PGP Investment Group

🚨 𝐁𝐞𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬, 𝐚 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐜𝐥𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐢𝐬 𝐮𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐥𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 — 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐨 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐭 𝐢𝐧 📊 Markets are moving fast, and so is the policy narrative. Tariffs. Inflation. Powell. Over the past few weeks, I have been closely following and diving deep into the evolving tension between the Trump administration’s Liberation Day tariffs and the Federal Reserve’s response. With Powell doubling down on inflation control and the dollar unexpectedly weakening, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Just published my latest macro research with charts, scenarios, and positioning ideas, including thoughts on: 📉 Will the Fed really cut rates in 2025? 💥 Is stagflation a real risk now? 📊 How are markets actually pricing in the policy divide? Would love to hear your take — who blinks first: the Fed or the White House ⁉️ 👉 Follow Danila Zagoruiko, Peach Garden Partners, PGP Investment Group #macroeconomics #federalreserve #tariffs #economicpolicy #markets #research

𝐖𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐉𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐆𝐨𝐭 𝐚 𝐑𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐂𝐡𝐞𝐜𝐤 ⁉️ Yesterday, markets didn’t just dip — they faceplanted 😬 Big Tech? Got clobbered. 🔻Google: -5.04% 🔻Meta: -4.47% 🔻Amazon: -4.58% 🔻Tesla: -4.42% 🔻Even the giants like Microsoft (-3.36%) and Apple (-2.50%) couldn’t escape the damage. What sparked the chaos? 𝙄𝙣𝙛𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣. 𝘼𝙜𝙖𝙞𝙣. The Fed’s favourite inflation gauge — core PCE — came in hotter than expected at 2.8% YoY. Translation? Inflation isn’t cooling fast enough, and the dream of early rate cuts might just be… on ice. And just when investors thought they had enough on their plates, Trump-era trade fears decided to make an uninvited return to the party. The major indices didn’t stand a chance: 🔻NASDAQ: -5% (oof) 🔻S&P 500: -2.5% 🔻Dow Jones: -2.2% It was a sea of red — like someone hit "select all" and pressed delete. While the Fed kept rates steady this month, sticky inflation means Powell & co. might need more convincing before cutting. Meanwhile, quietly in the background, gold rallied again 💡 The classic safe haven’s move higher says a lot: investors are nervous, hedging against uncertainty, and possibly questioning how much longer equities can hold up without a policy pivot 🤔 Moral of the story? Markets can dream about rate cuts — but inflation still writes the script. Where do you stand heading into Q2? Staying long, or starting to hedge? Source: Danila Zagoruiko, PGP Investment Group #markets #techselloff #inflation #PCE #FederalReserve #nasdaq #SP500 #investing #macroeconomics #stocks #tradinginsights

🌐 𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤𝐥𝐲 𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐩 📊 Last week, global markets experienced a mixed bag of performances across various asset classes as investors closely followed economic data, central bank signals, and geopolitical developments 🔄 🇺🇸 𝐔𝐒 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 📉 Equities: Major U.S. stock indices ended the week in the red, reflecting investor caution amidst global economic uncertainties: S&P 500: -3.0%, closing at 5,867. NASDAQ 100: -2.8%, at 19,373. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): -3.4%, at 42,342. 🔍 Bond Yields: U.S. Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 10-year yield climbing 15 basis points to 4.55% as inflation concerns persist: 3-Month: 4.30% (-2 bps WoW) 2-Year: 4.30% (+5 bps) 10-Year: 4.55% (+15 bps) 30-Year: 4.73% (+13 bps) 🌏 𝐀𝐬𝐢𝐚-𝐏𝐚𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 🇯🇵 Japan: The Nikkei 225 declined by 1.9%, closing at 38,702. The 10-Year JGB Yield saw a marginal rise of 1 basis point to 1.05%, as speculation grows around potential policy shifts from the Bank of Japan, particularly in response to wage growth and inflationary dynamics. 🇨🇳 China: The Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng both posted slight declines, with Hang Seng falling by 1.0% to 19,766. Investors remain cautious, as market participants await further stimulus measures and economic data to gauge the extent of China’s recovery efforts. 🇮🇳 India: The SENSEX Index showed a slight decline this week, driven by broader global headwinds and domestic inflation concerns. 🇪🇺 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞 📉 Equities: European markets also saw downward movement: DAX: -2.1%, closing at 19,970. FTSE 100: -2.3%, closing at 8,105. STOXX 50: -1.8%. 🔄 Bond Yields: European bond yields showed mixed movements. Germany’s 10-year bond yield rose by 5 basis points to 2.30%, while France’s 10-year bond yield climbed by 7 basis points to 3.11%. 💡 EU Outlook: Central bank officials are expected to take a more cautious approach to monetary tightening in the coming months, especially as signs of economic growth slow. Specifically, The Bank of England (BoE) maintained its key interest rate at 4.75%, due to weak demand and labour market conditions. Additionally, business activity in France and Germany showed only marginal improvement. In the latter, Chancellor Scholz's coalition government lost a vote of confidence, leading to an early election. 🛢️ 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗼𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀: Commodity markets were under pressure this week: Gold: $2,607 (-1.6%) Brent Crude Oil: $72.5 (-2.6%) WTI Crude Oil: $69.1 (-2.5%) LME Copper: $8,941 (-1.2%) 💡 Key Insight: A decline in industrial commodity prices, including copper, signals concerns over weakening global demand, while oil prices are responding to supply-demand imbalances. 🔍 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤 𝐀𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐝: US Consumer Confidence Index & UK GDP 📊 What are your thoughts on this week’s market movements? Let’s discuss! 💬 #GlobalMarkets #Economy #Investing #FinancialNews #Stocks #Bonds #Commodities #USMarkets #AsiaPacific #EuropeMarkets #MarketRecap

