Marek Chrapa’s Post

As noted by my teammate Tim Hart (who put it much more kindly), Japanese officials provided a master class this week in how *not* to communicate risks clearly and effectively.  Following an undersea earthquake on August 8, scientists expressed concern that the August 8 quake could trigger much more severe seismic activity in the Nankai Trough faultline, prompting the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) to release this gem of an advisory: "The likelihood of a new major earthquake is higher than normal, but this is not an indication that a major earthquake will definitely occur during a specific period of time." In response, Prime Minister Kishida cancelled a planned overseas trip (https://lnkd.in/gqqzyNqH), online commentators worried about prospects for hoarding, and international news headlines immediately began to warn about a megaquake which could kill hundreds of thousands (https://lnkd.in/giWuH3hp) So what went wrong here?  The Japanese government was trying to communicate the following: 1.) The Nankai Trough tends to generate a major earthquake every 100-150 years. 2.) Japanese authorities have assessed a 70-80% chance that a magnitude 8-9 quake will occur along the trough in the next 30 years. 3.) The August 8 quake raised the likelihood of a near-term major quake originating from the trough, but the likelihood remains "one in multiple hundred times" (https://lnkd.in/gSTf8aZX ) If you're communicating risk, it's important to differentiate between the near and long term (and define what you mean by both), and clarify both the baseline risk level and what it has risen to.  You also need to communicate the accuracy of the data/models you're working with, and what key assumptions they rely on - something that's not received significant attention in the Nankai Trough discussion.  Failing to do so can spark unnecessary panic (in the best case scenario) or conversely cause customers to be overly sanguine and fail to implement proper mitigation and response strategies.  Words matter.

Earthquake nr 23 prediction confirmation reporting: Colombia 4.4 (5h19 min in advance) Here is a summary video: https://lnkd.in/gpkb-GzE In the video there is also information about predicted severe weather in China (almost yearly rainfall in 24H) - my prediction video of severe weather possible in China was 9h before the first reporting video on YouTube appeared - which I found so far. The holographic climate model developed by me proves that not only earthquake predictions are possible but also severe extreme weather events. The mechanism inducing severe weather and earthquakes seems to be the same (or very similar) but it depends on correlation to the local terrain fractal formations and distance from the tectonic plate border. The model I developed seems to be OK so far in predictions. ************************** New climate model fractal waves holography based as an extension value to the existing models. Already 23 earthquakes have been predicted and documented. Severe weather prediction is also possible!  Self-re-organizing fractal diffusive natural neural network patterns technology based on holographic and cymatic projection principles. Securing Invention: IP, Technology, methodology  All rights reserved © Marek Chrapa **************************************************** SAFETY NOTICE: I would like to validate my model! However, disclosing and publishing all details publicly – will give a possibility for climate terrorists' potential weather weapon guidelines – this should not happen! Please inform responsible people, scientists, institutions, and international organizations. I already did. I have no response so far.  It's my public call for collaboration. A trustful group of scientists and specialists under NDA disclosure is needed. ****************************************************** Full list of earthquake predictions: https://lnkd.in/dGx_49wn

Earthquake nr 67 Prediction confirmation- M4.7 Russia (Above N Korea) (2 days in advance): M 4.6 - 22 km E of Severomuysk, Russia Time: 2024-08-19 19:19:22 (UTC+02:00) Location: 56.114°N 113.791°E Depth: 10km https://lnkd.in/dD-7D_6h https://lnkd.in/dVnQCdA2 My Holographic cymatic climate model prediction video from 17.08.2024 at 12:24 [UTC +2h]: https://lnkd.in/dSffdt3E My predictions are very rough since I'm trying to catch also other earthquake systems - and this is a lot of work for one person with no support which I'm continuously asking for. Convincing WMO UNO seismologists scientist is not easy - I'm using holography, cymatics, prime numbers, and Fractals- in science - this is not an easy task. Almost no calculations. Many people will not understand this language and might be afraid/reluctant to learn new /old things (until enough prediction and confirmation data is generated). Therefore Exotic places earthquake predictions confirmations are "double value". ***** Link to confirmed 60 + earthquake predictions ( just in the first 1.5 month of rough testing and predictions operation ): https://lnkd.in/dGx_49wn Link to confirmed predictions of flash floods and extreme weather risk events: https://lnkd.in/d-yR-dmV ****** Securing invention Holographic cymatic climate model Neural network's self-organization fractal diffusive patterns = life! IP, Technology. methodology All rights reserved © Marek Chrapa ************ Self-re-organizing fractal diffusive natural neural network patterns technology based on holographic and cymatic projection principles. *********** It would be nice to have a project on the calibration of my optical models with thermodynamic data from classical meteorology. This model acts very fast with holography speed. I would like to improve the model and work with scientists to compare it with their thermodynamic and standard models. UNO, WMO, UNDRR, insurance companies, Red Cross, rescue, seismic centers, and climate disaster rescue and prevention services would be potential clients, benefit takers, or project partners. I'm looking for contacts to further develop this innovative technology. Basically, programming of climate can be possible (but not everyone should know how to do it - because we might get climate terrorists). We can most probably also monitor every single industry unit's influence on climate in live view. Earthquake probability and extreme weather prediction live monitoring is already possible. A careful validation with meteorologists under NDA agreement is highly desired. I'm asking for understanding and further development of collaboration possibilities and validation protocols and projects for my methods. The source codes of climate and nature mechanisms have been found.

