The Demographics Group

Summary of my column in The Weekend Australian Magazine 5-6 April $5.50 p/w https://lnkd.in/gkv8rTYe The last beacon of ‘old Australia’ was, I think, 1966 when according to the census, 73 per cent of dwellings were owned outright or with a mortgage. By the 2021 Census home ownership had slipped to 63 per cent.  A social revolution ensued changing the way Australians formed relationships and lived. Renting became more popular.   Australia’s political landscape changed with the times: out with the Coalition, in with Gough Whitlam’s Labor party. Germain Greer published her seminal book The Female Eunuch in 1970. Australia’s archaic divorce laws loosened in 1975 with the advent of no-fault divorce.  Television was ablaze with soap operas in the 1970s that reflected the social mores of the times namely Number 96. Sydney’s Mardi Gras first took place in 1978. Here were the foundations of an Australia that we might recognise today. But then perhaps Australia undergoes transformative change more or less every 60 years.  The Australia of 1906 was a very much a loyal outpost of Britain. The transformation that took place over the following 60 years included new developments like the telephone, the motor car, as well as the rise of a middle class and the wider application of income tax.   In 2086 within sight of the end of the 21st century will today’s Australia be recognisable? What will be the proportion of home ownership? And from whence will come our cultural references:   will it be London, San Francisco or somewhere in Asia?  The Australia of today is a vastly different place to the Australia of 1966. Our immigration program is bigger. Technology has changed the way we work, communicate, find relationships. Our worries have shifted from the falling to ‘domino effect’ to climate issues. Political tensions have switched from ‘class’ to progressive versus conservative thinking. Could an Australian of today could find any common ground with an Australian of 1906, 1966, 2086? I think so; that common ground is surely an awareness of the abundance of our resources and our quite irrepressible collective hope for the future.

Summary of my column in The Weekend Australian Magazine 29-30 March $5.50 p/w: https://lnkd.in/gHh93adr When I started speaking more than 20 years ago audience members would often suggest I go into politics. The idea never appealed to me.   It's popular to be critical of the political class. However the political class is a microcosm of Australia: there’s the good, the bad, the quiet achievers… even the odd opportunist. When politicians come under pressure, I often wonder what’s going on in their homelife. Do their kids cop flak at school? Are their partners upset? I understand running a government is a tough business. However it seems to me that the cut and thrust of political life has stepped up (or fallen) a notch. Perhaps this is part of the winnowing process where only the toughest survive the process. Maybe it’s only those with the clearest views of a future Australia who have the fortitude to pursue a career in politics. I have no ‘friends’ in politics, no special insight into the political process. I am an Australian citizen, resident and patriot who has observed the political process from afar.  In this respect I am part of middle Australia. I want to see the best for our nation. I want to see a political process that attracts the brightest talent from an early age to commit to a life in politics.  And especially talent with early life experience outside the world of politics and having had exposure to running a business, employing people, dealing with customers, navigating regulatory requirements.   My logic is simple: the deeper the pool of talent the better the quality of candidates.  I think we will generate a deeper pool of candidates if we make the political experience kinder, gentler, more supportive of private lives and families. 

Summary of my column in The Australian 27 March $4.50 p/w https://lnkd.in/gSUSBMu6 Single-person households jumped 62 per cent over the 20 years to 2021. No other household type could match the scale of this increase.  Interestingly, the official outlook to 2041 is for more net growth in households without kids (inc couples, singles) up 1.9 million, than for households with kids (couple-with-kids, one-parent families) up 1.2 million.   Singles peak at age 29; thereafter single life subsides in favour of coupledom and children.  The time in the lifecycle when single life is most consistently eschewed is 38-41 which is when kids arrive.  However during the 40s single life regains popularity. And there’s a bump at age 54 when the proportion of singles jumps by almost a full percentage point (of the population in that age group), and again at 59 when there’s another shift into singledom. It’s almost as if Australians make life decisions around key milestones: commit to a relationship (if you haven’t already found one) after age 29; make a decision to end a relationship at 54 when retirement planning becomes necessary; or simply end a relationship it isn’t working at age 59.  “After all,” it might be concluded, “life’s too short to spend an extended retirement in an unhappy relationship.”  Outside these now-or-never years (29, 54, 59) the surge towards singledom ratchets up between 82 and 90 when singledom is imposed by the loss of a life partner. From the age of 91 onwards fewer Australians live singly but rather opt for an assisted living arrangement of some sort. If the middle decades of the 20th century in Australia were all about suburbia and the family, the early decades of the 21st century offers a different narrative.  

