Como criar uma previsão financeira realista para uma startup?

Let's look at a specific case: If the startup is an e-commerce platform, revenue drivers might include the number of active users, the conversion rate of visitors into customers, the average order value and the frequency of purchase. Understanding these drivers allows you to make more accurate projections about future revenue and make informed strategic decisions.

Understand what customers pay for - products, services, software, transaction fees. For SaaS, focus on licensing and add-ons. Use per user, usage-based, or per module pricing. For marketplaces, we prioritize gross merchandise value and take rates. Employ freemium models for adoption, charge for premium tiers. Multi-year prepaid deals boost cash flow. Identify go-to-market channels - direct, online, partners. Understand customer use cases and ROI drivers when pricing - don't just use cost-plus. Different tiers should align with where customers derive value. Be flexible - monthly, annual, multi-year commitments. View pricing through customer lens, what outcomes justify pricing. Simplicity trumps complexity.

This is for SaaS: Identify your primary revenue streams, including license subscriptions to software, professional services, and training. Then develop your pricing model based on the number of seats, modules, devices, or usage buckets. Consider tiered pricing for different levels of service or functionality. Multi-Year Deals: Highlight the importance of multi-year deals that are paid up front (great for cashflow). Analyze your target market size and growth, customer base, and market penetration rate. Examine the competitive dynamics. Sales Channels: Identify the channels through which you will sell your products, such as direct sales, online platforms, and channel partners. As a startup you want to stand the shoulder of giants.

Let us assume Tasty Toppings," a startup offering unique and delicious sprinkle mixes for desserts. What are the Revenue Drivers: Identify factors affecting Tasty Toppings' sales. This includes: #Target Market: Size and demographics (age, income) of potential customers who love baking and enjoy specialty ingredients. #Product Pricing: Cost per sprinkle mix and any discounts offered. #Marketing Strategy: Free samples, influencer partnerships, social media presence. #Sales Channels: Online store, farmers markets, partnerships with bakeries. Identify your North Star Metric: This is your key performance indicator (KPI) reflecting overall success. ##Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC): . ##Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR):

Forecasting revenue in a startup requires a strategic approach based on several key metrics and considerations. For example, forecasting revenue for a SaaS startup should consider the revenue model (per user, per module, per usage, or any combination of these), pricing strategy (cost-plus, skimming, penetration, value-based, etc.), price of service, customer acquisition cost (CAC), and other relevant factors. It's important to recognize that startups, especially in their early stages, often face significant uncertainty. Therefore, it's best to develop different scenarios, such as best-case, worst-case, and most likely outcomes, to provide a more comprehensive view of potential financial performance.

It’s so easy to spend money. For us, 80% of cash use is related to people and commissions. Salaries, benefits, taxes+ commissions. Overhead like rent, utilities, insurance are significant fixed costs. Variables for us are cloud cloud services (do the math to see if you should bring inhouse). Account for customer acquisition costs across channels – software, digital spend, ad buys. When doing the marketing budget work backwards from the target "magic number" for ROI. Account for operations like supplies, software, admin. Overseas engineers dont always save money so weigh the pros/cons.

My approach is to estimate as best all the expenses but in a conservative manner. For instance, if you company is eligible to tax reductions (R&D etc.), research grants etc., know it but do not take them into account. This will force you to consider your runway in the worst case scenario, likely giving you valuable extra months when the time comes.

To calculate the cost of running a startup, identify all expenses associated with operations. This includes fixed costs like rent, utilities, salaries, and equipment, as well as variable costs such as marketing, materials, and inventory. Additionally, factor in one-time expenses like initial investments or legal fees. Projecting future costs involves estimating growth-related expenses as the business scales. By meticulously analyzing each expense category and forecasting future expenditures, startups can develop a comprehensive budget that accurately reflects the financial requirements of running the business, aiding in financial planning and decision-making.

Financial forecasting is essential for startups, requiring estimation of various costs to create a realistic financial picture. 1. Fixed Costs: • Office Space • Equipment • Legal and Professional Fees • Insurance • Software and Licenses • Salaries 2. Variable Costs: • Raw Materials/Inventory • Shipping and Freight • Marketing and Advertising • Sales Commissions • Utilities • Travel Expenses • Customer Support 3. Administrative Costs: • Accounting and Bookkeeping • Bank Fees • Office Supplies • Communication 4. Research and Development (R&D): • Product Development • Market Research 5. Contingency Fund 6. Taxes: • Income Tax • GST • Employment Taxes Strong financial forecasts guide smart business decisions for startup success.

Money in and Money Out. Add all recurring subscriptions, services fees, upfront multi-year payments. Offer incentives for upfront multi-year to improve cash position and reduce late payment risk. Project outflows: operating expenses, capital expenditures, tax obligations. Try to push for 90 days. Focus on cash conversion cycle - time between outlay and receipt. Create detailed monthly/quarterly cash flow statements to identify potential shortages/surpluses in advance. Private equity firms do it on a weekly basis.

When doing cash flow planning, I suggest to especially focus on learning about size, timing and risk of CF items. Size: Try to identify the items with the largest positive (= inflows) and negative (= outflows) impacts on cash. Inflows are probably coming mainly from different revenue buckets whereas outflow might come from people cost or CAPEX. Timing: Based on the P&L model, you will be able to identify in which months or quarters certain sizeable in- and outflows will happen. Especially businesses with high seasonality will need to think about CF timing. Risk: Each CF item will have risk associated to it. Deviations can lead to way more positive (such as more revenue) or negative (unexpectedly higher CAPEX) flows vs. expectations.

