How can you validate and refine estimation models based on project performance data?

2 How to validate estimation models?

Validating estimation models means checking whether your estimates are reasonable, realistic, and reliable, based on the available evidence and data. To do so, you can compare your estimates with similar projects or industry benchmarks to see if they are within a reasonable range or deviation. Utilizing multiple estimation methods or techniques, such as top-down, bottom-up, parametric, or analogical, can also help you cross-check and verify your estimates. Furthermore, reviewing your estimates with experts, peers, or stakeholders can provide feedback and insights to resolve any discrepancies or conflicts. Finally, testing your estimates with prototypes, simulations, or experiments can give you an idea of how they perform under different scenarios or conditions.

3 How to refine estimation models?

Refining estimation models means updating and improving your estimates based on the project performance data that you collect and analyze throughout the project lifecycle. To do so, you should track and measure the actual time, cost, scope, quality, and risk of your project activities, deliverables, and outcomes, and compare them with your estimates. Additionally, you should calculate and monitor the variance, accuracy, and error of your estimates to identify the root causes and impacts of any deviations or discrepancies. You can then apply corrective or preventive actions to address any issues or gaps in your estimates and adjust your project plan, budget, or schedule accordingly. Finally, using feedback loops and lessons learned can help you incorporate new information, knowledge, or best practices into your estimation models.

5 How to improve your estimation skills and competencies?

Estimation is not an exact science, but a skill that you can develop and enhance with practice and learning. To improve your estimation skills and competencies, you should keep a record of your models and results, and review them regularly to evaluate your performance. Additionally, it's beneficial to seek feedback and guidance from experts, mentors, or coaches, as well as participate in training or certification programs to update your knowledge and skills on the latest estimation methods. Lastly, joining professional networks or communities can be helpful in exchanging ideas, tips, or challenges with other project managers or estimators.

6 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?