Summary of my column in The Weekend Australian Magazine 22-23 March 2025 $5.50 p/w: https://lnkd.in/gx4PNR_V A decade ago, between the 2011 and 2016 Censuses barista ranked as the 10th fastest growing job (in absolute terms) on the Australian continent. There was even talk in demographic circles of an emerging ‘barista belt’ across certain suburbs. Interestingly, the term barista wasn’t much used prior to the 1980s. Australia seemed cottoned-on to and commandeered the concept from the 1990s onwards. In those heady resources boom years we Australians ‘leant into’ the European concept of a café society. Also ranking highly at this time (in job growth) was kitchenhand and chef. By the time of the next intercensal period, 2016-2021, barista jobs were still growing but at a subdued rate. And the reason is, I suspect, that there was a shift in national priorities. This nation’s current fastest growing job, according to ABS census and follow-up surveys, is the job of aged and disable carer. Also on the up are jobs in child care and nursing.  Out with ‘café society’ in with ‘care economy.’ And the oldest baby boomer is just 79 in 2025. The business end of the care industry is about to get underway! What I have always liked about ‘demographics’ is the way society subtly shifts its language to reflect an underlying tectonic shifts. ‘Gap year’ entered the lexicon as Millennials travelled overseas in the early 2000s. And ‘barista’ was borrowed from the Italian with rise of our café culture. Surely at some point in the late 2020s we will invent or borrow a term from another language to acknowledge and to celebrate the work of Australia’s rising care industry (as we did with ‘barista’).  Personally, I like ‘carista’.

Summary of my column in The Weekend Australian Magazine 15-16 March 2025, $5.50 p/w: https://lnkd.in/gpnrHNbm After a lifetime of looking at the lives and lifestyles of the Australians what have I learned?  As an overarching conclusion my observation is that Australians are, on average, driven by the pursuit lifestyle. We are a prosperous and a generally tolerant people. Since the end of WWII we have welcomed millions into our communities including international students who cluster in university precincts. We have developed our modern nation through agriculture and mining creating narratives around regional life such as Clancy of the Overflow. But today young Australians typically leave the regions after high school and make their way to big cities in search of job opportunities, education and training.  And then after university there’s often another migration to destinations overseas on so-called gap years.  Later in life expat Aussies return; during the pandemic familial bonds drew many home. Plus, now that the post-work stage in the lifecycle can extend for decades we have created lifestyle regions within striking distance of capital cities. Our biggest cities are divided. Middle Australia now dominates the middle suburbs. Low income households follow public housing often located near the city’s edges. The inner city is largely the preserve of the well to do, of the educated, of the childless, of those least likely to have any form of religious affiliation. Perhaps the most impactful social shift over the last half century has been the postponement of couples having children from early- to late-20s. The introduction of ‘no-fault divorce’ in 1975 freed many from the bonds of an unhappy relationship. By age 55 many couples downshift and downsize.  Grandchildren typically arrive when grandparents are in their 60s. And so while we most certainly have our problems in Australia including the cost of living, I can’t see another country that offers a better quality of life for 27 million people. Let’s work together and collectively deliver solutions that will help us all.

I recently recorded a to-camera piece for the (Australian) charity Violet which provides support for those in the final stages of life.  In this 90-second clip I talk about how the first-wave of the baby boomer generation will soon trip across the 85-line. This is part a series of observations I make about the rise of the ‘sandwich generation.' Today this cohort comprises mostly Gen-Xers in their (late) 50s caring for elderly parents in their late 80s while also supporting their 20-something kids as they navigate work, relationships, saving for a house.  And on top of this, the ‘Sandwich Generation’ must attend to their own personal relationships, work commitments and health issues. In the wider series I talk about how the loss of a parent at any time, but most commonly in the 80s, has an impact on younger family members.  I might add that sadly, and for a number of reasons, not everyone comes from a cohesive, supportive, family which means that often there’s a very real need for support in the final stages of life. Lots to unpack, to consider, to better understand as baby boomers hurtle en masse towards their 80s in the late 2020s and beyond.  For more on The Sandwich Generation follow this link set up by Violet https://lnkd.in/gUs8sAy7 Also, see the 90-second to-camera clip here

