Karbone

Find the Karbone Research team at Global Power Markets 2025 in Las Vegas to discuss capacity forecasting: The biggest open question in power markets today. Financiers, corporates, and regulators are increasingly looking to traded capacity markets for the price signals needed to drive new development. Yet these stakeholders often operate at cross-purposes, creating friction that hinders the supply growth everyone is counting on. Meet us at GPM to explore strategies for managing these dynamic risks.

Regulatory uncertainty is hitting the Garden State via price controls for the state's long-established RECs market. New Jersey could impose a $360 million-plus annual financial penalty on generators and developers who built solar power in the state that still qualifies for the state's SRECs program. A new bill from a trio of local Dems would cap payments to generators at a fraction of current market levels, reallocating the money saved to regulated utilities as part of efforts to limit overall power price inflation in the PJM-served state. Karbone Research merchant curves for NJ SRECs show a $100-plus gap between current market prices and the proposed revised alternative compliance payment from 2026 through 2033, potentially leaching billions of dollars in forecasted REC revenue from infrastructure developers that have used that policy to underwrite the buildout of solar power in New Jersey. The bill would still need to pass the state legislature and be signed by the state's governor, but the new uncertainty could cast a pall over solar generation investment plans in the state as markets await guidance on the potential new price cap.

At #CERAWeek, the Spotlight session on 'Private Capital’s Expanding Role in the Energy Transition' explored how private investment is shaping the future of energy in the United States and Europe. Panelists from Karbone, Blackstone, Viaro Energy and Lazard examined the growing influence of private capital across all energy segments.

⚡Karbone Research at CERAWeek!⚡ Karbone Research took the stage at CERAWeek last week, where Peter Gardett our Head of Research spoke at the session "Private Capital and the Energy Transition." He shared insights on capacity markets and the outlook for the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) - highlighting how market dynamics and policy shifts are shaping investment opportunities in the energy transition. It was an engaging discussion alongside industry leaders from Blackstone and Lazard. Exciting times ahead for the evolving energy landscape! #CERAWeek #EnergyTransition #CapacityMarkets #Karbone

Karbone is headed to Phoenix for the 2025 Infocast Solar + Wind Finance & Investment Summit! If you're attending, we'd love to connect—reach out to our team to discuss the latest in clean energy finance, and our insights and services in environmental commodities markets. See you there! Michael Stellitano | Colin Evanko

We are thrilled that Karbone has been recognized in the Environmental Market Rankings 2025 by Environmental Finance, earning top positions in seven categories. We extend our heartfelt gratitude to our clients and partners for their continued trust and support, and are excited to keep driving impact in the environmental markets!

We're incredibly excited to be part of CERAWeek this year. Reach out to say hello if you'll be in Houston! #CERAWeek

FERC is taking a bold step in the PJM region. In a unanimous February 20 vote, the agency consolidated multiple dockets into a single review of tariff structures for co-located large loads. This move addresses rising digital demand - with forecasts of up to 30 GW additional peak load - and aims to resolve longstanding ambiguities in PJM’s Open Access Transmission Tariff. ⚡📈 As the 60-day public comment period begins, industry stakeholders, investors, and operators should watch closely how these reforms will reshape our regulatory landscape, balancing innovation with grid stability. 🔌💡 #Energy #FERC #PJM #GridStability #Regulation #MarketTrends For more information reach out to Karbone Research! Karbone Market View: FERC Confronts Co-Location Conundrum https://lnkd.in/eaJ6QaxW

Biogas and RNG markets are bracing for a flood of new supply as a wave of new facilities ramps up production in the opening weeks of 2025 after racing to begin operations before tax credit safe harbor provisions rolled off at the end of 2024. Recent discussions with market participants by Karbone Research indicate that roughly $800 million of new biogas and RNG Investment Tax Credit transfer sales reached initial close in late 2024 and early 2025, representing an additional 30% of ITC offers in an already record year. The rush to capture ITCs was partially predicated on the shift from the legacy Section 48 ITCs to the new “technology neutral” Section 48E credit. Facilities that hit “in service” marks before the end of 2024 were able to use the legacy credit, for which an established pool of buyers exists. The extra $800 million of ITCs represents a minimum of $1.6 billion in additional supply-side investment, which now must operate for the next five years to avoid “recapture” proceedings by the IRS. Different qualifying facilities will qualify for different treatment under EPA’s RVO, but prices for all D-codes have stabilized in the opening weeks of 2025 after a tumultuous close to 2024. For the underlying RNG product though, prices have remained at or below calendar-year lows in recent sessions, reflecting sustained oversupply and regulatory uncertainty. 

Fundamental price forecasts for D3 RINs prices imply that recent selloffs may be overdone. Karbone’s newly available D3 RIN merchant curve forecast shows that 2025 prices are likely to pop higher across all three base, low and high cases. Even the low case shows fundamental support at a floor 50 cents to a dollar per RIN over the general pricing level seen during the last Trump administration. Regulatory risk remains paramount, with every shift in the RVO outlook triggering price swings and fundamentals outlook revisions: Our supply-demand outlooks and balances show just how volatile this market will remain.