliath on the same playing field.

Alvin Toffler in Future Shock, speculated about the springing up of local communities, self sufficient in their local needs (food, water, shelter, security etc.) trading their surplus in a local & global market. You can no longer tell a large corporations web site from that of a mom-and-pop store (exaggerating but you get the point). Local businesses can be much more reactive and responsive to their constituents than a large business (in general). With the current focus on organic, sustainable, green technologies, and the availability of solar, wind, and hybrid power, more and more communities will be able to be self sufficient for their food and energy requirements, and not be dependent on national infrastructure.

The cracks are becoming visible. Uber has displaced a taxi business, AirBnb a hotel industry. The ability of consumers and groups to directly connect with each other digitally, without requiring a broker, is going to topple many many business models. A great example is what block chain is doing to currency – people can develop their own currencies and trade amongst themselves without requiring all the banking infrastructure and brokerage overheads. Dealing with this paradigm is going to give governments and regulatory agencies nightmares.

#3. Rationalization

We are going to find that a few corporations are going to be the go-to guys for certain set of staples (some would argue that we are already there). Banking – the worlds 10 largest banks, based in only 6 countries, have a combined wealth of $25.1 Trillion dollars. Media is controlled by a few corporations. Retail, Agriculture, Pharma, HealthCare, Insurance… you name it – the marketspace is contracting. I predict further consolidation, limited only by anti-trust/monopolies/restrictive trade practices regulations.

#4. Divestiture.

By the same token, rationalization is also taking place in the xAAS space. AWS/Azure/Google for Cloud, SalesForce/SAP/MS Dynamics, certain BPO vendors for HR/Payroll/Legal/Compliance/Accounting are slowly becoming the go-to’s for a specific space. Corporations will begin to leverage xAAS for products/services not core to their business model more and more, with increasing automation and AI, we will see the human footprint in most corporations start to shrink over the next decade.

Digital Automation, like Manufacturing Automation, will both displace and create jobs.

#5. Right to Information.

Access to the Internet is so critical today, it might be classified as a new fundamental right. When we think of our increasing dependence on data and apps for everything in the new digital age – access to high bandwidth connectivity, and devices will define the haves and have-nots of the next generation.

#6. The Information Age.

We never really entered it. Information Technology was supposed to revolutionize our lives, but we just are beginning to see that happen today. Organizations chewed on, and generated, vast amounts of data, that was processed, stored, retrieved, classified, organized, reported on etc. But the computers were never called upon to look at the data and render an opinion.

That has changed, my how that has changed!

Computers are now beginning to understand meaning, and process knowledge – not just information. The rise of artificial intelligence, robotics, NLP – this is a trend that is going to go exponential, as computers build smarter computers with more advanced algorithms.

The water boils when humans no longer need to tell computers what to do.

#7. Science has had to reinvent itself.

Newtonian physics reigned for over a century, but yielded to relativity, quantum phenomena, and now we are in the post quantum age. Having understood our physical reality to a reasonable level, Science is now grappling with more advanced concepts like consciousness, non-locality, the impact an observer has on an experiment. All we have realized is that we know even less about how the universe operates than when we started 😊.

All is not gloom and doom. Practically, even these abstruse concepts are now being applied in the field of hyper-secure, faster-than-light-communications (Quantum telecommunication). Quantum computing, storage, and AI combined will create faster, more powerful, and more accurate computers than ever before.

The water will boil when physicists and researchers begin to replicate what mystics have known throughout the ages. There is much more to being human than meets the eye!

#8. The Fragmentation of Society.

There are now special interest groups for everything. Your brand of politics, your hobby, your sports teams…. If you don’t like the views of a particular group or society, you can very quickly digitally connect groups that think and feel the same way that you do. There is no longer any incentive to try to persuade another of the error of his/her ways, because (a) they will ignore you (b) if you aren’t the right solution for them, they will find one that is.

The focus of people is also increasingly shifting to (a) themselves [ Selfies/FB/Instagram etc.] and (b) to those in their community/friends/family (c) the larger world. What this leads to, is smaller, physical and digital communities of like interests. Small communities will build digital networks for support, communication, and coordination of activities – be they local events, programs, or community work.

Anonymity facilitates a lack of courtesy in online interactions. We have seen this snowball into flame wars, and ultimately rise to the level where, a lack of appreciation of any common ground one shares with those holding a different opinion, results in the lack of civility we see in public discourse.

#9. The rise and exploitation of the consumer – A market of One.

The Customer is now king. Companies are falling over themselves to deliver compelling experiences that encourage users to not only buy their products and services, but also to engage with them, and nurture the customer relationship over time. Marketing has now become an exercise in mass mind-control, and is being delivered with increasing stridency, and sophistication.

What can the consumer expect? Dwindling choices will be presented as choosing amongst the worlds best, advertisements will increasingly leverage the maximum legally allowable data to target and market to very specific demographics indeed.

The water boils when data sharing amongst corporate entities is facilitated to the extent that offers are targeted SPECIFICALLY and UNIQUELY to you.

#10. The distillation of humanity.

In spite of all the digital-ness, there will always be what makes us human. It may be a recipe for pasta that only the chef at your neighborhood Italian restaurant knows. It may be an artist in your community whose work sells all over the world. It may be a singer/songwriter who is able to tour, write and record songs, and have a dedicated following, all managed and run from his laptop. It may be an entrepreneur that pulls together 4 different capabilities on the Internet into a new value proposition.

We are also seeing a new generation that is very concerned about our planet, and our shared resources. Organizations are coming together to fight pollution, corruption, poaching, disease, hunger. Technology is making this all happen much better and faster than before.

Technology enables the best and worst of mankind, and the speed at which changes are now occurring dwarf even Moore’s Law. Will it take a computer mastermind to kindly lead humanity down a gentler, kinder path to world peace? Will we master our inner psyche, and our latent “para-normal” abilities? I don’t know… I hope we do… I am just excited to live in these times!!!!!