🌍📊𝐄𝐔 𝐁𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐬 𝐔𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐩𝐨𝐭𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐄𝐂𝐁’𝐬 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐂𝐮𝐭 📉🇪🇺 The European Central Bank’s 0.25% interest rate cut has sparked a wave of questions across markets. How does this policy shift influence the eurozone's sovereign debt dynamics? What are the opportunities for investors navigating a flattening yield curve and widening spreads between 🇮🇹 Italian and 🇩🇪 German bonds? And how can institutions strategically leverage lower funding costs to drive growth? In this report, we revisit the state of EU bonds post-November 22nd, providing actionable insights for policymakers, investors, and institutions to stay ahead in these uncertain times. Whether you're exploring yield trends, fiscal risks, or market fragmentation, this deep dive offers the clarity you need. Let’s unravel the strategies shaping the eurozone's financial future 🔍📈 𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐥𝐚𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐫: We are not financial advisors, all opinions are subjectively personal, and this material is distributed for informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. #Finance #ECB #EUbonds #Economics #InvestmentInsights

🌐 𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤𝐥𝐲 𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐩 📊 This week, markets delivered a mix of movements across asset classes as economic data, central bank signals, and geopolitical events shaped investor sentiment. Let’s dive into the highlights! 🔄 🇺🇸 𝐔𝐒 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 📈 Equities: Major U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance: S&P 500: +0.7%, closing at 6,075. NASDAQ 100: +2.5%, reaching 19,701. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): -0.3%, ending at 44,766. 💼 Labour Market: 227,000 jobs were added in November, surpassing expectations while unemployment ticked up slightly to 4.2%. 📉 Treasury Yields: Mixed movement across the curve as economic signals kept investors cautious: 3-Month: 4.41% (-8 bps WoW) 2-Year: 4.15% (flat) 10-Year: 4.17% (flat) 30-Year: 4.32% (-4 bps) 🛒 𝗙𝗲𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁: With December’s meeting looming, Governor Waller hinted at possible rate cuts, while Chair Powell emphasised economic strength, boosting hopes for a 25-bps reduction ✅ 🌏 𝐀𝐬𝐢𝐚-𝐏𝐚𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 🇯🇵 Japan: The Nikkei 225 rose by 2.3%, closing at 39,091. 10-Year JGB Yield: Edged up by 1 bp to 1.05%. Speculation grows around a January rate hike as BoJ Governor Ueda eyes wage growth as a key factor. 🇨🇳 China: Stimulus hopes and strong manufacturing data lifted markets: Shanghai Composite: +2.4%, closing at 3,407. Hang Seng Index: +2.4%, reaching 19,898. 🇰🇷South Korea: Political uncertainty escalated as the opposition moved to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol. Despite this, regulators pledged “unlimited liquidity” to stabilise markets🚨 🇪🇺 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞 📈 Equities: European indices rallied: DAX: +3.7%, closing at 20,359. CAC 40: +1.3%, reaching 7,331. FTSE 100: +0.7%, ending at 8,349. STOXX Europe 600: +2.0%, supported by easing political concerns and ECB signals. 🔄 𝗘𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰 𝗗𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗽𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀: France: Government turmoil after a no-confidence vote briefly shook markets, but Macron’s swift response stabilised conditions. Germany: Retail sales fell 0.5% in October, while industrial output dropped 1.0% MoM due to weakened machinery demand. ECB Outlook: Chief Economist Philip Lane emphasized a forward-looking policy approach as inflation nears the 2% target. 🇬🇧 UK: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s dovish remarks hinted at rate cuts in 2024, boosting investor optimism 🌈 🏅 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐨𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 Gold: $2,639 (-0.2%) Brent Crude Oil: $72.1 (+0.5%) WTI Crude Oil: $68.4 (+0.3%) LME Copper: $9,075 (+0.7%) 💡 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁: Copper’s rise reflects optimism over industrial demand, while oil prices stabilised as supply and demand aligned. 🔍 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤 𝐀𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐝: EU: ECB rate decision 🌐 Canada: BoC rate decision 🇨🇦 Australia: RBA rate decision 🇦🇺 Japan: Q3 GDP QoQ 📊 Germany: CPI data 📉 US: Core CPI 🇺🇸 UK: GDP 🇬🇧 Switzerland: SNB rate decision 🇨🇭 What are your thoughts on this week’s highlights? Let’s discuss! 💡💬 #GlobalMarkets #Economy #Investing #MarketRecap