Earthquake was happened last night around Awash,Ethiopia with a magnitude of 4.9. It propagates through different rock formation for more than 100km distance and felt on some part of Addis. The point that I want to make here is why it has a different degree of shaking within the city. Some parts of Addis like Ayat, Koyefech, Jemo and Asko have sensed and even it was a threat while bethel where I live couldn’t sense it. So, there are factors that could magnify or attenuate the earthquake magnitude and its damage too, these are; Formation types: thick loose formation like clay, sand and shale can magnify the amplitude of the earthquake wave hence, produce high ground shaking while intact rocks can transmit the wave fast with low wave amplitude and less ground shaking. Topography: Valleys intensify the earthquake while hills and mountains scatter the wave and serve as an obstruction. Proximity to the source: the closest to the EQ source the more damage it caused and vice versa. Infrastructures: infrastructures specially Buildings, Dams and Bridges constructed with appropriate seismic design can minimize the damage. High rise building is susceptible for earthquake damage than houses and few story buildings. Betselot Y.

Earthquake nr 154 prediction confirmation Indian Ocean 9h in advance [ Comment - It was predicted but not found on USGS https://lnkd.in/d-TGA7n3 results monitoring website - later I found it reported in emsc-csem.org website) ] The verification of my predictions is sometimes not easy and takes time to search. The global consolidated and easy-to-search earthquake databases register would be nice to have - some results are in one portal and others are not there. Building climate models and verification of data and predictions is not an easy task.

Earthquake Parameters Magnitude: 4.5 Date: 26/06/2024 Time: 19:09:32 IST Latitude: 24.49 N Longitude: 93.81 E Depth: 25 Km Region: Bishnupur, Manipur

Earthquake Parameters Magnitude: 3.3 Date: 19/07/2024 Time: 09:28:52 IST Latitude: 25.19 N Longitude: 94.31 E Depth: 30 Km Region: Ukhrul, Manipur

Relation between building length and earthquake strength.. Every building has a natural frequency and every earthquake has a frequency The closer the earthquake frequency is to the building frequency, the more damage it causes Usually, tall buildings reach resonance when the ground vibrations are low (slow), while short buildings reach resonance when the vibrations are high (very fast). Usually, earthquakes have a slow vibration frequency, so short buildings do not reach a state of resonance (they do not vibrate with the same frequency as the ground’s vibration) and do not vibrate, or vibrate slightly. Short buildings have a high resonance frequency, and this frequency usually does not occur in earthquakes. While tall buildings that reach a state of resonance at low vibrations vibrate violently because most earthquakes have a low frequency and it is easy for them to reach a state of resonance.

Earthquake Parameters Magnitude: 4.1 Date: 29/09/2024 Time: 14:09:05 IST Latitude: 10.18 N Longitude: 92.56 E Depth: 10 Km Region: Andaman Sea

Fault geometry may influence earthquake risks: Research has revealed that the geometry of fault lines may play a crucial role in determining whether faults creep or trigger earthquakes. The study found that faults with complex, misaligned structures creep less and have more earthquakes compared to those with parallel strands. https://lnkd.in/dQj27u8m