NEWS: Uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s policies isn’t just rattling financial markets, businesses and consumers. It’s also impacting the U.S. central bank.
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its March meeting, choosing to take a careful approach with how it steers the U.S. economy amid uncertainty over how the Trump administration’s agenda might impact the economy.
The environment puts the Fed in a tricky situation. The choice to deliberately slow the economy is never easy, but for the past three years, it’s at least been clear cut — as the labor market stayed resilient and inflation stayed elevated. But what happens when both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate need attention?
Trump’s policies — not just tariffs, but also federal spending cuts and layoffs, as well as stricter immigration — could push up both inflation and unemployment, economists say. Research suggests that companies often pass along higher import taxes to consumers. But on the other hand, tariffs make it harder for companies to produce as many goods and services, weighing on economic growth.
In the middle of Trump’s first-term trade war, Fed officials cut interest rates three times to help shore up economic growth. Yet, that was before price pressures burst in the aftermath of the pandemic. Inflation has cooled, but it’s still elevated, rising 2.8 percent in February from a year ago, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Fed officials might not be so quick to rescue the economy, as price pressures stay elevated.
There’s a common saying that economic growth requires certainty. Businesses can’t feel confident make investments or hiring decisions if they don’t know what to prepare for; consumers might pull back or feel less confident about making big-ticket purchases if they’re worried about the economy.
But it also matters a great deal for the Fed. If the dueling threats of higher inflation and weaker economic growth keep the Fed on the sidelines, it raises the risk that the Fed keeps borrowing costs too high for too long. Only in hindsight, though, will we know.
Whichever side of its mandate the Fed chooses — price stability or maximum employment — could have major implications for consumers’ wallets. What do you think the Fed should do in this environment: Keep inflation in check even if the job market starts to slow even more, or rescue the economy from a slowdown, even if prices might rise further?
Let me know in the comments, and read our recap of the decision: