How do you adjust your risk management strategies for uncertainty?

Managing risks in a program, especially amid uncertainty, is like steering a ship through a storm. Agile methods break down the journey, allowing you to adapt course quickly based on real-time feedback. Data and analytics are your navigational tools, helping you predict choppy waters. Communication is key: Be clear and relatable to stakeholders, using visual aids to make complex matters easy to grasp. This approach ensures that everyone, from the helm to the deck, understands and plays their part in navigating risks, making the voyage safer and more predictable.

I have seen too many times that people use risk assessment just to get to the answer they want then they move on. The best way is to use risk assessment as a tool to guide them for different feedback from different people. This is the only way to truly find out what could go wrong then you can work out the strategy to mitigate the potential risks.

In my experience, reinforcing assumption analysis with dynamic strategies enhances risk management in uncertainty. 🔄 Adopt Agile methodologies for continual risk and assumption reassessment. 🛠 Utilize technology for real-time risk monitoring and immediate issue detection. 💼 Ensure resource allocation flexibility, permitting adaptive responses to emergent challenges. 📌 Enriching risk management requires both rigorous assumption testing and the incorporation of adaptive, technologically-augmented strategies to navigate unpredictability effectively, ensuring both meticulous planning and nimble reactive capabilities are concurrently utilized.

You can also attach the possible impact of your assumptions - into simple categories - High, Medium, Low etc. This way, you'll know which assumptions can lead to more risks later and which are safe to make. For the assumptions with High impact, it is advisable to detail them down. Maybe you can get more clarity on them, incorporate some tasks and action items to reduce the uncertainty, and lower the impact. Even if you have to start the Program with some high-impact assumptions, that's ok if all stakeholders agree. REVIEW the assumptions regularly. This will help you catch any possible impact of the assumptions proactively and give you enough time to make adjustments.

If there's any surprise arising from an assumption, raise a flag immediately. You might want to raise a yellow flag first, so as to not send everyone in panic mode. Take some time and gather more information before deciding to change the colour to Red, or remove the flag. Note that the source of assumption could be one or more. Maybe Product team assumed the scope, and now there's a scope creep. Maybe there was an assumption on technical feasibility, and now the proposed technical solution doesn't work. In most of these cases, iterative approach can give early signals on success / failure on the path taken.

I am not sure how RACI will help here (mentioned in this section). What we need is RAIDs - Risks, Dependencies, Issues and Assumptions listed down in detail. This document should be shared with the stakeholders and regularly updated. If any stakeholder raises a concern on any of the assumptions, it should be assessed urgently to understand its possible impact on the program. If it turns out to be non-blocker, it should still be added to the RAID document and tracked.

It is a balance act to have flexibility but yet you have to be firm in your direction. Having too much flexibility feels like you are going all over the place. Being too rigid means you cannot adapt to surprises. Having positive culture, allowing people to try things and give them the opportunity to improve and not blame people if the surprises do arise. This is the ideal way to go.

Most of the strategies in the article focus on internal risks, instead of risks from outside sources. What have you failed to anticipate in the past that you could have been prepared for? If you think about Threats from the traditional SWOT analysis, think bigger than that. What are the trends in your industry? What are the emerging technologies that could impact your business? It may feel like a big game of "what if" but if you prioritize the risk by understanding the likelihood and severity and mitigate to lower the most urgent risks one by one then you'll be heading in the right direction. Continue to monitor the risks evolution over time and adjust the risk level so that you can continue to prioritize and mitigate.