Cash flow management is an important step for the survivability of the start-up business. The monetary outflow will be quicker than the inflow and hence, DSO (days of sales outstanding) is to be monitored. The contract nature (upfront implementation fee, annual subscription, higher termination fee etc) would ensure steady cash forecast. 30 days credit period of 30 and 60 days for client and vendor respectively may be agreed upon to reduce working capital strain. The investment (technology, facility, tools etc.) require upfront capital. So, while the major cost (people, operation, tax etc.) are time-bound, necessary cash to be reserved through continuous collection. Deferred payment to vendor is not encouraged as it hits reputation.

Start with Sales Forecast: Use your earlier sales forecast to estimate incoming cash. Tools like Excel or Google Sheets can help create a detailed revenue timeline. Estimate Incoming Payments: Factor in payment terms. If customers pay net 30 days, adjust your cash flow projections accordingly to reflect when you’ll actually receive payments. List All Expenses: Compile all anticipated expenses, including fixed and variable costs, and schedule them according to when they’ll be paid. Software like QuickBooks can streamline this process. Create a Cash Flow Statement: Use your sales and expense data to build a cash flow statement that outlines expected inflows and outflows over a specific period.

Cash flow management is crucial, especially for startups. Stay on top of it! Understanding cash flow—distinct from profit—helps you manage payment timings effectively. It prevents running out of cash despite profits. Always project your inflows and outflows and maintain a cash reserve. Proper cash flow planning keeps your startup operational and stress-free

Most companies underachieve in ARR and overachieve in expenses (ouch). Use data to validate your model. Look at attainment data, expense patterns, and cash flow trends (is it really net 30 days?) Ramp-Up Time for Salespeople: Recognize that most salespeople take longer to ramp up and hit their numbers. Consider providing six-month quotas to help account executives (AEs) ramp faster and become productive sooner. Employee Churn: Factor in employee churn particularly among salespeople, when planning for sales capacity. Consider the associated resources attached to AEs, such as business development representatives (BDRs) and sales engineers (SEs). Conduct scenario analysis by creating best-case, worst-case, and most-likely scenarios.

Adjust assumptions: A start-up creating a financial forecast for a new app may need to adjust assumptions about user acquisition costs based on initial marketing tests. Review scenarios: A food delivery start-up might create scenarios for different growth rates in order to anticipate how changes in market conditions could impact revenue projections. Test assumptions: A tech start-up developing a new product may need to test assumptions about production costs by getting quotes from manufacturers. Use sensitivity analysis: A clothing start-up could use sensitivity analysis to see how changes in material costs affect profit margins.

Recognize most sales reps take time to ramp up - provide 6-month quotas to accelerate productivity. Factor in employee churn, especially sales, and associated resource impacts like BDRs and SEs. Conduct scenario analysis with best/worst/likely cases to understand variable impacts. Periodically review and update assumptions based on actual performance and market changes. Adjust as needed. It's typical for sales to underperform and marketing to overspend initially, so factor these things.

Developing an accurate financial forecast is crucial for any startup. This process requires careful consideration of various factors and underlying assumptions. Here are key areas to focus on for a realistic financial projection: • Market Research • Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) • Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) • Customer Churn Rate • Revenue Streams • Cost Structure • Growth Rate • Funding Rounds • Economic Conditions • Contingency Plans By carefully adjusting these assumptions based on thorough research, industry benchmarks, and realistic expectations, you can create a reliable financial forecast that serves as a strong foundation for planning and decision-making within your startup.

One major technique for creating a realistic financial forecast for a newly started startup is to employ a bottom-up approach. Instead of relying solely on top-down estimates, break down your forecast into specific components such as customer acquisition costs, product development expenses, and operational overhead. By analyzing each aspect individually and building your forecast from the ground up, you can ensure that your projections are based on concrete data and realistic assumptions, leading to a more accurate financial outlook.

Show how you get to the sharp ARR YoY growth rates. TCV, ACV growth, logo growth and overall deal sizes can explain your assumptions. If your salespeople regularly achieve their targets, be realistic about their quota growth. Build in price increases in your customer contracts to protect yourself in inflationary environments. Also factor: Break-Even Analysis, Funding Requirements (6 months cushion) I also like to show sequential improvements in GMs and narrowing operating loss. Cohort analysis goes a long way and you want to show net dollar retention metrics and how existing customer expand. Economic Conditions: No one wants to blame the macro for missing the quarter but do be aware of changes in the overall environment.

Creating a realistic financial forecast for a start-up requires blending quantitative analysis with qualitative insights. This means not only basing projections on historical data and market trends but also incorporating the founders' vision, industry expert opinions, and potential disruptive factors. By balancing hard data with a nuanced understanding of market dynamics and internal capabilities, start-ups can develop financial forecasts that are both ambitious and grounded, offering a strategic roadmap that anticipates challenges and opportunities.

The biggest factor in creating a realistic financial forecast requires being...real. I know, sounds trite and discounts everything listed here. But it's a huge issue for founders, especially those seeking funding. I have met founders who are looking for $300K, but should be looking for mid-7-figure investments, and others looking for 7-figure investments but will struggle to spend that kind of money, given where they are in R&D. Instead of basing financials on so-called valuations (which are subjective), I recommend that founders consider the costs associated with getting to the next stage of their business growth, including themselves getting paid. Female founders especially don't worry about their personal income. They should.

Economic Conditions: Stay attuned to macroeconomic factors that could impact your business, such as inflation rates or changes in consumer spending. Customer Behaviour: Monitor shifts in customer preferences or purchasing patterns. Tools like Google Analytics can help track user engagement and sales trends. Competitive Landscape: Keep an eye on competitors’ strategies and market positioning. Changes in their pricing or product offerings could necessitate adjustments to your assumptions. Regulatory Changes: Be aware of any legal or regulatory changes that could impact your operations or costs.