Summary of my column in The Weekend Australian Magazine $5.50 p/w https://lnkd.in/gRsZFKuT More than 30 per cent of the Australian population was born overseas. This proportion at the 1947 census was 10 per cent. At that time, the influence of England was evident in our diet, in our religious affiliations, in the language we used, in the configuration of our homes.  Post war immigration did include England’s ‘£10-poms’ however it was the Greeks and the Italians who effected the greatest social change on Aussie culture.  By the 1980s tea had given way to coffee. Pizza and olive oil were part of our diet. Anglo Australians absorbed the new arrivals’ penchant for kissing each other on the cheek. And alfresco dining infiltrated not just cafes but also the home. Our cultural reference points have been England first then the European provinces of Provence and Tuscany. More recently our design inspiration has been Scandinavian minimalism with its white and soft tone interiors. However the fastest rising immigrant force in Australia is now the Indian community with its languages, religious affiliations, cuisines and commitment to multi-generational households.  If Australia’s preference for cherry-picking the best ‘lifestyle bits’ of other cultures is to continue, then surely, we will see an Australian-Indian fusion culture emerge later this decade? But apart from cuisine (we’ve already absorbed Indian food) perhaps the most obvious influence could come in the form of design. India is a land of vibrant colour as evidenced by the individualistic and colourful sari. Perhaps we will see a new cultural influence emerge that allows for the odd splash of subdued colour in white interiors.      No design preference remains unchallenged forever and so perhaps it’s time for minimalism to give way to ‘maximalism’ and for our design palette to include at least the option of colour.  After all, at some point in the 2030s if not earlier our current monochromatic colour palette could be regarded as, well, a tad sterile and dated.

Join me, Simon Kuestenmacher and Hari Hara Priya Kannan for a breakfast presentation Tuesday 3 December 7-9 am Rydges Hotel South Bank Brisbane, in a collaboration with the Queensland Farmers' Federation on the #agribusiness demographics outlook for 2025. Simon opens with an assessment of workforce trends in agriculture. Hari follows with the impact of technology including AI on farming. I will present data on and talk about the big-picture outlook for Australia, for Queensland and for farming. We will jointly put the case as to why you should be confident about--indeed have faith in--the future of Australia, of Queensland, of agriculture. To book your seat ($95 pp inc breakfast) follow the link: https://lnkd.in/gu2kPJip

Summary Weekend Australian Magazine column $5.50 p/w It is one of the most impactful pieces of communication I have experienced. It is Charles’ televised eulogy to his mother, the Queen, broadcast days after her death in September 2022. (It is available on the internet.) Here is why I love this speech so much. I have no doubt that Charles’ eulogy was written by him. It was deeply personal. But I am also sure it was reviewed by palace advisors, wordsmiths and protocol experts. Charles spoke for nine minutes. The eulogy comprised more than 1500 words. There’s scope in every sentence for genuinely heartfelt meaning to be misinterpreted. The speech was tightly written. Charles speaks of his darling mama, his dear papa, his darling Camilla. He refers to William and Catherine and Harry and Meghan. But he doesn’t name anyone else; he keeps the focus on his family and on the realm.  He refers to the UK and to the Church of England, but no other country or institution by name. He makes no mention of the sadness of his siblings who are also not referenced (and for specific reason in one case). And then, in his closing sentence Charles looks solemnly to camera and delivers the piece de resistance of this thoughtful eulogy when he says, “May flights of angels sing thee to thy rest.” I had not heard or read this phrase previously. It electrified me. The phrase is taken from Hamlet, written 420 years earlier. Charles dropped it in as if these words belonged to the institution of Britain. Here we have 1500 words constructed for the purpose of a 21st-century eulogy to be broadcast globally, perfected by the best writers in Britian, and yet these words are eclipsed by nine words conceived by a bloke with a quill & ink four centuries earlier.   The lesson here is to think carefully about how communication is constructed; it is always pitched to the occasion and to the audience. And, regardless of your views on the monarchy, on this occasion I think Charles got it exactly right. This isn’t simply a eulogy, it’s an exemplar of good communication. See https://lnkd.in/gTK74S9V

Here is a 2-min clip of me speaking about the demographic and cultural forces shaping the consumer spending and property market in Melbourne in the years ahead. This is a clip taken from the "Australia 2025" business breakfast event held by The Demographics Group at Melbourne's Grand Hyatt hotel in October 2024. The audience comprised 150 mostly business people from the property, finance, manufacturing, government, retail, tech, healthcare and agribusiness sectors. Many thanks to The Jasper Picture Company for filming.