🔍 𝐃𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐅𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐂𝐫𝐲𝐩𝐭𝐨 𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 Curious about how AI, quantum computing, and cutting-edge hardware are reshaping crypto mining? 🚀 With GPU prices soaring, ASICs dominating Bitcoin mining, and Ethereum setting new eco-standards, the landscape is rapidly evolving. Discover how miners are balancing profitability and sustainability while leveraging breakthrough technologies to stay ahead. 📖 Ready for the full insights? Explore the latest trends, challenges, and opportunities that could redefine crypto finance in 2024 and beyond. #CryptoMining #AI #QuantumComputing #Blockchain #CryptoFuture

🌍 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤𝐥𝐲 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐩 🚨 🇺🇲 𝐔.𝐒. U.S. equity markets delivered strong performances, with the Dow Jones gaining 1% to reach a record close and the S&P 500 advancing 0.5%. The NASDAQ 100 rose modestly by 0.3%. Treasury yields fell significantly across maturities, with the 10-year yield down 18 basis points to 4.22%, driven by confidence in Scott Bessent's nomination for Treasury Secretary and expectations for economic stability. On the economic front, robust consumer data showcased resilience, with personal income and spending exceeding expectations and pending home sales surging. In contrast, manufacturing data disappointed, with weaker-than-expected durable goods orders reflecting persistent challenges in the sector. Energy stocks lagged amid a 2.5% drop in Brent crude prices to $73.30 per barrel, as geopolitical easing lowered risk premiums. 🇪🇺 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞 European markets showed mixed performances amid regional tensions. The STOXX 50 fell 0.6%, and France’s CAC 40 dropped 1% as political instability intensified with Marine Le Pen's threats of a no-confidence motion. Germany’s DAX index gained 0.5%, supported by resilience in its labour market despite weak retail sales. Eurozone inflation rose to 2.3%, led by energy price base effects, though core inflation remained steady at 2.7%, underscoring the ECB’s challenge in balancing tightening policies with growth considerations. In the UK, the FTSE 100 climbed 0.2%, buoyed by a 14-month high in mortgage approvals, although weak retail sales and falling consumer confidence tempered optimism. 🌏 𝐀𝐬𝐢𝐚 Asian markets faced contrasting trends. Japan’s Nikkei 225 slid 0.2% as a stronger yen (JPY 150/USD) and geopolitical uncertainties weighed on sentiment. The latest inflation data exceeded expectations, fueling speculation of a potential BoJ rate hike. Stimulus measures were proposed, which included energy subsidies and cash handouts, to mitigate inflationary pressures and stimulate growth. 🇨🇳 Meanwhile, Chinese equities surged, with the Shanghai Composite (SSE) up 2%, driven by expectations of increased government support. However, liquidity concerns emerged after the PBoC injected RMB 900 billion but recorded a net withdrawal of RMB 550 billion for November due to heavy local government bond issuance. Optimism remains for additional policy measures in 2025 to stabilise growth. 🪙 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐨𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 The commodities sector weakened, reflecting global risk moderation. Gold fell 1.9% to $2,665 per ounce, while WTI crude oil dropped 3% to $69.10 per barrel. Copper, however, rose 0.4%, supported by expectations of Chinese stimulus measures. 📌 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤 𝐀𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐝 Markets are poised for significant data releases, including U.S. GDP figures, FOMC meeting minutes, and Core PCE inflation data. European CPI updates and China’s PMI will also shape global market sentiment. #MarketRecap #GlobalFinance #Equities #FixedIncome #Commodities #EconomicTrends

