Eric Sayer’s Post

Interestingly in this month's august bond results shows that the total bond auction was over-subscribed by 9.1x or 9.1%. Important things we have noted are: 2year note was under-subscribed by 0.5%, with it's yield rate remaining the same at 19% compared to last month, 3year note was under-subscribed by 2.3%,but it's yield rate rising by 0.5% compared to last month, 5year note was over-subscribed by 1.2% with a rise in yield rate by 1%, 7year note was over-subscribed by 2.19% with a rise in yield rate by 1%, 10year note was over-subscribed by 4.7% with a rise in yield rate by 0.3% now at 26% compared to last month, 15year bond was over-subscribed by 3.8% with a rise in yield rate by 1% now at 28.25% compared to last month.

𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐁𝐚𝐧𝐜 𝐃𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐲 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐑𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐮𝐩, 𝟐𝟒𝐭𝐡 𝐉𝐮𝐥𝐲 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟒. 𝐅𝐢𝐱𝐞𝐝 𝐈𝐧𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭: 𝐓𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐲 𝐁𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐬: The secondary market traded on a quiet note today as market players directed their attention to the auction. At the auction, the DMO offered ₦277.96bn, and received a total subscription of ₦373.95bn , across the 91-, 182-, and 364-day papers on offer; 95% of the subscription was for the 364-day paper while general bid-to-cover came in at 1.35x, lower than 1.86x recorded at the last auction. The DMO allotted exactly what it came to raise from the market, with the 364-day receiving 93% of the total allotment. Stop rates printed higher by 220bps, 206bps, and 86bps for the 91, 182, and 364-day papers, respectively. Overall, the average benchmark yield in the secondary market inched lower by a basis point to close at 24.67%. The rest of the week will be shaped by the demands of market players who lost out at the auction. 𝐅𝐆𝐍 𝐁𝐨𝐧𝐝: The FGN bond segment was relatively quiet as market players focused on the NTB auction. Most trades were dominated by sellers positioning themselves for the NTB auction in anticipation of higher rates, especially for 2026 paper. However, very few trades were consummated as bid-offer spreads were mostly wide. Consequently, the average benchmark yield advanced by 2bps to close at 19.14%. 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐨𝐧𝐝: The average benchmark yield increased by 7bps to close at 9.81%, as uncertainty creeps back into the Nigerian Eurobond market. Today’s bearish close was driven by the activities of profit-takers, as participants offloaded in sizeable volumes across the curve, particularly at the mid to far ends of the curve. We expect this bearish wave to persist in the coming session. 𝐅𝐨𝐫 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬, 𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧𝐥𝐨𝐚𝐝 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐨𝐰. #banking / #investment / #brokerage / #wealthmanagement

Kicking off this week's series of announcements of the results of its long-term securities auctions on Tuesday, the Treasury Department revealed this month's auction of $58 billion worth of three-year notes attracted above average demand. The three-year note auction drew a high yield of 3.440 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.66. Last month, the Treasury also sold $58 billion worth of three-year notes, drawing a high yield of 3.810 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.55. #Treasuries #3yearnotes #yield #bidtocover

3bps Tail in the 10-year auction... AFTER 10s had already sold off 16bps on the day. 10-Year auction was incredibility poor no matter how you look at it. The market in general has not been overly concerned with Treasury Issuance since last fall. An auction like this may bring issuance back into focus. Relying upon fixed income correlations in portfolio construction was a problem in 2022. No reason to fall into the same trap in 2024. Negatively correlated strategies can help build a more robust portfolio construction framework. #portfolioconstruction #rates #volatility

According to Auction.com’s Seller Insights Report, most default servicing leaders surveyed recently at the eighth annual Auction.com Disposition Summit expect a soft landing in the economy and home prices to rise through the end of 2024. But they also ranked the potential risks to that soft landing scenario. Learn more and prepare for the rest of 2024. Clink link in comments to read now.    #AuctionDotCom #BeyondTheBid #SellerInsightsReport #DistressedProperties 

After reporting above average demand for this month's three-year and ten-year notes auctions, the Treasury Department on Thursday revealed this month's auction of $22 billion worth of thirty-year bonds attracted average demand. The thirty-year bond auction drew a high yield of 4.015 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.38. The Treasury sold $25 billion worth of thirty-year bonds last month, drawing a high yield of 4.314 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.31. #Bonds #30yearbonds #yield #Debt #DebtMarket

Following the disrupted month of April which encompassed a number of holidays, it was expected that normal transmission would resume in May and the market would improve as a result. What we did see unfold was a nervy RBA board meeting in which they came close to lifting the cash rate. This decision has spooked a segment of the buyer pool which was starting to build confidence that rates would be cut as early as August. However, it appears that the rug has been pulled and it’s now looking increasingly likely that there will be no cut to the cash rate in 2024.

Fancy a market update now we’re approaching Q4? Of course you do! If you’re selling in the current market, our number one piece of advice is to be realistic. Be realistic about the price you’re likely to get for your property and the timeframe for the process to take place. And remember, it’s all relative! If you sell for slightly less than you’d hoped for because of market prices…chances are you’ll likely have got a great deal on your onward purchase too! #MarketTrends #EstateAgentsUK

Over the past few months, there have been ongoing discussions about the intraday auctions starting on Thursday. So far, most people are taking a wait-and-see approach.   I would like to share my thoughts and expectations on this matter and later check if they were accurate.   1) Impact on Continuous Market: IDAs will significantly impact the continuous intraday market since cross-border capacity will be frozen for 40 minutes (20 minutes before and after each auction). This creates both risks and opportunities, especially during IDA2 and IDA3. Price spreads might widen, and automated systems could close positions at worse prices, possibly causing some participants to avoid trading during these periods, further reducing liquidity. However, some participants will continue trading without special measures, allowing prepared players to profit from their trading behavior.   2) Strategy Shifts: I expect some participants to switch from using intraday auction vs. intraday continuous strategies to IDA1 vs. IDA2. Opening positions at 15:00 and closing them at 22:00 has certain advantages compared to closing positions an hour before delivery. This minimizes exposure to intraday continuous market volatility. Additionally, some players might take positions in IDA3 and close them in the continuous market. The latest intraday continuous market conditions might not be fully reflected in IDA3 bids because:   a) Some auction participants will not monitor the intraday continuous market and might be unaware of the latest conditions, or b) Some intraday continuous players might not be aware of the IDA auctions or might be too complacent to participate, or c) Some auction participants will place their bids at least 20-30 minutes before gate closure to avoid technical issues.   These factors create opportunities for players who are active and flexible in all markets.   3) Prices: IDA1 will replace the local quarter-hourly auction by EPEX SPOT, adding cross-border capacities. Typically, TSOs use IDA1 to adjust solar ramps, while a few participants balance their portfolios or adjust their schedules. Currently, forecast/schedule deviations seem overpriced in this auction due to low liquidity and a limited number of participants. I expect this issue to improve with the integration of cross-border capacity, reducing overpricing. However, if traditional participants split their intraday auction volumes between IDA1, IDA2, and IDA3, the liquidity may drop, countering the expected improvement.   In the first weeks and months, we might see some outlier prices in all auctions. It is definitely worth trying to capitalize on these opportunities.

Real Estate Market Wrap 🗞️│ First Auction Saturday of Spring 2024 Gear up for the influx of stock, it's crucial to recognize the overarching market dynamics and understand how to maneuver through the intricacies of buyer behavior and economic policies. The spring tide is in, and those who aren't prepared will find themselves adrift. My Clearance Rate: 7/9 SOLD What was it like in your market? Comment below 👇 #realestatemarket #propertymarket