RPAC, LLC’s Post

Transcript

Everyone at the Almond Board just released the March shipment numbers and there is a lot to unpack. Let's get into what's moving, what's slowing down, and what all this means for the market. Marsh Allman shipments totaled 221, 000,000 lbs, down 7% compared to last March, but right in line with industry expectations. Year today, shipments are down just 1.6%. Taking a look at I1 of the more active regions this past month, shipments to India were up 68% for March as buyers look to refill the pipeline. That said, year to date numbers are still down 9%. With inventories now replenished, we may see the install market stay quieter until crop estimates or other factors bring buyers back to the table. Shifting over to new sales activity, March brought in ��218,000,000 and new commitments, a 20% increase over last March and nearly a record for the month. Looking ahead, 2025 crop outlook is becoming a bigger conversation. The strongest varieties so far appear to be independent. View Padre and Aldridge. On the other hand, non parel, Shasta, Carmel and several other pollinators are showing major inconsistencies. It's clear that reduced input and lack of care in many orchards are beginning to take a toll. On the global trade front, tariffs continue to be a major point of focus. China has announced retaliatory duties of an additional 10 to 15% on California almonds. Last season, shipments to China made-up less than 6% of total California almond exports. As much of the. And had already shifted to Australia in recent years due to earlier tariff increases. The European Union has also announced a 25% duty on California almonds, though there is hope an agreement can be reached before the December 1st implementation date. So what does all of this mean for buyers heading into the next few months? Overall, the market has remained firm, supported by ongoing crop concerns and expectations for another tight carryout, likely in the range of ��500 million. The industry is already filling the squeeze on certain varieties and sizes, so buyers needing specific items should be cautious and make sure they have enough coverage to get through to new crop. That's all for this month. Stay tuned for upcoming acreage reports, crop estimates and more.