RealPage, Inc.’s Post

Transcript

Welcome back to RealPage Economy Express. It's been a busy run of headlines. Housing is starting to move. Employment is recovering, and inflation is creeping back into the mix. And then there's the elephant in the room: tariffs. So let's get into what's happening. Starting with housing, pending home sales rose 2% in February. The South and Midwest saw the biggest gains, where the Northeast and West slipped a bit. But compared to last year, signings are still down 3.6%, which tells us demand is still soft overall. Meanwhile, home prices kept climbing. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index showed a 4.1% annual increase in January. New York led the way with a 7.7% gain, followed by Chicago and Boston. Tampa was the only major metro to post a decline. On the construction front, total spending in February was up 0.7% from January and nearly 3% higher than a year ago. Residential construction rose 1.3% month over month, hitting an annual rate close to $930 billion. Now, nonresidential and public projects like highways also saw small bumps, so momentum is still there. And zooming out to jobs, openings held steady at 7.6 million in February. That's still a solid number, but is down nearly 900,000 from this time last year. Hires and quits didn't move much, but we did see a slight uptick in layoffs, especially in retail and real estate. That said, the March jobs report came in stronger than expected, with a US economy adding 228,000 jobs; well above forecasts, and nearly double February's revised total of 117,000. The unemployment rate did tick up slightly to 4.2%. We are also seeing more people working part time for economic reasons, and about 5.9 million folks say they want a job but aren't actively looking, so that's something to keep an eye on. Now, on the spending side, personal income rose 0.8% back in February and consumption was up 0.4%. Inflation, measured by the PCE Price Index increased 30 basis points month over month and 2.5% over the year, or 2.8%, If we take out food and energy. So inflation isn't spiking, but is definitely still hanging around. Consumer confidence, though, took a hit. The index dropped to 92.9 in March, and the Expectations Index hit a 12 year low, showing growing concern about jobs, income and the economy overall. And then there's tariffs. President Trump announced broad new import taxes. And that's likely to push up costs on a lot of materials and goods our industry relies on, from construction inputs to furnishings. So what's the big picture? Well, things are getting complicated. Housing is inching forward. Construction is active and employment is on the rise for now. But there are cracks showing confidence is fading, inflation is still in play and tariffs are stirring up new uncertainty. That's it for now. Thanks for tuning in and we'll see you next time on RealPage Economy Express.