Dexter Ventures reposted this
Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are a wrecking ball swinging at the US and the world economy - and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. Back in 1930, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act hiked US tariffs, tanked trade by 66%, and kicked off the Great Depression - 10 years of misery. History screams, Trump’s tariffs will could also end badly. Yet there’s a slim chance it forces countries like India to step up. Here’s why it’s mostly a disaster, but not all doom and gloom. .. For China, it’s a deflation bomb. They’ve got a $1 trillion trade surplus - selling way more than they buy. Tariffs cut that, leaving factories empty and prices dropping as they scramble to sell cheap. Bad for them, but the US? Imports get pricier. The Fed said in 2023 that 2018 tariffs added 0.2% to US inflation. This could more than double that to 0.5%. And, US GDP growth’s pegged at 2.5% for 2025 (IMF)—tariffs could shave off half a percent, stalling jobs. .. India’s not escaping either, but it’s not a total knockout. The U.S. buys 18% of India’s $800 billion exports (including services) - $144 billion. Short term pain for these exporters is inevitable - 3 to 9 months of tighter profits, maybe layoffs in small firms. India’s 6.5% GDP growth might dip to 6%. The good thing is, pharma, a $50 billion chunk, is safe from tariffs. For others though, times are bound to be tough. And that takes me back to 1991. India faced a crisis - $400 million in reserves - and roared back with reforms. Today, with $700 billion in forex and a 1.44 billion-strong market, India’s tougher than most. .. The world’s a mess already: US-China spats, Ukraine-Russia, Israel-Hamas and tariffs pour fuel on it. Countries might gang up, forming new trade clubs to dodge the US bully. India’s got muscle - stronger politically, a big home market - and could lead a new trade order. Thus, I would say, it’s a 80% pain, 20% potential kind of a situation. You’ll feel it at the stores; India might limp, then leap. What do you think? Devendra | Dexter Capital Advisors