🌟 𝐁𝐥𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐬 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐄𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐫𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐏𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐟𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐨 🌟 Today we explore Blackstone Credit & Insurance (BXCI), the world’s largest alternative asset manager with $1.1 trillion in AUM, which has announced a transformative $3.5 billion investment in partnership with EQT Corporation (NYSE: EQT). BXCI will acquire a 49% equity stake in a joint venture focused on EQT’s interstate pipelines, unlocking growth potential for key projects like the Mountain Valley Pipeline expansion. More highlights about this $8.8 billion valuation deal below 👇 #PrivateEquity #EnergyInfrastructure #AlternativeInvestments #Blackstone #EQT

🌍 𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐀𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐬𝐢𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐧 𝐃𝐞𝐛𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐄𝐔 🧐 𝘞𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘰𝘯 𝘌𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘩 𝘪𝘴 𝘎𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘯 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘌𝘶𝘳𝘰𝘱𝘦𝘢𝘯 𝘋𝘦𝘣𝘵? Debt levels across the eurozone remain a critical issue. During the COVID-19 pandemic, government borrowing surged to support economies, but as of late 2024, debt-to-GDP ratios are still alarmingly high. Italy’s debt surpasses 140%, and Greece approaches 170%, sparking tough questions about sustainability amid rising interest rates and slowing growth. In this report, we unpack: 📉 The historical trends and current pressures shaping eurozone sovereign debt. 📊 Insights into market reactions, borrowing costs, and fiscal sustainability concerns. ⚖️ The ECB’s role in managing financial fragmentation and supporting vulnerable economies. Join us as we delve into the structural vulnerabilities and policy responses defining the European debt narrative. #EconomicAnalysis #SovereignDebt #Eurozone #ECB #FinancialStability

📊𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤𝐥𝐲 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐩 📈 🇺🇲 𝐔.𝐒. - The PCE price index for October is expected to show a 0.3% rise from September and a 2.8% YoY increase. This, along with resilient consumer spending and steady income growth, will likely reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance on interest rate cuts. Despite concerns, a December rate cut remains uncertain. - Meanwhile, the bond market is showing signs of stabilisation after a prolonged selloff, with investors stepping in at peak yield levels 🤑 🇪🇺 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞 - Inflation in the euro area is set to accelerate, with forecasts pointing to 2.3% in November, the highest in four months. ECB’s consumer-price expectations survey and remarks from policymakers will be key. - However, EUR/USD dropped to its lowest point since 2022 as the PMI for services and manufacturing weakened. Political challenges in Germany and France combined with the prospect of US tariffs further pressured the currency 💸 🇨🇳 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚 - Last month's PMI figures indicated a positive shift in both the factory and service sectors, signalling potential early signs of Beijing's stimulus measures taking effect. 🇯🇵 𝐉𝐚𝐩𝐚𝐧 - Core inflation rose 2.3% in October YoY, slightly down from September's 2.4% but above the consensus of 2.2%. The data supports the Bank of Japan's view that underlying inflation remains solid despite the slight moderation in price gains. 🌍 𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬 𝐀𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐝 🔜 📌 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗮𝘆: Germany's Ifo index of business expectations, the first since Trump's re-election and tariff concerns. 📌𝗧𝘂𝗲𝘀𝗱𝗮𝘆: The Fed’s early-November meeting to gauge the likelihood of a third consecutive rate cut in December. 📌𝗪𝗲𝗱𝗻𝗲𝘀𝗱𝗮𝘆: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand may opt for a significant rate cut, likely around half a percentage point. 📌𝗙𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘆: In the UK, the Bank of England is expected to grab all attention with Governor Andrew Bailey's address to business leaders and the publication of its latest financial stability report. #MarketRecap #Inflation #Eurozone #Fed #ECB #ChinaEconomy #InterestRates #Investing